Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys on the bench.
It’s too early to be absolutely sure which matchups will be easy and which will be tough, but we can make some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decision-making.
Let’s go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to start Bijan Robinson). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
Dave Richard’s Week 4 rankings: Top 150 | QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST
It was cool to see Harold Fannin Jr. score twice last week, but he wasn’t the primary read on either play, and Watson had plenty of time to throw on both plays, stressed by the pass rush on just one of the two. The Steelers have allowed three long receptions to tight ends in their past two games, typically because of poor coverage, which Fannin could always draw, but Fannin has run 10-plus yards downfield on 10 of his 86 routes so far this season. I would buy into his target volume staying at or above six, however, because he has a 22% target-per-route-run rate against zone coverage, the Steelers lead the NFL in zone-coverage snaps, and they stick with it when they’re winning or in a competitive game. He just hasn’t done a lot with his catches versus zone: 7.0 yards per target and 1.47 yards per route run. I’d rather roll the dice on Darren Waller in a great matchup or Kenyon Sadiq banking on another good week.
DK Metcalf tends to see a few more opportunities when facing defenses that play a heavy amount of single-high safety coverage. Eight of his 10 targets in Week 1 and four of his five targets in Week 3 came against one-high. No one plays more single-high coverage than the Browns, and they’ve already allowed five touchdowns to wideouts on the year, though just one in each of their past two games. I would guess the Browns will dial up the blitz rate and try to get Aaron Rodgers uncomfortable quickly, but as sneaky good as this defense is, it played 77 snaps on Sunday against the Panthers and could be ripe to allow some numbers. It’s a rare time when I’d be OK starting Metcalf as a No. 3 receiver or flex.
- START: Jaylen Warren, Steelers DST, Browns DST
- FLEX: DK Metcalf, Quinshon Judkins (non-PPR flex)
- SIT: Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Harold Fannin (borderline TE), Denzel Boston (desperation PPR WR), KC Concepcion, Michael Pittman, Pat Freiermuth, Raheim Sanders, Roman Wilson
Through three weeks, the Commanders have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends and six touchdowns to wide receivers. That’s pretty much all you need to know about how bad the Commanders’ pass defense has been rolling, but there’s an added wrinkle that should make you more excited to consider Tyler Warren, Josh Downs, and Keenan Allen for Week 4 usage. Washington’s been bringing lots of blitzes in its past two games and has barely made a dent: a 33.7% pass rush pressure rate and two sacks despite a 47% blitz rate on opponents’ dropbacks. A comfortable Daniel Jones is a dangerous Daniel Jones, so much so that you almost have to give him some attention as a spot starter. Sam Darnold, Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts each had at least 30.7 Fantasy points against the Commanders so far this season.
- MUST-START: Jonathan Taylor
- START: Terry McLaurin, Josh Downs, Tyler Warren
- FLEX: Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Jacory Croskey-Merritt (low-end non-PPR flex)
- SIT: Marcus Mariota (borderline start), Daniel Jones (desperation start), Rachaad White (desperation PPR RB), Antonio Williams, Commanders DST, Colts DST
Desperate times call for desperate running back starts in Fantasy, but expectations should remain low with Tony Pollard. It is great that he’s averaging 4.6 yards per rush and has been a little bit more efficient on zone runs, which the Ravens have actually struggled with against tough competition like Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams. But the four targets he got last week all came on checkdowns, so it’s not like that’s a new wrinkle in the Titans offense we can trust. If there’s anything remotely encouraging, it’s that the Titans have been close in each of their past two games, and the closer they are in games, the more work Pollard will get. That’s about the best argument I could make for him as a No. 3 Fantasy running back.
The expectation is for the Ravens to feed Derrick Henry against his former team, but at some point, they’re going to have to pass, and when they do, they’ll have an outstanding matchup for Zay Flowers to exploit and even a decent one for Mark Andrews. The Titans have leaned into zone coverage this season, really only turning to man-to-man on some third downs. They’ll also play with a lot of two-high safety looks. When facing a two-high zone, Flowers has averaged a preposterous 45.5% target per route rate and 5.45 yards per route run, while Andrews has a more-reasonable-and still-great 30% target per route rate and 2.70 yards per route run. Andrews’ lack of involvement last week and touchdownless streak through three games could be rectified when the Ravens use play-action in the red zone. That could be enough for Andrews to be a desperation starter.
