Federal Reserve’s December rate decision has drastically dropped by 60% after October jobs data missing news.
A key Polymarket contract tracking the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision has seen its probability of a cut plunge from nearly 90% in late October to just about 30% today, as traders grapple with the fallout from the missing October jobs report and heightened macro uncertainty.
Related: Bitcoin, XRP crash as markets react to missing Jobs report
The prediction market – which currently shows “No change” at 66% and “25 bps decrease” at 32% – has undergone its steepest repricing since the shutdown began disrupting U.S. economic data flow.
Just three weeks ago, the 25-bps cut contract was trading above 90%, which meant traders were confident that the Fed would resume easing before year-end.
That conviction evaporated on Wednesday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed it will not release a full October jobs report, citing the record-length government shutdown.
Instead, October data will be merged into the November report, now delayed to Dec.16 – six days after the Fed’s December 9 – 10 meeting.
Without fresh employment data, traders now believe the Fed is more likely to hold. One top Polymarket participant wrote: “No Data, No Cut.”
The lack of visibility comes as crypto and equities remain volatile. Bitcoin dipped below $88,000 earlier today before recovering above $89,000, while tech stocks, particularly Nvidia, kept broader risk markets on edge ahead of earnings.
The Fed contract has now logged more than $119 million in volume, making it one of Polymarket’s most-traded macro markets this quarter.
