After we lined Defensive Participant of the Yr odds, we dived into why making a minus-money wager earlier than the season even begins is unwise. Sure, Victor Wembanyama might be going to win the award, however the worth there simply is not worthwhile. There’s much more threat than reward at a minus-money worth.
Effectively, right here we’ve yet one more award with a minus-money favourite. The longest odds you could find on Cooper Flagg proper now to win 2025-26 NBA Rookie of the Yr are -175 at DraftKings. But there are three vital variations between Rookie of the Yr and Defensive Participant of the Yr that really make Flagg an affordable wager:
- There isn’t a 65-game minimal for eligibility. Certain, if Flagg misses half of the season, he in all probability will not win. However you will not have to fret about counting absences. You may win this award taking part in 50 video games. Patrick Ewing did so. Brandon Roy performed 57 in 2007. You simply get much more flexibility on the subject of accidents on this award than you do the others.
- Workforce efficiency does not matter. Sure, Flagg goes to be on a staff that goals to be aggressive, however in Wembanyama’s case, he’s counting on the Spurs to be a fairly profitable staff protection in an effort to win Defensive Participant of the Yr. That will not be the case for Flagg. As the perfect rookies are typically excessive draft picks and excessive draft picks typically belong to unhealthy groups, voters are much more understanding if an important prospect lands on a dropping staff. Most winners miss the playoffs.
- The truth that staff efficiency does not matter signifies that statistics are likely to play an outsize position in choosing winners right here. Protection will be considerably opaque. How do you measure a shot-blocker’s worth in opposition to a point-of-attack guard’s? We do not have nice defensive metrics. It is less complicated the place rookies are involved. The winner is normally the participant who accumulates probably the most factors, rebounds and assists. We have by no means had a Rookie of the Yr winner common single digits in factors, for example, and up to now 20 years, solely Stephon Fortress (in a traditionally weak class) and Malcolm Brogdon (who received solely as a result of Joel Embiid acquired harm) have been under 15. That is related as a result of only a few rookies even obtain sufficient of a possibility to attain that a lot. Typically talking, you will know who many of the candidates are going right into a given season. Brogdon was the final winner picked outdoors of the lottery, and once more, he received as a result of Embiid did not. So trimming the sphere right here is straightforward. That is not the case for Defensive Participant of the Yr, which encompasses all the league.
So whereas I couldn’t endorse a Wembanyama Defensive Participant of the Yr wager, I believe Flagg is not less than an affordable selection. He might be virtually everybody’s decide, together with mine, so if you are going to wager on this award, you are in all probability simply on the lookout for worthwhile locations to hedge. So the place will you discover them? Once more, consider what we simply lined. You are not on the lookout for delicate, worthwhile position gamers on good groups. You are on the lookout for gamers who will put up huge numbers. Placing up huge numbers as a rookie normally means taking part in on a foul staff prepared to allow you to make errors within the identify of progress.
We’re not going to trouble dividing into tiers this time as a result of the pool is so small and there are so few practical candidates. As a substitute, we’ll merely undergo the notable names and decide who’s and isn’t a viable wager on the odds at present out there.
The opposite participant projected as a possible future star within the 2025 NBA Draft was Dylan Harper. He will be discovered at +1200 on BetMGM proper now, and that’s frankly a sucker’s wager. He shares a backcourt with De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Fortress. Devin Vassell takes a variety of pictures. Wembanyama makes use of much more possessions than the common heart. Harper simply is not going to have the ball sufficient to significantly compete for a stats-based award. That he is additionally recovering from a thumb harm is simply the icing on this disappointing cake. Harper goes to be an important NBA participant. He’s not going to win Rookie of the Yr.
It is a comparable story for No. 3 decide VJ Edgecombe, out there at +1000 at a number of books. He was nice at Summer season League. He is supposedly appeared nice at camp. He’s additionally, at greatest, fourth within the pecking order offensively for Philadelphia, and will doubtlessly be the No. 3 participant at his personal place with Jared McCain returning and Quentin Grimes taking part in for a contract. If Edgecombe is a profitable participant as a rookie, that is an unlimited win for Philadelphia. It simply doesn’t suggest he is prone to put up Rookie of the Yr numbers.
