Relating to the NFL preseason, the video games are typically seen as being fairly meaningless. If a workforce has a great presason, that does not essentially imply they’re going to be good throughout the common season and in case you want proof, simply ask the 2008 Detroit Lions and 2017 Cleveland Browns about that. Each groups went 4-0 within the preseason earlier than going 0-16 within the regular-season.
Though the preseason does not actually function a great predictor for the common season, there was one stat that has one way or the other translated to regular-season success and that is level differential. And in case you’re a fan of the New York Giants, that is the place you are going to need to begin paying consideration.
Because of their 42-10 win over the New England Patriots on Thursday evening, the Giants will end the preseason with a file of 3-0. In these three video games, the Giants outscored their opponents by 60 factors.
The rationale that is notable is as a result of over the previous 16 years, some extent differential of 60 appears to be the magic quantity when attempting to determine if a workforce’s preseason success will translate to the common season.
The Giants are the eighth workforce since 2009 to complete a preseason with some extent differential of +60 or extra, and of the seven earlier groups, SIX of them made the playoffs, together with two groups that went on to win the Super Bowl.
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Additionally, in a pleasant twist: Russell Wilson was the beginning quarterback for 2 of the seven groups on the listing and he’ll be the Giants’ starter in Week 1.
Let’s take a look at the opposite seven groups on the listing:
- Preseason file: 3-1
- Level differential: +69
- Common-season: 13-3
The Saints began the common season 13-0 on their approach to profitable the NFC South. Within the playoffs, issues bought even higher as they ended up profitable the Super Bowl for the primary time in franchise historical past.
2011 Detroit Lions
- Preseason file: 4-0
- Level differential: +67
- Common-season: 10-6
After going 11 years with no playoff berth, the Lions drought lastly ended. It got here throughout a season the place they blew everybody out within the preseason.
- Preseason file: 4-0
- Level differential: +78
- Common-season: 11-5
Throughout Russell Wilson’s rookie yr, the Seahawks blew out everybody within the preseason after which proceeded to additionally dominate throughout the common season. After ending second within the NFC West, the Seahawks received a wild-card playoff sport earlier than dropping, 30-28, within the divisional spherical to Atlanta. The Falcons hit a 49-yard area objective with eight seconds left to clinch the win.
2013 Seattle Seahawks
- Preseason file: 4-0
- Level differential: +73
- Common-season: 13-3
Pete Carroll clearly took his preseason soccer critically, as a result of for the second straight yr, not solely did the Seahawks go 4-0 within the preseason, however they as soon as once more outscored their opponents by a minimum of 70 factors. The 2013 season ended with Carroll and the Seahawks hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after beating the Broncos in Tremendous Bowl XLVIII.
2014 Denver Broncos
- Preseason file: 3-1
- Level differential: +62
- Common-season: 12-4
Throughout Peyton manning’s penultimate season in Denver, the Broncos rolled by the preseason with two of their three wins coming by a minimum of 24 factors. Their preseason dominance translated to the common season with Denver profitable the AFC West. Nevertheless, they did get upset by the Colts within the divisional spherical of the playoffs.
- Preseason file: 4-0
- Level differential: +66
- Common-season: 14-2
John Harbaugh likes to play to win within the preseason and we all know that as a result of Baltimore as soon as received an NFL-record 24 straight preseason video games. Throughout that streak, this was the one season the place the Ravens outscored their preseason opponents by a minimum of 60 factors. Within the common season, not solely did the Ravens end with the most effective file within the NFL, however Lamar Jackson additionally received MVP.
- Preseason file: 4-0
- Level differential: +68
- Common-season: 5-12
The Bears are the one workforce over the previous 16 years to outscore their opponents by a minimum of 60 factors within the preseason and NOT make the playoffs. Though they went 5-12, they have been loads nearer to creating the postseason than their file may counsel. This workforce misplaced seven video games by one rating, together with an NFL-high FIVE losses that got here by three factors or much less. The Bears have been 4-2 at one level final season and would have been 5-2 if they may have stopped Jayden Daniels from finishing a Hail Mary in opposition to them in Week 8. The Bears additionally had a missed area objective on the ultimate play in a 20-19 loss in opposition to the Packers in Week 11. And let’s not overlook, that they had the clock run out on them in a three-point Thanksgiving loss to the Lions. It’d sound loopy to say, however this workforce was only a few performs away from going 9-8 and even 10-7.
Anyway, even with Chicago’s five-win season, the seven groups above nonetheless managed to win a median of 11.1 video games per season.
The Giants are actually the eighth workforce to outscore their preseason opponents by 60 or extra factors since 2009. If historical past holds, which means they’re going to probably be headed to a minimum of the playoffs. In fact, it will not be straightforward, the Giants do have the hardest power of schedule within the NFL this yr.
If you happen to return 20 years, there would solely be one different workforce added to this listing: The 2006 Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have been 8-5 at one level and needed to win simply certainly one of their last three video games to make the playoffs, however they fell aside down the stretch, which together with two heartbreaking losses over their last two video games. In Week 16, they botched an additional level try with beneath a minute left in a 24-23 loss to the Broncos. In Week 17, they misplaced 23-17 to the Steelers in extra time after Pittsburgh scored on a 67-yard landing cross simply 90 seconds into OT.
Of the eight groups over the previous 20 years to outscore their opponents by 60 factors or extra within the preseason, seven have completed with a file of .500 or higher, six have made the playoffs and solely the Bears have completed beneath .500.
