Monday night’s College Football Playoff National Championship Game between No. 1 Indiana and No. 10 Miami shapes up as a grueling, physical battle between two teams that have embraced that identity all season. The unbeaten Hoosiers are trying to become college football’s first 16-0 national champion, but they must get past a resurgent Hurricanes team playing on its home field.
Miami’s path has been anything but easy. The Hurricanes knocked off No. 7 Texas A&M on the road, eliminated No. 2 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl and outlasted No. 6 Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl to reach the title game. Powered by a massive offensive line, Miami has created running lanes for Mark Fletcher Jr. while quarterback Carson Beck distributes the ball to elite playmakers such as Malachi Toney, giving the Hurricanes a balanced, efficient attack.
First-year defensive coordinator Corey Heatherman has elevated Miami’s defense into one of the nation’s best, bringing to life fourth-year coach Mario Cristobal’s vision of a big, punishing roster. Still, the question remains whether that physicality is enough to test Indiana.
The Hoosiers have overwhelmed everyone in their path, blasting No. 9 Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl and dismantling No. 5 Oregon 56-22 in the Peach Bowl. With Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza at the controls and no obvious weaknesses on the roster, Indiana enters as a more-than-touchdown favorite.
Second-year coach Curt Cignetti has orchestrated one of the most remarkable turnarounds in college football history, putting Indiana on the brink of its first national championship.
Keys to victory in CFP National Championship: How Indiana can win | How Miami can win
Where to watch Miami vs. Indiana
Date: Monday, Jan. 19 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, Fla.
TV: ESPN | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
Miami vs. Indiana picks for CFP National Championship
Tom Fornelli: At what point does everybody start listening to what Indiana’s been telling them all season? It has blown out Alabama and Oregon in consecutive playoff games and comes into the championship in much better shape than the Miami Hurricanes do health-wise. I don’t expect we see a blowout along the lines of what the Rose and Peach Bowls provided, but I do expect the outcome will be clear before the fourth quarter starts. Pick: Indiana – 8.5 | Indiana 31, Miami 13
Chip Patterson: I do think that Miami has the defense to be able to limit what Fernando Mendoza can do pushing the ball deep down the field and also a better rushing attack than Ohio State, which should help no bungling red zone opportunities like the Buckeyes did in the Big Ten title game. The Hoosiers’ efficiency and effectiveness should keep them in control most of the game, but the playmaking potential should give Miami enough splash plays to keep it interesting. As long as Miami executes on its scoring chances, it will have a chance to win, but I’ve got Indiana (best TD% red zone defense in the country) winning those key plays to emerge as 16-0 national champions. Pick: Indiana -8.5 | Indiana 30, Miami 20
Brandon Marcello: Miami is still the most physical, violent team remaining in the playoff. Indiana has been unbreakable all season, even in a pair of close calls against Penn State and Iowa, but this Hurricanes team is relentless along the offensive and defensive lines. The problem for Miami is that it still doesn’t quite trust quarterback Carson Beck to throw deep, leading to more underneath throws. Even against Ole Miss, drives stalled in the second half when the Hurricanes pulled away from running the ball with Mark Fletcher Jr. Indiana’s offense gets a lot of attention with Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza, but it’s the defense that has won games. I trust both quarterbacks in 2-minute situations, but Mendoza protects the ball and Beck is a bit more unpredictable. This will be a slugfest at times, but Indiana will pull away to make this the eighth straight title game with the champion winning by double digits. Pick: Indiana -8.5 | Indiana 31, Miami 21
John Talty: Indiana has been the best team all season long. They are elite offensively and defensively. They have America’s best coaching staff. They have my favorite curmudgeon in the sport. I’ve been riding with the Hoosiers since the spring, and I’m not stopping now. What once felt unbelievable will become reality: Indiana as national champions. Pick: Indiana -8.5 | Indiana 34, Miami 20
Shehan Jeyarajah: Indiana has been a perfect football team in 2025, and it will ultimately end with an elusive first national championship. It won’t come easy. Miami’s top-rated defensive line will force mistakes, including at least one turnover from Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza. However, Mendoza’s legend will be cemented with a fourth-quarter touchdown to ice the game and deliver the Hoosiers an unlikely title. Pick: Indiana – 8.5 | Indiana 27, Miami 17
David Cobb: Miami’s offensive line is sturdy enough to prevent Indiana’s defensive front from completely taking over, a necessity if the Hurricanes hope to stay within striking distance. On the other side, Miami has enough punch up front — led by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akeem Mesidor — to make the Hoosiers uncomfortable at times. Ultimately, Indiana looks like a team of destiny and should win outright. But Miami is capable of turning this into a fight. Pick: Miami +8.5 | Indiana 27, Miami 20
Richard Johnson: Indiana will get the job done largely on the strength of their defense. With all the post-snap movement and zone drops that Indiana incorporates to their defense, my expectation is that eventually Carson Beck will get fooled and give the Hoosiers a couple interceptions. It’s all they’ll need to outlast Miami and tip the scales in their favor with the extra possessions. It’s also the path that could see the game get truly out of hand. Pick: Indiana -8.5 | Indiana 34, Miami 17
Chris Hummer: Miami is playing a national championship game at home. What a story. What an opportunity. What a moment. The Hurricanes can’t lose it, right? Well … here comes Indiana. It feels ridiculous to type that with a 15-0 Indiana. It’s Indiana! History tells us this isn’t possible, but Curt Cignetti has created a monster in Bloomington. They’re the most well-coached, most disciplined and best team in the country. Plus, they have a Heisman Trophy-winning QB and, if you talk to coaches around the sport, have a roster that athletically matches up with anyone. As crazy as it feels to write, I’m picking Indiana to win a national championship. How could I not? Maybe Miami finds a bit more magic at home. But this has been the season of Indiana. As long as Indiana’s o-line can hold up on the edges, it wins this game. Pick: Miami +8.5 | Indiana 24, Miami 21
Who will win and cover in Indiana vs. Miami? SportsLine’s computer model just simulated the College Football Playoff National Championship Game 10,000 times and projects that one side will cover well over 50% of the time. Visit SportsLine to find out who it is.