Okay, so the No. 2 and No. 3 picks are out. The place can we discover worth within the lottery? At picks No. 4, 5 and 6. Tre Johnson is out there at +1200 at DraftKings. Ace Bailey is out there at +1800 on Caesars. Kon Knueppel has the longest odds of the trio at +2800. He’s the least attention-grabbing of the three simply contemplating the presence of LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, to not point out older ball-handlers like Collin Sexton and Tre Mann. There are already fairly a number of cooks in that kitchen, so he is possible going to principally be an off-ball participant early on. Nonetheless, the chances are promising, and Ball and Miller each have harm histories that recommend they’re going to miss time and cede pictures to teammates. I would not be loopy about Knueppel, however he is a justifiable portfolio addition.
Johnson and Bailey are going to get to take one million pictures. Of the 2, I am much more considering Johnson. Excessive-volume 3-point capturing is much likelier to pop statistically and generate highlights than Bailey’s extra mid-range targeted recreation, and whereas I do not count on both to be prolific playmakers early on, Johnson, simply by advantage of being a guard, might be going to have extra probabilities to rack up assists. Bailey’s teammate Walter Clayton (+4000) is equally attention-grabbing. He is already 22, so the training curve might be shorter for him than most rookies, and he’ll have each alternative to deal with the ball early on.
Go right down to No. 8 and you discover our first vital lengthy shot, Egor Demin, who is out there at +12500. Demin’s main defect is his capturing. That is additionally an award that Ben Simmons received. Large ball-handlers with the passing gene typically look higher with NBA spacing than they do on the school stage, and the Nets might be desirous to let Demin cook dinner after all the criticism they took for choosing him at No. 8. I would not count on him to win, however 125-to-1 within the occasion that Flagg bows out of the race for any cause is a really good flyer. He is coping with a foot harm in the intervening time, although, so do not get your hopes up too rapidly.
And from right here, we’re already operating out of rookies we might count on to play sufficient to make a severe run at this. Derik Queen (+15000) could be very attention-grabbing in a world wherein Zion Williamson have been coping with a nagging harm or doubtlessly traded… however Williamson remains to be in New Orleans, and Queen is simply too duplicative to place up the requisite numbers. Jeremiah Fears is just too low on the New Orleans offensive pecking order. Khaman Maluach will break up minutes with a number of different Phoenix bigs. Cedric Coward will in all probability play sufficient, but when Jaylen Wells could not beat Fortress in a 3-and-D position for Memphis final season, it is onerous to think about Coward beating the extra imposing Flagg.
Kasparas Jakučionis (+6000) is the final notable identify price a glance. There are going to be ball-handling alternatives early in Miami with Tyler Herro injured, and even when he comes again, that is nonetheless a reasonably restricted offensive roster. If he reveals he can carry a significant load early on, Erik Spoelstra will lean on him. If nothing else, it would not harm the Warmth to pump up the commerce worth of one in all their children, so if he can play, the possibilities might be there.
Nonetheless, Flagg is the apparent favourite right here. When you’re betting on this award, the play is likely to be just like Paolo Banchero’s race through the 2022-23 season. For a wide range of causes, he was the apparent favourite. Those that wager him early clearly profited. Nonetheless, shock contenders emerged because the season progressed. It was Bennedict Mathurin early on and Jalen Williams later. When you’re vigilant, you may catch candidates earlier than the books do. Keep in mind, there aren’t going to be that a lot of them. Are you able to consider many Rookie of the Yr races with 4 or 5 true candidates? It does not actually occur. So if you wish to wager Flagg, do it. He is in all probability going to win. Simply keep alert. Somebody goes to problem him, and if you wish to have the hedge, your greatest wager might be to get a way of who will probably be and seize that participant at +500 a month into the season fairly than throwing a bunch of darts on the board now.
