Kazakhstan goals to additional enhance the amount of oil it exports by means of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, underscoring Astana’s continued efforts to diversify its routes amid the Central Asian area’s constrained geography.
Following a gathering in Astana this week with Azerbaijani Overseas Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, Kazakh Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu noted that the 2 sides had been implementing prior agreements to provide Kazakh power assets to international markets through Azerbaijan.
“Final yr, 1.4 million tons of oil had been exported through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Sooner or later, it’s deliberate to extend the amount of transit of Kazakhstani oil to 2.2 million tons per yr,” he stated.
In November 2022, Kazakhstan’s state-owned oil and gasoline firm, KazMunayGas (KMG), signed a five-year settlement with Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil and gasoline firm, SOCAR, by which 1.5 million tons of Kazakh oil could be transferred through the BTC pipeline from Azerbaijan to Georgia and on to Turkiye.
On the time, then-Kazakh Vitality Minister Bolat Akchulakov indicated the nation’s goals to extend its oil exports through different routes, with the Astana Times reporting that Kazakhstan deliberate “to extend oil provides by means of Azerbaijan to 6-6.5 million tons.”
The settlement got here as Kazakhstan seemed to operationalize further routes within the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Writing in October 2022, Paolo Sorbello famous that oil producers in Kazakhstan acknowledged the dangers of the battle on pipelines operating by means of Russia in addition to the alternatives introduced by European prospects in search of different suppliers.
By April 2023, Kazakh oil was being shipped from Ceyhan, in Turkiye, throughout the Black Sea to the Petromidia refinery close to the Romanian port of Constanta (the port of Midia, one among Constanta’s satellite tv for pc ports, is used to provide the refinery). Petromidia is owned by KMG International, which acquired a 75 p.c stake within the unique working firm, Rompetrol, in 2007 and the ultimate 25 p.c in 2009. Petromidia is Romania’s only Black Coastline refinery.
Bloomberg reported in March 2023 on Kazakh struggles to export enough crude oil through pipelines to satisfy European calls for, given a drop in manufacturing in February 2023 amid unplanned upkeep work on the Tengiz discipline. Manufacturing volumes ebb and stream: in October 2024 upkeep work introduced manufacturing ranges down on the Kashagan discipline; in February 2025, nevertheless, Kazakhstan’s oil output hit a file excessive, specifically on the again of surging output at Tengiz.
There have additionally been extra distinctive points, such because the February 17 Ukrainian drone assault on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). The CPC carries oil from Kazakhstan to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk; it handles an estimated 80 p.c of Kazakhstan’s exports. In keeping with RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service, Azattyq, in 2024, the CPC transported 63 million tons of oil – 53 million tons from Kazakhstan – most of which went on to Europe and the USA.
An growth of volumes routed by means of the BTC pipeline received’t come anyplace near lessening Kazakhstan’s dependence on the CPC, however serves to underscore the continued necessity of increasing Astana’s choices wherever attainable. The numerous quantity Kazakhstan would want to reroute to get rid of its dependence on Russian territory arguably requires a pipeline across the Caspian Sea.
In an August 2024 article, Luke Coffey, a senior fellow on the Hudson Institute, argued {that a} “pipeline is the one economically viable strategy to transfer pure gasoline throughout the Caspian Sea.”
A full decade in the past, in 2016, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan had been discussing a trans-Caspian mission, constructing on a decade of prior dialogue. Whereas the pipeline stays a dream, the motivations for such a mission proceed to accrue.
