James Harden is a former MVP. He’s one thing near a present-day All-Star. His future, in the mean time, cannot be so simply condensed right into a single sentence. Let’s evaluation the sequence of occasions that led us to “Daryl Morey is a liar” to attempt to determine the place he is going.
- Feb. 2022: Harden forces a commerce to the Philadelphia 76ers in alternate for a bundle constructed round equally disgruntled star Ben Simmons. It’s the second commerce he has pressured in 13 months.
- Might 2022: Philadelphia loses its second-round sequence to the Miami Warmth. Harden scores 11 factors within the series-ending loss, his lowest level whole in a playoff recreation that didn’t contain a documented damage since 10-point debacle in Recreation 6 of a 2017 season-ending loss to the San Antonio Spurs.
- July 2022: Harden re-signs with the 76ers on a two-year, $68.6 million deal. Harden declined his $47.3 million participant choice to develop into a free agent and signal this contract, and within the course of, allowed the 76ers the flexibleness to signal P.J. Tucker and Danuel Home Jr. Harden claimed at the time that he “advised Daryl to enhance the roster, signal who we wanted to signal and provides me no matter is left over.” Notably, nonetheless, no NBA team went into free company with enough cap space to match the $33.6 million wage the 76ers gave Harden for the 2022-23 season, and all 5 groups that operated under the cap through the 2022 offseason had been coming off of lottery seasons. Due to this fact, it’s inconceivable to know if any suggestion that Harden truly left cash on the desk past his one-year possibility is really correct, and even when he was prepared to, he notably had no path to a market-value wage on a contender with out Philadelphia’s cooperation.
- Dec. 2022: ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski studies that Harden is “significantly contemplating a return to the Houston Rockets” as a free agent within the 2023 offseason. The 76ers are 19-12 at that second and seem primed to compete within the Jap Convention.
- Might 2023: Philadelphia blows a 3-2 result in the Boston Celtics within the second spherical. Harden shoots 7-of-27 from the ground in Video games 6 and seven.
- June 2023: Harden, with out a suitable long-term contract supply from the 76ers and with the data that Houston plans to pursue Raptors guard Fred VanVleet as an alternative of him, picks up his $35.6 million possibility for the 2023-24 season anticipating to be traded quickly afterward, ideally to the Los Angeles Clippers.
- August 2023: Harden calls Morey a liar after no commerce materializes.
There are two methods of taking a look at this sequence of occasions, and the reality most likely lies someplace between them.
Harden’s perspective is probably going that he did the 76ers a favor by bailing them out of the Simmons debacle, did them one other one by leaving cash on the desk so they may signal Tucker and Home, and now Morey has not solely failed to present him the type of long-term contract he anticipated for his sacrifice, however will not even ship him to a brand new staff that is likely to be extra open to paying him.
Philadelphia, then again, has already watched Harden power his approach off of two groups and sink their championship hopes in two separate collapses. They watched him flirt with the Rockets all season solely to search out in July that they weren’t , and at the moment are watching him strike out once more with a Clippers staff that might fortunately take him, however does not appear all that keen to present something as much as get him. From their perspective, Harden is neither well worth the type of long-term dedication he expects nor able to netting the type of commerce bundle it will take to justify giving up a participant who, a minimum of on this second, continues to be fairly good.
And that is what makes all of this so difficult. All through all of his current antics, Harden has gotten what he is wished largely as a result of he has been so good within the second that groups buying him had been prepared to miss each his current shortcomings and his doubtless long-term deterioration. A youthful Harden doubtless would have secured a commerce to the Clippers by now as a result of the Clippers could be so determined to land a participant of his caliber that they might supply the type of draft capital Morey doubtless must make a deal.
However for maybe the primary time since he was traded to Houston in 2012, Harden is being judged not by what he’s right now however by what he’ll doubtless be tomorrow. If Harden was able to securing a profitable, long-term contract in free company, he would have executed so. There have been even some mildly intriguing theoretical choices. The Lakers, who play in the identical metropolis because the Clippers and are run by Harden’s former agent, Rob Pelinka, had the flexibility to create greater than $30 million in cap house. No reporting recommended any curiosity. The Miami Warmth are presently embroiled in a months-long staring contest with the Portland Path Blazers over Damian Lillard. They may pivot to Harden at any time and doubtlessly make a deal. As far as we all know, they have not tried.
Harden needs to receives a commission, however there may be seemingly no staff prepared to pay to get him. That is a vital element for each side. Harden clearly is not part of Philadelphia’s long-term plans. If he was, they might have paid him, however in the meanwhile, Philadelphia appears to have pivoted to maximizing 2024 cap house. Meaning getting Harden off of their books subsequent summer season. Letting his contract expire naturally does that.
A commerce would solely have that impact if it meant absorbing no long-term salaries. In fact, even when Philadelphia was capable of commerce Harden with out taking again long-term cash, their cap house would not do a lot good if a irritating season led to Joel Embiid asking for his personal commerce earlier than they may use it. That is the place Harden’s short-term worth actually issues right here. Even when Harden is gone after subsequent season, Philadelphia wants him to be an All-Star-caliber participant subsequent season simply to maintain Embiid engaged till the actual roster overhaul is available in 2024.
