A double-digit longshot won the Run for the Roses every year from 2021-24, but that trend stopped in 2025 when Sovereignty won at 5-1. Still, he was not the favorite in that race, and the morning-line betting favorite has only won the first jewel of the Triple Crown 18 times in the race’s existence. That’ll be the challenge for Renegade at the 2026 Kentucky Derby as he’s going off at 4-1 ahead of Saturday’s 6:57 p.m. ET post time at Churchill Downs.
His half-brother Commandment and Further Ado are close behind at 6-1, with a half-dozen total Kentucky Derby 2026 horses at 15-1 or lower on the odds board. How should you formulate your 2026 Kentucky Derby betting strategy? Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
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A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years. He also predicted the top three 2025 Kentucky Derby finishers in the correct order and hit a $1,682 supefecta, and then went on to nail the exacta in last year’s Preakness. Anyone who has followed him on horse racing betting sites could be way up.
Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby approaching and horse racing futures odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis
One of Demling’s surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He’s completely fading Renegade, the morning-line favorite at 4-1. In fact, Demling says Renegade will barely finish inside the top 10 on Saturday. Renegade comes to Churchill Downs off wins at the Arkansas Derby and the Sam F. Davis Stakes. He drew the challenging inside rail position, however, and 1986 was the last time a horse won the Kentucky Derby breaking from Post No. 1. The favorite also hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby since 2018, so Demling sees too much working against Renegade this year. See who to back at SportsLine.
Demling also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby prediction for Commandment, who is the half-brother of Renegade and is listed at 6-1 in the Kentucky Derby odds. Commandment comes to Churchill Downs on a four-race winning streak, including winning back-to-back graded-stakes races: the Florida Derby and the Fountain of Youth Stakes. The Florida Derby has produced more Kentucky Derby winners than any other prep race, but it’s been nearly a decade since the most recent one, so that’s a trend to keep in mind when betting on Commandment. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the latest FanDuel Racing promo, which lets users bet $5 and get $25 in bonuses:
Demling has also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby picks for Further Ado (6-1). Further Ado was a longshot in the Kentucky Derby futures throughout the early spring, but he’s surged up the board after three wins in his last four races, including a victory at the Blue Grass Stakes on April 4. If there’s a question about Further Ado, it might involve his level of competition. His win at the Blue Grass Stakes wasn’t against a loaded field. “Is he really improving that much?” Demling said to SportsLine. “Hard to tell, so I can’t throw him out.” See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby bets at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is also high on a longshot who “demolished the field” in his last start. Anyone who backs this colt could hit it big. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 12 Derby-Oaks doubles.
