There may be yet one more world for No. 1 Michigan and coach Jim Harbaugh to overcome. The Wolverines have overcome Ohio State and ended their Large Ten title drought within the course of. This season, not solely did they make the College Football Playoff, however they beat No. 4 Alabama to win their first playoff recreation.
Now, No. 2 Washington stands between the Wolverines and this system’s first nationwide title since 1997. Michigan is favored to win the sport, however the Huskies current a problem the likes of which Michigan hasn’t seen this yr. They arrive to Houston, Texas, with one of many prime quarterbacks within the recreation (Michael Penix Jr.) and a trio of huge receivers who would make NFL normal managers blush.
Ending the job is not going to be simple, and these are the 5 keys to Michigan hoisting the trophy Monday evening.
CFP Nationwide Championship: Michigan vs. Washington skilled picks | Tom Fornelli’s greatest bets
1. Management the tempo with the run recreation
The largest mismatch on this recreation is between Michigan’s floor recreation and the Washington run protection. In brief, Michigan’s power performs to Washington’s best defensive weak point. The Wolverines offense leans closely on the bottom recreation, although it is not explosive; it is extra a battle of attrition than something. The Wolverines get behind a superb offensive line and ship Blake Corum and firm crashing into it like so many waves towards a rocky shoreline.
Whereas there aren’t the identical large runs we noticed final season (the knee damage Corum suffered late final season has impacted him closely on this division), the Wolverines keep on schedule. Their adverse play fee of 17.49% within the run recreation ranks No. 8 nationally. In Washington, they are going to face a rush protection that ranks No. 130 nationally in success fee towards the run and adverse play fee towards the run.
Michigan will doubtless select to get three or 4 yards at a time to arrange third and manageable conditions that might additionally turn into fourth downs for which the Wolverines select to remain on the sector. Michigan does not discover itself in lots of fourth-down conditions however is aggressive once they happen. This can be a technique to management the tempo of the sport and restrict total possessions. In any case, one of the best ways to decelerate a potent offense like Washington’s has at all times been to maintain it off the sector.
2. Strain Michael Penix
Penix is almost inconceivable to sack. His potential to sense strain within the pocket, keep away from it, after which rapidly fireplace off a move is unparalleled within the faculty recreation this season. Penix has a sack fee of solely 2.1% (No. 2 nationally) regardless of a strain allowed fee of 25.9% (No. 16). If you happen to return and watch the Sugar Bowl, you will see quite a few performs when Texas pressured Penix via the inside, however Penix averted it and made performs.
Watch the Rose Bowl, and you will see Michigan’s protection eat Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe alive with strain. Penix is much more tough to sack than Milroe, although sack avoidance has by no means been one in all Milroe’s strengths. However simply because it’s going to be tougher doesn’t suggest it isn’t of the utmost significance.
Groups did not blitz Washington a lot this yr — a mix of Penix and the phobia of leaving Washington’s receivers in man protection)– and Michigan does not blitz actually because it does not should. Michigan’s strain fee of 41.4% ranks No. 6 nationally, and its sack fee of 9.5% ranks No. 7. There is not a QB on Earth who enjoys being pressured whereas making an attempt to throw.
3. Restrict explosive performs
That is considerably related to the final key. Strain will power Washington to get the ball out faster and cut back the possibility of huge performs, however with or with out strain Michigan’s secondary should hold performs in entrance of it as greatest it could possibly. The Washington offense ranks No. 8 with an explosive play fee of 16.4%, together with an explosive move fee of 21.4% (No. 10). Penix is an aggressive quarterback who is not afraid to take pictures downfield and has the arm to make almost each throw required.
The Michigan protection ranked third with an explosive move fee allowed of 9.59%, however the Wolverines did not face an offense like Washington’s this yr. Nevertheless, that does not imply it is not ready. The Michigan protection of at present is the results of a years-long course of of making a unit that might cease the Ohio State offenses that lengthy dominated the Large Ten. This season’s Ohio State offense wasn’t the identical, however the Washington offense the Wolverines will see Monday is not dissimilar to the Ohio State offenses they stopped with quarterback C.J. Stroud on the helm.
4. Take pictures within the passing recreation
I informed you Washington’s passing offense ranks No. 10 nationally with an explosive play fee of 21.4%. Would you be shocked to study that Michigan ranks even greater? It does. Michigan’s 21.9% explosive move fee ranks No. 6, however the Wolverines do not take almost as many deep pictures as Washington does. However they take them, and so they’ll want to take action on this recreation.
Simply because Michigan can run the ball doesn’t suggest it ought to turn into predictable, and with Washington doubtless keying on stopping the run, the chance to take the highest off the Huskies protection can be there. Whether or not it makes use of a trick play or play motion, Michigan must current a vertical risk to maintain Washington’s protection trustworthy.
5. Keep in mind learn how to play particular groups
It is wild to look again on the particular groups errors Michigan made within the Rose Bowl towards Alabama and the way simply any one in all them may’ve led to a loss. There have been two muffed punts, a botched additional level, a missed subject purpose and a nasty efficiency from punter Tommy Doman.
What makes it all of the extra stunning is that whereas Michigan did not have an elite particular groups unit throughout the common season, it was above common. Michigan entered the Rose Bowl ranked No. 50 nationally in particular groups EPA at 11.50. It fell to No. 80 and a -2.73 following a -14.23 EPA efficiency towards Alabama. That is insane! It is also motive to consider that what we noticed within the Rose Bowl is not going to repeat itself within the title recreation, and it is protected to imagine Michigan took further steps this week to make sure they will not.
