The final game of the 2025 college football regular season is the college football game of the year: the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. the No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers (12-0) in the Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday.
The conference title, the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff and possibly the Heisman Trophy will be on the line when these teams collide at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. One year after winning the CFP national championship, the Buckeyes (12-0) have cruised through the regular season, playing only one game that was decided by fewer than 18 points. Freshman quarterback Julian Sayin leads the country in completion percentage (78.9) and passing efficiency (184.9).
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Meanwhile, the Hoosiers (12-0) have played just two games decided by one score. Transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza tops the nation in passing touchdowns (32) and is second in passing efficiency (183.7).
Top sportsbooks have made Ohio State a 4.5-point favorite over Indiana. The line has dropped from -6.5.
So what should you make of all that line movement? Is it a market correction or an overreaction? Here’s a look at the Buckeyes-Hoosiers point spread, as well as the line movement of four other conference championship games. All times Eastern.
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 BYU (noon)
Open: Texas Tech -11.5
Current: Texas Tech -12.5
The Big 12 Championship Game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, is a rematch of a game played earlier this season in Lubbock, which the Red Raiders won 29-7. That final score doesn’t truly indicate how dominant Texas Tech was; the Red Raiders settled for five field goals in the game but still led 26-0 midway through the fourth quarter. That certainly is one reason this line has moved in favor of Tech. Also, the Red Raiders (11-1) are undefeated this season when quarterback Behren Morton starts. Meanwhile, BYU (11-1) seems to have gotten a lot of mileage in the rankings out of a three-point win over Utah. If Texas Tech doesn’t come in overconfident, the favorite seems to be the right side.
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Miami (Ohio) vs. Western Michigan (noon)
Open: Western Michigan -2.5
Current: Western Michigan -2.5
The MAC Championship Game also is a rematch. On Oct. 25, Miami rallied for a 26-17 victory over Western Michigan in Oxford, Ohio, after scoring 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. The RedHawks were a 2-point favorite in that game at home, so the Broncos’ being a slight favorite at a neutral site (Ford Field in Detroit) seems to make sense. This line opened at WMU -2.5 and has moved around a bit before settling back at 2.5. Western Michigan backers shouldn’t be scared off by the slight line movement, but Miami supporters may want to consider the money line instead of the point spread.
No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 9 Alabama (4 p.m.)
Open: Pick ’em
Current: Georgia -1.5
Even though the Crimson Tide (10-2) have owned the Bulldogs (11-1) recently, including a 24-21 victory in Athens earlier this season, I was surprised when the SEC Championship Game opened as a pick ’em. Georgia seems to be playing its best football of the year, while Alabama has been inconsistent down the stretch. In addition, Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart is a master at getting his team to play with an edge in these types of showdowns. I expect a highly motivated Georgia team to play one of its best games of the year. This had moved to Georgia -2.5 before ticking down to -1.5 Saturday morning, so Georgia backers should jump on this if they can.
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No. 17 Virginia vs. Duke (8 p.m.)
Open: Virginia -2.5
Current: Virginia -3.5
The ACC Championship Game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte is another rematch of a game played earlier this season. Just three weeks ago the Cavaliers blew out the Blue Devils, 34-17, in Durham, N.C., in a game Virginia led 31-3 entering the fourth quarter. That result has helped this line shift even more in favor of the Cavaliers. In addition, since Duke qualified for the ACC title game despite being 7-5, there has been a lot of talk about the Blue Devils’ worthiness — or lack thereof — which almost certainly has influenced the early betting. Over the last five games, Duke’s defense has allowed 34.6 points per game. This movement seems more like a market correction. It had jumped to Virginia -4 at one point but is settling at -3.5.
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana (8 p.m.)
Open: Ohio State -6.5
Current: Ohio State -4.5
Though the Buckeyes opened as 6.5-point favorites at Circa, the lookahead line for this game was Ohio State -3.5 two weeks ago, so -4.5 seems to be the right number for the Big Ten Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Very little seems to separate these teams. The Buckeyes lead the country in scoring defense (7.8 points per game), while the Hoosiers are second (10.9). Indiana is second in the nation in scoring offense (44.3), while Ohio State is 13th (37.0). The big question with the Buckeyes is whether they will experience a letdown one week after finally beating hated rival Michigan. If you have a strong opinion on this game, I wouldn’t be afraid to jump on a number you like as I don’t see the line moving significantly prior to kickoff.
