LONDON — As the Premier League approaches the turn, here was a win to typify Manchester City’s title challenge so far. The scoreline alone would be enough to convince you that Pep Guardiola’s side are motoring once more, hitting their best form when it matters most in customary fashion. For the sixth time in their last seven Premier League games, City ran in three goals. One of the hardest away assignments England might offer this season has been successfully navigated.
The headline story of this game is encouraging in the extreme. And that is perhaps the most favorable way to assess City. For once, Guardiola has built a team that sneers at nuance, one that demands they are assessed in cliched fashion. They’ve got the best striker in the league, mate. They just win, and that’s what matters most. They know what’s required at this stage of the season. They will figure it out, they always do.
Here’s the thing, though. There might well be plenty of figuring out to do. It is hard to know for sure. After all, the table will attest that Crystal Palace are one of the toughest opponents the Premier League has to offer. You could tell. Until Phil Foden broke their resolve with 20 minutes to play, Oliver Glasner’s FA Cup winners had by far the better of the chances. Better finishing by Yeremy Pino before Erling Haaland’s opener and this might have been a rerun of that famous afternoon in Wembley.
“There are still many things we have to improve,” acknowledged Guardiola. “The Real Madrid win gave me a lot of signals that we are not ready, not in terms of mentality but how we approach certain games … To make 3-0 here is a good statement for us.”
The immediate statement is as impressive as it gets. It’s when you interrogate it a bit further that the questions come. City ended this game with a Haaland penalty padding out the goals and shots statistics. Even so, they gave up 16 shots to the seven they took on Dean Henderson’s goal. Include the penalty in the expected goals (xG) calculations, and you still end up with their chances as the inferior ones, 2.08 to 1.18. Scrub that third goal out of the equation, and in attacking terms, that is a yikes performance. So is the 33 penalty box touches they allowed to the 12 they registered. And yes, the only statistic that matters is the one at the top of the scoresheet. There are those cliches again, utterly disinterested in which of those numbers is more predictive of future results, in the fact that City are allowing nearly 70% more non-penalty xG per game than Arsenal, that there is a sizeable wedge in xG difference between the two.
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At least future points will not have to be gained against a side like Glasner’s. A great deal of allowance has to be allowed for the excellence of Palace in the first 70 minutes. In all bar one moment, their defense dealt powerfully with Haaland, using their surfeit of center backs to ensure he could rarely receive the ball without two red and blue shirts crashing into him. This is a team that frequently looks able to transition with their eyes closed. Their sprayed passes from deep make the pitch as wide as possible, opening lines that Adam Wharton could easily slide the ball through.
Palace understood how best to exploit Manchester City’s possession, hitting swift, high balls into the space behind their backline, drawing fruit time and time again. Here again is where the challenge of really assessing Guardiola’s team comes in. Did those difficulties stem from the fact there is maybe only one striker — the one at the other end of the pitch — more adept than Jean-Philippe Mateta at causing chaos chasing balls over the top? Would players other than Wharton be able to land those passes in just the right spot? City have always gambled with the space behind their backline and few opponents are as well and Palace are particularly well-placed to exploit that.
Maybe the City of old were better placed to mitigate against those vulnerabilities. Certainly, their best midfields wouldn’t have allowed Daichi Kamada to breeze through them as easily as he did at Selhurst Park. That is perhaps the most compelling counter to the argument that this team will get better in the months ahead. If prime Rodri is walking back through that door, it probably isn’t this season.
What can happen is that the younger players who aren’t used to carrying the burden of a title charge grow into it, in much the same way as their predecessors did. Take Foden, who struggled to impact the game before a low drive of customary excellence that killed the game. Guardiola sees room for him to grow. In recent weeks, he has been at pains to point out the relative youth of this title contender, the churn off the field that goes some way to explaining why this team has gravitated towards a form of Haaland heliocentrism. His young stars are still learning and still improving.
“Phil today, I think differently [to others],” Guardiola said. “He was not at his best. He lost a lot of balls. He was so rushed in decisions, so anxious. He has to play, to keep the ball, to be associated with the other [players] and in the right moment make this explosion that only he has. Before then, he has to be more calm.”
And despite the fact that Foden and so many others aren’t what his manager believes they might be, City are still there. Yes, it is that cliche that they’re going to improve again, but this time with at least something substantial to back it up. The reason that rivals will fear City just going click is that it has before in seemingly trying positions, like when Guardiola dreamed up a defense of four center backs and locked down his side’s status as Europe’s finest.
“We’ve been playing without the best player in the world [Rodri] for a year and a half,” said Guardiola. “Despite that, we are there. We are close. This is what I like.
“I have the feeling that we are getting better. This is what we want to feel. Today was 3-0 but Sunderland, you know, the season they’re doing, we won 3-0 [too]. We were good against Sunderland for 95 minutes. I cannot expect to come here and not [allow] chances, not lose the ball in transition. It’s the FA Cup winners. It’s a top four, top five team, an exceptional team. I cannot expect [the Sunderland game] from them.
“But how we approach, how aggressive we were in the high pressing, how good we were defending in the box, how good we were in many, many things we’ve done, that makes me so happy.”
Perhaps that is what matters most of all. The data can see signs of worry for City, at least in comparison to the aggregate iteration of league leaders Arsenal. Guardiola can see cause for optimism. Who are you backing?
