How Cole Palmer’s improbable miss could cost Chelsea more than just points

Some might call it the miss of the season. Chelsea’s Cole Palmer had an opportunity to send the Blues to victory on Tuesday against Leeds and greatly boost their Champions League qualification chances, but he missed a shot in the final seconds that you would not believe in a disappointing 2-2 draw.

Palmer’s shot went over the bar from right in front of goal, missing everything, with a wide-open net in front of him. For a player whose nickname is “Cold Palmer,” the ice was not in his veins in the final moments, and with Chelsea in fifth place, only five points ahead of Liverpool and Brentford, who are currently outside the Champions League race but have a game in hand, it could be quite a result in the race for European soccer next season. 

Despite the miss versus Leeds United being a 0.87 xG miss for Palmer, theoretically easier than his 0.79 xG penalty kick that he slotted home, it isn’t saying that it’s a major issue (xG is a stat that estimates how likely a shot is to become a goal between zero and one). Palmer’s return from injury does make Chelsea more dangerous as a team, but with Joao Pedro in the middle, they need his creative touch as much as his scoring touch. Palmer’s assist to the Brazilian in the first half was his first of the season after securing eight last season for Chelsea, and even during the Club World Cup, it was his assists that drove the Blues to the final. It’s still early days under new coach Liam Rosenior, and Chelsea are functioning better as a team than they did under Enzo Maresca, but there’s still work to do.  

Chelsea were cruising in the match until Moises Caicedo conceded a penalty with a challenge on Jayden Bogle before Lucas Nemcha’s shot from the spot beat Robert Sanchez for a goal. Seven minutes later, Noah Okafor was turning the ball into the back of the net to secure a true smash and grab result for Leeds, who, in their own right, have been getting results to get away from the relegation zone as they’re now safe by six points over 18th-placed West Ham United. Just the xG for both teams shows how far ahead Chelsea were, but taking a look at this race chart below showing the xG progression of the game, it drives home how lopsided of a match this was.

Chelsea created plenty of chances, and with Palmer having eight Premier League goals and one assist, he’s been everywhere when healthy for Chelsea, but five of those goals have also come from the penalty spot, as Chelsea being adept while dribbling gives Palmer plenty of chances to score from the spot. Here’s a look at his shot map with penalties:

And another look without them, where there’s a drastic difference and more misses from the center of the box than one would expect. No extra credit for spotting which one of the large black circles came against Leeds with a chance to win.

It seemed like the Blues were in the driver’s seat for a Champions League spot, but matches like this one are a reminder that on any given day, upsets can happen in soccer, but with an FA Cup match facing Hull City and a home match hosting Burnley coming up, there will be time for the Blues to get this one out of their system before a critical March 1 tie with Arsenal that will have serious implications not only on the top four, but also on the Premier League title race.