This state of affairs leaves Harden out to dry. With Philadelphia’s cap house seemingly occupied by exterior free brokers, Harden wouldn’t solely be unable to re-sign with the staff that has his Fowl Rights, however that staff would doubtless should surrender his rights earlier than it may feasibly sign-and-trade him. In different phrases, Philadelphia’s present plan of maintaining Harden after which letting him stroll in 2024 would power him to signal with a staff with cap house or take an enormous pay lower.
Cap house these days is a uncommon commodity, particularly amongst profitable groups. Spotrac’s Keith Smith currently projects six groups to have a minimum of $20 million in cap house in the summertime of 2024, excluding Philadelphia: San Antonio, Oralndo, Utah, Charlotte, Detroit and Washington. A few of these groups may use guards. None of them are able to win instantly. They’d all doubtless choose to make use of their cap house on youthful free brokers. Even when any of them had been serious about Harden, it will doubtless be on a short-term deal. This makes it fairly clear why Harden goes to such lengths to power a commerce now. If he does not get traded, he most likely is not getting paid subsequent summer season.
The Clippers make much more sense via that prism. Sure, Los Angeles is his dwelling city, and sure, the Clippers may win a championship by pairing him up with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. That doubtless issues. What issues extra is that the Clippers, on paper, most likely likelier to increase Harden for main cash subsequent offseason than some other staff within the NBA for 3 causes:
- They’d don’t have any approach of changing him if he walked subsequent summer season. In contrast to Philadelphia, the Clippers don’t have any possible path to max cap house except George and Leonard stroll. That is potential, particularly because the Clippers have not prolonged both this offseason, however it’s unlikely as a result of…
- They’re opening a brand new enviornment for the 2024-25 season, they usually’ll doubtless wish to be aggressive after they accomplish that. Even when the Harden-Leonard-George trio does not produce a championship, it has the type of star energy groups need after they open a brand new constructing and must promote season tickets.
- They’ve the richest proprietor within the NBA. Steve Ballmer has made a couple of cost-cutting strikes in recent times, with this offseason’s waiving of Eric Gordon standing out. However he is among the few homeowners that may afford to not solely pay the Leonard-Harden-George trio, however the luxurious taxes that might accompany them.
Getting traded anyplace could be financially useful for Harden. If nothing else, he needs his Fowl Rights to belong to a staff that may truly wish to pay him subsequent summer season. However the Clippers verify extra packing containers than simply about everybody else for the explanations we coated, and if he does not get his commerce, his monetary future, a minimum of by celebrity requirements, is comparatively bleak.
His best-case state of affairs would doubtless be one thing much like what occurred to DeMar DeRozan in 2021. He had no straightforward suits among the many cap house groups. Rumors swirled that he might need to take a mid-level exception. The Bulls lastly bailed him out with a sign-and-trade. The issue right here is that to ensure that a staff to sign-and-trade considered one of their very own gamers, they should both retain his Fowl Rights or have the cap house to re-sign him earlier than buying and selling him.
Maybe Morey may finagle the latter via some order of operations shenanigans, however that might imply setting up a commerce during which he takes again no wage, which, in flip, means draft compensation to a 3rd staff. Philadelphia has little purpose to cooperate on that entrance. Extra doubtless, the Sixers simply surrender Harden after they discover free brokers they wish to signal outright. As soon as they’ve executed so, a sign-and-trade is off the desk.
The subsequent layer down is a mid-level exception. This offseason, the non-taxpayer mid-level exception begins at $12.4 million. That might be an enormous discount for the participant Harden is right now. If he declines with age, it is likely to be nearer to truthful a 12 months from now. In fact, Harden sees himself as a celebrity. Dropping from max cash to mid-level cash could be a bitter capsule for him to swallow. The choice is even worse. He want solely take a look at considered one of his former teammates to see it.
Russell Westbrook simply went from a most wage to, functionally, the minimal when he re-signed with the Clippers. It is a startlingly widespread decline for former stars. Westbrook, Blake Griffin, Carmelo Anthony, Marc Gasol and Andre Drummond have all gone from both max or near-max contracts instantly all the way down to the minimal upon both the expiration or buyouts of their earlier contracts. This is not Harden’s speedy future, however his decline may come at any time, and groups typically choose to keep away from fading stars. Bear in mind when Anthony needed to go on First Take to ask groups for a job? Harden comes with lots of the identical flaws.
Critical or not, Harden has expressed public interest in enjoying in China sometime. If a long-term NBA deal does not current itself subsequent offseason, that would come ahead of he thinks. Ultimately, it may very well be his most profitable possibility. Although salaries within the Chinese language Basketball Affiliation are minimal in comparison with the NBA, no international star of Harden’s caliber has ever made the leap to China. The endorsement alternatives, due to this fact, could be huge. That’s very true for Harden, particularly, as he spent his prime enjoying for the Houston Rockets. Previous to Morey’s feedback on Hong Kong, the Rockets had been China’s favourite NBA team as a result of they beforehand employed Chinese language star Yao Ming. Although a brand new NBA deal is clearly the likelier final result, if this factor spirals rapidly sufficient, it would not be out of the realm of chance for Harden to make the soar as quickly because the summer season of 2024.
There’s nothing inherently mistaken with any of those outcomes, particularly for a participant that has earned as a lot as Harden already has. He may create his cleanest path to a championship but by taking a pay lower, or he may set himself up for post-career riches in China. But when these had been Harden’s targets, he would not so desperately be pushing for a commerce to the Clippers right here and now. His purpose seems to be one final NBA payday, and with every day that passes with no Clippers commerce, that purpose turns into much less and fewer real looking.
