Europe’s curiosity in Central Asia has elevated sharply following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Whereas this consideration is principally pushed by Europe’s need to diversify away from Russian fossil fuels, there are key variations within the methods through which particular person European international locations pursue their respective power pursuits. Apart from power, geopolitical and safety issues more and more play a task in Europe’s engagement with Central Asia.
France and Italy are significantly lively within the area with their power and protection industries. Their foremost focus is Kazakhstan, adopted by Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Vitality
Within the power sector, France and Italy pursue related however distinct pursuits. For France, uranium is essential for the safety of its power system, which is dominated by nuclear power. Between 2013 and 2023, France sourced most of its uranium from Kazakhstan (27 p.c), Niger (20 p.c), and Uzbekistan (19 p.c). Following the 2023 navy coup in Niger, reliance on Central Asian uranium is ready to extend.
Paris’ concentrate on securing uranium provides aligns with the ambitions of French mining big Orano, which performs a major position within the area’s uranium manufacturing. Orano holds a 51 p.c stake in KATCO, the world’s largest uranium producer, in partnership with Kazakhstan’s nationwide atomic power firm, Kazatomprom. Past Kazakhstan, Orano has expanded its operations into Uzbekistan, the place it shaped the three way partnership Nurlikum Mining in 2019. Throughout French President Emmanuel Macron’s November 2023 go to to Uzbekistan, discussions signaled a mutual need to deepen this partnership, suggesting that France’s power footprint within the area is ready to develop.
A go to by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to Paris in November 2024 aimed to cement the deepening partnership between Kazakhstan and France. Round 200 corporations with French capital at the moment function in Kazakhstan, spanning sectors comparable to transportation, aerospace, and power. Amongst these, Orano stays pivotal, not solely in uranium mining but additionally as a possible associate in a global consortium to assemble a nuclear energy plant in Kazakhstan, which is more likely to additionally include Électricité de France (EDF). Moreover, a roadmap for bilateral cooperation in important uncooked supplies, signed through the go to, highlights a shared concentrate on the exploration and mining of important sources and the creation of sustainable provide chains.
Whereas France’s power technique in Central Asia is centered on uranium, Italy has targeted totally on oil and gasoline. Central Asia, with Kazakhstan specifically, has grow to be a sexy different fossil gasoline provider for Europe, though a big share of Central Asian oil and gasoline continues to be transported through Russia. Italy has accounted for 27.9 p.c of Kazakh oil exports, a lot of which is redistributed throughout Europe. Italian power big ENI, partially state-owned, is deeply entrenched in Kazakhstan’s oil and gasoline sector. ENI holds important stakes in two of Kazakhstan’s largest power fields: a 16.81 p.c share within the Kashagan offshore oil subject and 29.25 p.c within the Karachaganak gas-condensate subject. Italy’s investments in Kazakhstan prolong past oil; in January 2024, Italian corporations, together with ENI, pledged $1.5 billion in investments targeted on power and significant uncooked supplies throughout a Kazakh-Italian roundtable in Rome.
Italy’s power pursuits additionally stretch to Turkmenistan, residence to the world’s fourth-largest pure gasoline reserves. Whereas formal cooperation between Italy and Turkmenistan stays restricted, latest developments may sign a shift. In August 2023, Turkmenistan signed a deal to produce pure gasoline to the European Union, probably paving the best way for Italy to grow to be a future purchaser. This highlights Italy’s rising position in diversifying Europe’s power provide because it seeks alternate options to Russian power, though largely specializing in gasoline.
Collectively, these engagements mirror a broader European technique of securing partnerships for power sources in Central Asia. France and Italy’s efforts not solely underline the area’s significance as a key provider of uranium, oil, and gasoline but additionally sign the potential for future collaboration in renewable power and significant uncooked supplies important for Europe’s power transition.
Safety
Since February 2022, Russia has been much less eager to export arms, and this has created alternatives for France and Italy. France specifically has sought to capitalize on strained relations between Astana and Moscow to expand its defense industries. It has had a navy cooperation agreement with Kazakhstan since 2011, which laid the inspiration for arms commerce, personnel coaching, and joint workout routines. Over the previous decade, French protection exports to Kazakhstan have included technologies comparable to Thales’ Floor Grasp 400 air protection system, first delivered in 2014 and now partially produced in Kazakhstan by means of a three way partnership established in 2017. The availability of additional Floor Grasp 400 techniques was introduced following Macron’s 2023 Astana go to, with the Élysée presenting the sale as “boosting the sovereignty” of Kazakhstan.
