The 2026 FIFA World Cup is officially six months away, and the tournament is a shared spotlight between three Concacaf hosts. The United States, Canada, and Mexico are all one step closer to learning who their World Cup group opponents will be in their respective groups. The World Cup draw will take place on Friday with the Stars and Stripes in Group D, Canada in Group B, and Mexico in Group A.
With the biggest global tournament rapidly approaching, all eyes are on the host nations and who they’ll face. The way the draw works is that the teams are divided into pots. You can check out the full pot-by-pot breakdown here.
We’ve already sorted who would be the best and worst case scenario for the USMNT, but what about El Tri? Who could they play, and is there truly a best scenario given their recent form? Let’s get into it:
Draw restrictions
No group will have more than one team from the same federation in it, except UEFA, which is required to have two groups of two UEFA teams in it, due to the fact that 16 teams will be participating in the tournament. Then there’s the challenge of the intercontinental playoffs, which will not be held until after the draw. For the playoff tournament teams, the confederation restrictions will be applied to all teams involved in the playoff, which would keep the host nations from drawing a team involved in the FIFA playoff tournament due to Jamaica and Suriname being involved as Concacaf teams.
Mexico’s worst-case draw
Mexico’s fall from Concacaf grace fizzled as fast as a summer fling, which is the last time they were in any decent form. Despite big gains in early 2025, including a Nations League title win, they hoisted the 2025 Gold Cup in July and have failed to record any wins since.
They’ve got six months to sort themselves out, but it’s tough to look at current form and the World Cup pots and not think nearly any scenario could be a worst-case situation. In an effort not to hit every single panic button in sight, here are two draw scenarios that could be disastrous for Mexico.
Scenario A:
- Mexico
- Norway (UEFA)
- Colombia (CONMEBOL)
- Italy (UEFA playoff winner)
With the newly expanded field of 48 teams, it could be possible that Group A gets two UEFA teams, and that would be a disaster for Mexico if it’s Norway and Italy, or even Sweden or Poland.
It’s been great seeing the rising profile of Caesar Montes on Mexico’s backline, but Erling Haaland would tower over him and anyone else back there. The hope is that the starting centerbacks come out unscathed with no double yellows (or even straight red cards), so that it doesn’t force the staff into any early adjustments.
Colombia recently wrecked Mexico 4-0 in October, and if Italy finally punches their ticket back into the World Cup after missing out on the previous two editions, they’ll be back with a vengeance. That’s always a dangerous type of opponent to face when you’re in questionable form.
Scenario B:
- Mexico
- Scotland (UEFA)
- Morocco (CAF)
- Sweden (UEFA playoff winner)
Because why not be the host that gets not one but two European competitors? Feels like it’ll be at least one of the hosts that gets that honor and wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Mexico.
Scotland are riding high on the momentum of earning a place in the World Cup, and they could be a tricky side to handle. Same with Sweden, and Mexico are no strangers to mediocre performances against them as we saw during 2018 in Russia. Morocco will also have pressure on them, as 2022 semifinalists, and favorites as current AFCON hosts.
Mexico’s best-case draw
If the group stage is about setting yourself up for success in the knockout rounds, then Mexico have work to do. They failed to exit the group stage for the first time in decades during Qatar 2022, and now they’ll have some pressure as hosts to return to the knockout rounds.
A “quinto partido” (fifth game) has been a long-term goal, but now there is a round of 32 ahead of the round of 16, and the home side should strive for more. If they get a favorable group, then why not hope for the best?
- Mexico
- Ivory Coast (CAF)
- Iran (AFC)
- New Zealand (OFC)
If we’re simply going by rankings among other teams across the pots, this could be one of the better scenarios. If it comes down to higher-ranked “middle” teams to eventually land one of the lowest-ranked teams in New Zealand, then maybe it adds even more pressure on the hosts. If they don’t come out as winners of a group like this, it would be considered even worse than Qatar 2022.
