Manchester City are hoping to gain ground on English Premier League leaders Arsenal when they visit Elland Road to take on Leeds on Saturday. Man City (17-5-5) are five points behind the Gunners in the Premier League table with a game in hand and come in on a five-game win streak in all competitions. Leeds (7-10-10) are in 15th place but are 1-3-0 in their past four matches. City have won the past five meetings between the teams by a combined score of 19-4.
Kickoff from Elland Road in Leeds is set for 12:30 p.m. ET. Manchester City are -165 favorites on the money line in the latest Leeds vs. Manchester City odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the hosts are +400 underdogs. A draw comes in at +350 and the total is set at 2.5 (Over -165, Under +130). Check out the latest SportsLine Projection Model picks for Leeds vs. Manchester City, and make sure you see what expert Martin Green is betting for the contest.
After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Last year, Green was profitable in multiple areas on his soccer betting picks, including Euro qualifying (+6.30 units), EFL Cup (+4.47), FA Cup (+3.07) and Champions League (+3.05), among others. Anyone who follows him could be way up.
Here are Green’s best bets and analysis for Leeds vs. Manchester City on Saturday, Feb. 28.
Leeds vs. Manchester City best bets
- Both Teams to Score (-140, 1 unit)
- Erling Haaland to Score (-120, 0.5 units)
Leeds will try to extend their unbeaten streak to five games when they host title-chasing Man City at Elland Road on Saturday.
Daniel Farke’s men are up to 15th in the Premier League table after battling to an impressive 1-1 draw with Aston Villa last weekend. They’ve picked up three wins, four draws and just one defeat in their last eight matches in all competitions.
Leeds lost 4-0 to Arsenal on Jan. 31 but are unbeaten in February, so the players should be full of confidence right now. However, they face a stern test of their mettle against Pep Guardiola’s rejuvenated Man City team.
Semenyo signing revitalizes Man City’s attack
Man City are back in the Premier League title race after winning their last three games. They beat Liverpool 2-1 at Anfield, cruised to a 3-0 victory over Fulham, then beat Newcastle 2-1 at home last weekend.
They’re now just five points behind league leaders Arsenal, but they have a game in hand. The title race could go down to the wire, so this is a must-win game for Man City. The Citizens have won five games in a row in all competitions. They’re unbeaten since losing to Man United in mid-January, so they’re building momentum at the perfect time in the season.
City’s season was faltering, but the club made two shrewd signings in the January transfer window. Antoine Semenyo, the standout attacking player in the Premier League this season, joined from Bournemouth. City then bolstered their defense by snapping up Crystal Palace captain Marc Guehi.
The results have been immediate. They now look stronger at the back and more dangerous in attack, so they look well-placed to win another Premier League title this season. However, their away form has been their Achilles’ heel. Man City have only won six of their 13 away games this season, with 22 goals scored and 16 conceded.
They beat Liverpool at Anfield in their last away match, but they were winless in their previous three away games — a 2-2 draw with Spurs, a 2-0 defeat to Man United, and a 0-0 draw with Sunderland. City also lost 3-1 on the road against Bodø/Glimt in the Champions League, so they don’t travel well. They’ll need big performances from key players like Erling Haaland, Bernardo Silva, and Gianluigi Donnarumma if they’re to beat Leeds at Elland Road.
Leeds are strong at home
Elland Road has been a fortress for Leeds this season. They’ve picked up 1.69 points per game at home (six wins, four draws, three defeats).
By contrast, Leeds have only earned 0.64 points per game on the road (one win, six draws, seven defeats). It shows just how crucial the Elland Road crowd is for this team. The home fans create a raucous, intimidating atmosphere, which the Leeds players feed on in big games. Farke’s men have taken four wins, two draws, and just two defeats from their last eight home games.
That’s why they’re now six points clear of the relegation zone. They look capable of avoiding relegation, but they need to keep picking up points at Elland Road.
Leeds only have six home matches remaining this season, so this will be another crucial game for the team. Farke is only missing one player, forward Noah Okafor, so he will field a strong starting XI for this game.
The likes of Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Brendan Aaronson could cause problems for a Man City team that has only kept four clean sheets on the road this season. However, it’s hard to see Leeds keeping Haaland, Semenyo, Rayan Cherki, Tijani Reijnders, Nico O’Reilly, Omar Marmoush, and Phil Foden at bay for 90 minutes.
It finished 3-2 to Man City when these teams met in Manchester earlier this season, and both teams to score should pay off again at Elland Road this weekend.
Haaland has scored three goals in his last two games. He’s up to 42 goals in 43 matches for club and country this season, so he looks well-priced to find the back of the net on Saturday.