French protection ties with Kazakhstan prolong past radar techniques. Airbus, one other key participant, has delivered ten C295 transport aircraft since 2013, with extra orders. In April 2024, Airbus introduced that it had accomplished the manufacturing of the primary A400M military transport plane for the Kazakh Air Protection Forces, with a second A400M to be delivered on an undisclosed second.
Nevertheless, not all French ambitions have succeeded. Talks throughout Macron’s 2023 go to to Kazakhstan included the potential sale of Rafale fighter jets by Dassault Aviation, however in August 2024, Kazakhstan opted as a substitute for six Russian-made Su-30SM fighter jets, claiming the Rafale jets have been too costly. France’s intended sale of Rafale fighter jets to Uzbekistan equally didn’t materialize. This represents a notable setback for France’s aspirations on Central Asian protection markets.
Italy, in the meantime, has established itself as a major provider of navy {hardware} within the area, significantly to Turkmenistan. Knowledge from the Stockholm Worldwide Peace Analysis Institute (SIPRI) shows constant Italian protection exports to Turkmenistan, together with AW139 and A-109K helicopters, Falco UAVs, and naval weaponry comparable to Compact 40L70 weapons and Marte-2 anti-ship missiles. In 2021 alone, Italy delivered an array of superior techniques, together with Tremendous Speedy 76mm naval weapons and C-27J Spartan transport plane. Italian corporations have additionally bought to Kazakhstan, delivering related tools, comparable to M-346FA plane, naval weapons, and Otomat-2 missiles. Smaller arms gross sales, together with Beretta rifles and pistols to Turkmenistan, reflect Italy’s broader protection footprint.
Each France and Italy’s protection engagements in Central Asia align intently with the pursuits of their personal protection sectors. Firms like Thales, Dassault, and Leonardo have discovered Central Asia to be a probably profitable market, supported by their respective governments’ efforts to spice up their home champions and deepen strategic ties with key power suppliers. This convergence of geopolitical ambition and personal trade curiosity highlights the twin objective of those protection offers: increasing affect in an more and more strategic area whereas reinforcing power safety relationships.
Central Asia’s Perspective
For Central Asian governments, the growing engagement of French and Italian power and protection industries presents a possibility to diversify their exterior partnerships past Russia and China whereas securing entry to superior know-how and experience. Kazakhstan exemplifies this technique by means of its multi-vector foreign policy, which prioritizes engagement with a wide range of worldwide companions reasonably than alignment with a single bloc or actor.
The market in Central Asia is essentially dominated by Chinese language corporations, which compete with the Europeans. Orano, for instance, faces stiff competition in Uzbekistan from China’s state-run China Nuclear Uranium within the growth of recent mines. China can be the main customer of Turkmen gasoline, and whereas Turkmenistan undoubtedly views Europe as a profitable potential marketplace for pure gasoline exports, plans for a pipeline connecting it to Europe have thus far did not materialize.
Safety issues additionally issue closely into the issues of Central Asian governments. For Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, longstanding issues in regards to the spillover of Islamist extremism from Afghanistan have intensified with the resurgence of the Taliban. Apart from going through real threats from militant teams, Central Asian governments have routinely used the label of violent extremism to jail political opponents. This provides safety forces a important position within the Central Asian political regimes.
Whereas European protection partnerships will be enticing for enhancing their safety forces, Central Asian governments are more likely to proceed exploiting their place in a aggressive market to realize their required navy {hardware}. Each European governments and firms face stiff competitors in Central Asia. Russian affect within the area stays robust, which is exemplified by Kazakhstan’s alternative of Russia’s Su-30SM fighter jets over the French Rafale.
Europe not solely faces competitors from Russia within the area; China, Turkiye, India and Iran, amongst others, have more and more provided navy coaching and tools. This raises a important query: To what extent can European international locations and firms, typically related to high-priced tools, set up themselves as viable long-term safety companions within the area?
Central Asia’s evolving geopolitical position is not only about balancing exterior actors; it’s about leveraging these partnerships to pursue their very own nationwide and elite pursuits. By participating with a broader array of nations, Central Asian states intention to spice up their sovereignty, diversify their economies, and strengthen their safety forces. On this context, the rising presence of French and Italian corporations in power and protection affords potential advantages, however Central Asian governments will, in the intervening time, doubtless proceed to hedge their bets amongst a variety of world companions.
