Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence playing his best football, what sparked QB’s resurgence?

The thing about “statement wins” is they only last until another statement is made; the NFL, after all, is a “What have you done for me lately?” league.

So when the Jaguars followed up a “Monday Night Football” triumph over the Chiefs with losses to the Seahawks and Rams, a one-point overtime escape against the Raiders and a 19-point fourth-quarter collapse to the Davis Mills-led Texans, the statement seemed to be these were the same ole’ Jaguars.

Actually, there were more questions than statements.

Was Trevor Lawrence really the answer at quarterback? Was Liam Coen really the answer at coach? Was James Gladstone really the answer at general manager? Was the Travis Hunter experiment — a costly one that required them moving up to the No. 2 draft pick — already a complete bust? The Jaguars were 5-4.

That was then. This is now: The Jaguars have won five straight games, a streak that includes impressive wins over the Chargers by 29 points and the Colts by 17. In a a 48-20 Week 15 blowout of the Jets on Sunday, Lawrence became the first player to throw for five touchdowns and run for at least 50 yards and a touchdown in a game.

Though Sunday’s performance was the historic one, Lawrence has been trending in the right direction for a while — during the entirety of this five-game winning streak, in fact.

Based on that last line, Lawrence has gone from playing at a level equivalent to Justin Fields to producing like a top-five quarterback league-wide. For context, Drake Maye leads the NFL at 0.23 expected points added per dropback this season. So, what’s happened?

Lawrence using his strengths more: mobility, big arm shining

Given the unsteady nature of Lawrence’s NFL career so far, it’s easy to forget how highly regarded he was coming out of Clemson in 2021. A big reason for that pedigree was his athletic skills: big arm, good athlete, mobile, able to create. Those attributes have shown up from time to time during his pro career, but never as consistently as they are right now.

Of all the plays Lawrence made against the Jets, his two best were ones where all of those skills were on display. First, this touchdown run, where he jukes out Will McDonald IV and beats everyone else to the end zone.

Second, this incredible 33-yard throw to Parker Washington:

Yes, the Jaguars won easily and, yes, it was against the Jets, but those are two of the most impressive plays you will see from any quarterback this season.

Not including kneeldowns, Lawrence has 21 carries for 131 yards and two touchdowns over the past five games, good for 6.2 yards per carry over that span.

But the downfield throwing has really been impressive. Sunday, Pro Football Focus listed Lawrence as 10 for 14 for a career-high 212 yards on throws 10+ yards downfield. Look at how much of the field he accesses.

Since Week 11, Lawrence is completing a league-best 61% of his throws at least 10 yards downfield (and that’s despite four drops). Only 8.2% of those throws have been off targets, the second-lowest rate in the league and a massive development for a player who can struggle with inaccuracy. He also hasn’t had a single turnover-worthy throw on those attempts.

“Definitely this is as confident as I’ve felt,” Lawrence said after Week 15. “Just the feeling in our locker room and our team and our offense. It’s been fun.”

Some scoffed when Gladstone said Meyers’ superpower was “not dropping the football” after acquiring him from the Raiders. But for a Jacksonville team that led the league in drops (24) and drop rate (8.6%) at the time, perhaps simply catching the ball really was a superpower.

Meyers has been so much more, though. During the five-game winning streak, he has caught 24 of 35 targets for 314 yards, three touchdowns and 19 first downs. The 19 first down receptions are tied for eighth-most in the NFL over that span.

He is also opening up an area previously inaccessible for Lawrence: the middle of the field. Over the past five weeks, Myers has been by far the NFL’s best wide receiver in this area. eight catches on 11 targets are 160 yards on “In” routes. All three categories lead the NFL. It has made a world of difference for Lawrence, too.

Meyers, a former quarterback, has impressed Lawrence and offensive coordinator Grant Udinski with his feel for the game.

“There’s a lot of different examples that show his feel,” Udinski said last week. “I think the first one that shows up is kind of his feel in space. You see some of these teams playing zone coverage where they have defenders who have vision on the quarterback and they have different spots to get to and different landmarks, or they’re reading off of what our routes are to kind of determine what their drop’s going to be. He has a feel for where those defenders are going, where they’re trying to get to, and then where his route fits off of that. And that kind of takes a second and third level order of processing, not just to know we tell you to get to this spot, but this spot is going to open up because we’re telling you to get to a spot that looks covered.”

It really shows on the “In” routes, where Lawrence is often throwing to spaces Meyers is yet to inhabit.

That’s high-level trust between quarterback and wide receiver, even if they’ve only been teammates for a month and a half.

With Meyers excelling on those routes, Brian Thomas Jr. is getting more vertical opportunities, and he is playing well once again after an inconsistent start to the year; he had 87 yards in Week 14 and 66 more (and a touchdown) in Week 15. His average depth of target has gone way up with Meyers in the fold, and the big plays have returned.

It’s hard to say Meyers has revolutionized this offense, but he has absolutely made a huge difference as a perimeter wide receiver able to do the dirty work, go over the middle and catch the ball consistently. The Jaguars have made a lot of moves for wide receivers recently; Meyers has been by far their most successful.

“We had a lot a of respect for Jakobi watching him over the years, whether it was in New England or in Vegas, knowing that he was going to be able to come in and make an immediate impact on our offense,” Coen said. “I think it’s helped open up not just the confidence that Trevor has being able to throw and catch, but also helps open up some other guys, right? Where you’ve got a few other people that the defense has to identify and defend, and ultimately you’re trying to make the defense defend every blade of grass, that’s both vertically and horizontally. He’s been huge for our offense.”

What’s ahead?

This is Lawrence at his best: the intermediate and deep throws, the scrambling, the negative play avoidance (zero sacks in three of the five games during the winning streak) … it’s all adding up. During its five game winning streak, Jacksonville is averaging a league-high 34.2 points per game and is first in yards per pass attempt.

Lawrence and Jacksonville both get opportunities to prove they belong over the coming weeks: A Week 16 game at the AFC-leading Broncos awaits, followed by a trip to the Colts. The Jaguars finish the season with a home game against the Titans. The next two games will be significant tests. Denver has arguably the league’s best defense, with cornerbacks who thrive in man-to-man coverage. Indianapolis will be desperately looking to win and keep pace in the AFC playoff race.

But behind Lawrence, the Jaguars have a one-game lead in the AFC South with three games left, a resurgence few could have seen coming. SportsLine gives them a 50% chance to win the division and a 98% chance to make the playoffs.

“We have to continue to build on that and can’t get complacent,” Lawrence said. “There’s still a lot more ahead of us. Some big games are coming up, so we have to continue to push and get better. There are still things we need to clean up, but it’s been a lot of fun. I feel great, feel confident. I think our whole offense feels this way.”