Of the 57 nations singled out for added “reciprocal” tariffs in U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” govt order on April 2, Kazakhstan is the one Central Asian state to make the list.
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan shall be topic to baseline 10 p.c tariffs, which went into impact over the weekend, however Kazakhstan has been focused with a 27 percent tariff set to enter impact on April 9.
First, a short observe on phrases and shifting goalposts: Whereas the administration refers to those tariffs as “reciprocal,” analysts rapidly pointed out that isn’t accurate. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at markets perception agency RSM, instructed CNN: “It appeared to me as if it was an advert hoc effort of punishing nations as a result of they’d giant commerce balances with the US.”
After being questioned by journalists about how the figures had been decided, the administration published a formula – full with Greek letters – and dickered on-line about what it meant.
“The system for the tariffs… doesn’t make financial sense,” Kevin Corinth and Stan Veuger wrote in an analysis for the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a conservative suppose tank. “The commerce deficit with a given nation is just not decided solely by tariffs and non-tariff commerce limitations, but additionally by worldwide capital flows, provide chains, comparative benefit, geography, and so forth.”
In response to the U.S. Trade Representative, whole items commerce with Kazakhstan amounted to $3.4 billion in 2024 – $1.1 billion in U.S. exports to Kazakhstan and $2.3 billion in U.S. imports from Kazakhstan, for a commerce deficit of $1.3 billion.
Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Commerce and Integration stated in an April 3 statement that commerce turnover in 2024 amounted to $4.2 billion – with $2.2 billion in imports from the U.S. and almost $2 billion in exports from Kazakhstan to the U.S.
These figures not solely don’t match up, however they recommend conflicting commerce deficits. Each the U.S. and Kazakhstan can’t concurrently be in a commerce deficit with the opposite.
The Kazakh Commerce Ministry’s assertion didn’t observe this discrepancy, however did level out that a lot of the classes of products Kazakhstan exports to the U.S. are included within the checklist of exemptions. “The idea of Kazakhstan’s exports to the US are crude oil, uranium, silver, ferroalloys and others,” the assertion famous.
“The launched tariff measures will have an effect on solely 4.8 p.c of the entire quantity of Kazakhstan’s exports to the US,” the assertion stated, pointing to phosphorus, wheat gluten, and ammonium nitrate, amongst different items.
“The federal government is initiating consultations with the American facet to debate the opportunity of not making use of further duties to Kazakhstan.”
Some Kazakh economists commenting online have downplayed the potential for the tariffs to hurt Kazakhstan writ giant. On Telegram, Rasul Rysmambetov wrote, “Kazakhstan has nothing to fret about: world conflicts should not our fireplace. Direct results is not going to hit us.”
“World conflicts are an opportunity to be a impartial middleman, broaden exports, strengthen commerce ties with Asia, the EU and different nations,” he added.
(Rysmambetov cited totally different figures than both authorities supply famous above: $2 billion in Kazakh exports to the U.S. and $1 billion in imports).
Economist Eldar Shamsutdinov instructed Tengrinews.kz, “America is just not a key buying and selling companion for Kazakhstan.”
Commerce (whichever figures you cite) between the U.S. and Kazakhstan is restricted and closely skewed towards power, which has been exempt from the brand new tariffs. Moreover, areas for focused progress on each the a part of the U.S. and Kazakhstan – important minerals – are additionally exempt. That means a restricted influence in apply, however the messaging might depart a extra lasting mark.
