Cooperation between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan within the subject of transport and transit needs to be thought-about inside the paradigm of intensifying regional interplay. In 2018, the Central Asian nations, on the highest ranges, actualized the difficulty of rapprochement of their transport and communication methods with the intention to broaden the transit potential of the area. Tashkent and Dushanbe are making nice efforts to implement this process, which aligns with the nationwide transport methods of each nations. Tajikistan has adopted a “State Target Development Program of Transport Complex till 2025,” whereas Uzbekistan has developed and submitted for approval a “Strategy for the Development of the Transport System until 2035.”
In 2018, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev made his first state visit to Tajikistan. Following the outcomes of bilateral negotiations, an settlement on the transit of products by way of the territory of Uzbekistan was signed. The doc was initiated by the Tajik aspect, which sought extra favorable situations for utilizing Uzbek transit when servicing worldwide cargo transportation. An necessary milestone in attaining this objective was the settlement between the authorities of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan on the mutual abolition of permits for automobiles transiting by way of their territories. Yearly, Uzbekistan allows greater than 36,000 Tajik vehicles concerned in transit deliveries to move by way of its borders. It’s anticipated that the abolition of permits will intensify this course of, and together with it, broaden transit capabilities of the 2 states with all the following advantages.
Previous to fixing these sensible issues, a number of vital occasions occurred, notably the restoration of the actions of eight car checkpoints on the frequent border, in addition to the resumption of freight and passenger visitors alongside key transport routes. For instance, in 2018, the Galaba-Amuzang-Khoshadi railway was restored, connecting the southern areas of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The Dushanbe-Khujand-Chanak highway, serving Eurasian transit visitors, was rehabilitated.
It’s noteworthy that within the first 12 months after the reactivation of transport communication, the commerce turnover between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan increased by greater than 50 p.c and has continued to develop steadily since then. The previous seven years has seen an nearly fourfold enhance in mutual commerce, from $197 million to $757 million. As of 2023, Tajikistan ranked eleventh amongst Uzbekistan’s companions by way of international commerce turnover.
The volumes of bilateral cargo transportation are much more spectacular. From 2016 to 2023, this determine increased 25 instances on rail and two instances on highway transport, which in whole exceeded 9 million tons. Nevertheless, this determine doesn’t replicate the true potential of the 2 nations, given their excessive charges of demographic and financial development.
In response to World Financial institution forecasts, in 2024, the GDPs of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will enhance by 6.5 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. Within the medium time period, financial development is anticipated to be on the stage of 4.5-5.5 p.c. Given this development, the objective has been set to carry commerce turnover to $2 billion, which is able to entail a major enhance in cargo visitors in each instructions. To make sure its well timed and high-quality service, it’s essential to modernize the transport infrastructure, create a contemporary transport administration system, and set up quick and uninterrupted communication routes. Fulfilling these duties isn’t low-cost, and right here the capabilities of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are restricted.
One efficient answer to the issue of funding deficits within the transport sectors of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan may very well be their joint integration into worldwide transport corridors. This can contribute to rising their transit potential and herald strong earnings.
On account of their location, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan act as a nodal hyperlink within the provide chain between the most important financial facilities of Eurasia. Participation in international transport tasks permits Dushanbe and Tashkent to strengthen their reference to world markets and broaden the geography of exports, whereas additionally incomes income from the transit of worldwide cargo. Understanding this, each nations have prioritized the creation of mutually useful commerce routes of interregional significance of their transport methods.
The China-Tajikistan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey-Europe multimodal hall mission holds nice promise. It was created by merging two transport arteries that had been put into operation in 2022: the China-Tajikistan-Uzbekistan freeway and the Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey railway route. For Uzbekistan, the brand new car hall is notable as a result of it can relieve the Kamchik Go, which connects the Tashkent area with the Fergana Valley, by redirecting the move of industrial quality automobiles to Tajikistan. And Tajikistan, in flip, due to Uzbek transit, positive factors comparatively fast entry to the markets of Turkey and the European Union.
On the identical time, Dushanbe can also be creating different routes with entry to related markets that bypass Uzbekistan. Specifically, work has resumed on the development of the Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Turkmenistan railway (the TAT mission). In July 2024 the Ministry of Transport of Tajikistan and the Korea Worldwide Cooperation Company (KOICA) agreed to develop a feasibility examine for the Jaloliddini Balkhi-Panji Poyon railway mission, which might be linked to the borders of Afghanistan. This freeway will grow to be a part of the TAT mission, which, in flip, will compete with the Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Oman multimodal commerce route, launched in 2016 based mostly on the Ashgabat settlement.
Tajikistan is in search of to implement one other equally necessary railway route, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Iran hyperlink or the 5 Nations Railway Hall. Full implementation of the mission, with its enlargement to the West (instead outlet for East and Central Asian nations to the markets of the European Union), and the Center East (to attach with the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf) won’t solely facilitate the efficient integration of Tajikistan into the worldwide provide chain, however may also strengthen the nation’s place within the Afghan course.
The significance of Tajikistan within the growth of trans-Afghan communications continues to be underestimated. This is because of each the hostility of Dushanbe to the brand new authorities of Afghanistan and the stagnation of some strategic initiatives during which Tajikistan might play a decisive position. Probably the most promising of those is the mission to revive the traditional commerce route from China to Afghanistan, referred to as the Wakhan Hall.
The route runs by way of the high-mountain Wakhan Valley (the territory of the Lesser Pamirs within the Afghan province of Badakhshan), the place the borders of Afghanistan, China, Tajikistan, and Pakistan meet.
With the opening of the Wakhan Hall, Tajikistan would have the shortest entry to the markets of China and Pakistan, in addition to extra distant nations and continents by way of Pakistani ports on the Indian Ocean. On this state of affairs, the nation has an awesome probability of changing into a hub within the Central Asia-South Asia provide chain and competing with Uzbek transit, the significance of which is anticipated to extend much more after the launch of the Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway, scheduled for 2030.
Presently the implementation of the Wakhan Hall is proscribed by the safety think about Afghanistan, the complexity of the native terrain, and the excessive value of the mission. Nevertheless, in August 2024, the Taliban introduced the completion of a 50-kilometer gravel highway connecting Badakhshan with the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Area of China. The work was carried out on the expense of price range funds. In an effort to flip the highway right into a full-fledged transit and commerce route, massive investments are wanted. Afghan authorities are relying on help from Beijing, which is taking a wait-and-see strategy to the Wakhan Hall.
Regardless of the potential for a battle of pursuits on the transport and transit observe, it’s nonetheless useful for Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to cooperate fairly than compete with one another. Within the present state of affairs, the nations ought to deal with eliminating bottlenecks within the concern of transport convergence. It’s vital to make sure the coherence of transport methods and tariff and worth insurance policies, work to enhance positions in all indicators of the Logistics Efficiency Index (LPI), together with the effectivity of customs clearance, the timeliness of cargo deliveries, the standard of infrastructure and transport companies.