- MUST-START: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers
- START: Ravens DST
- FLEX: Tony Pollard (low-end non- and half-PPR flex)
- SIT: Cam Ward, Mark Andrews (desperation TE), Wan’Dale Robinson, Carnell Tate, Rashod Bateman, Tyjae Spears, Titans DST
Last year the Patriots weren’t afraid to play a lot of man-to-man coverage against the Bills, going with one-high safety looks in an attempt to slow down the run and take their chances through the air. It sort of worked in Week 5 when they won 23-20 and stuffed the run but gave up two receiving touchdowns, and it did not work in what amounted to a 35-31 shootout loss in Week 15 when the Pats played without defensive run stoppers Milton Williams and Robert Spillane and the Bills did whatever they wanted. My guess is that the D.J. Moore addition won’t be enough to push the Patriots into a conservative zone-coverage plan with two high safeties, meaning they’ll prioritize their run defense and take their chances with one safety back. For Moore, it’ll probably mean seeing a lot of Christian Gonzalez, who has been statistically outstanding in coverage this season. That would hurt his numbers for sure. As for Dalton Kincaid, he has not been a go-to for Josh Allen against man-to-man coverage this year (11.1% target per route run rate), but he was the guy for Allen in two games against the Patriots’ man coverage last year (30% target rate, 3.25 yards per route run). I suspect Kincaid will especially be a focal point if Moore draws Gonzalez in coverage.
- MUST-START: Josh Allen, James Cook
- START: Dalton Kincaid, Rhamondre Stevenson (low-end No. 2 RB), Bills DST
- FLEX: D.J. Moore
- SIT: Drake Maye, Mack Hollins (desperation start), Romeo Doubs, Khalil Shakir, TreVeyon Henderson, Hunter Henry, Demario Douglas, Keon Coleman, Patriots DST
I was reminded by a good friend this week that Ben Johnson went up against Aaron Glenn in practice every day for three seasons in Detroit, and that should create plenty of edges for the Bears to attack. New York’s been zone-leaning this season on first and second downs, going single-high with more frequent man-to-man coverage on third downs. And while Glenn’s green guys have varied their blitzing rates based on game script, they’re just not getting a ton of pressure (under 30% pressure in each of their past two games, whether they blitz or not). This is perfect for Chicago; a week ago, I figured the Bears would use quick-game passing against the Eagles and it would mean at least a good game for Luther Burden III. They can do that again, but they’ll also have at least a few more plays where the quarterback can take an extra beat to make a decision on where to go with the ball. Kalif Raymond leads prominent Bears pass-catchers this year with a 35.3% target per route rate and 4.12 yards per target against single high (Burden is right behind him), while Burden leads the way against two-high looks with modest efficiency (Raymond right behind him). Those are the two Bears pass-catchers to flex.
- START: Garrett Wilson, D’Andre Swift, Braelon Allen (low-end No. 2 RB), Kenyon Sadiq (low-end TE)
- FLEX: Luther Burden III, Kalif Raymond
- SIT: Geno Smith (borderline start), Case Keenum/Tyson Bagent, Rome Odunze (desperation WR), Colston Loveland (desperation TE), Kyle Monangai, Isaiah Davis (deep PPR stash), Bears DST, Jets DST
Through three weeks, the Bengals have played the third-lowest rate of zone coverage and are leaning single-high. They especially love going to man-to-man coverage on third down in medium-yardage situations. This is when I suspect we’ll see Trevor Lawrence lean on Jakobi Meyers: against man coverage this year, he’s seen a target on three of every 10 routes with nearly three yards per route run. That’s some real good efficiency against a defense that let up 15 PPR points to Roman Wilson and 12.1 to DK Metcalf last week. The Jaguars’ passing game will be the toughest the Bengals have seen to date, and the Jaguars’ offensive line will be the toughest front the Bengals’ blitz-weak pass rush has faced so far. That only helps Lawrence.
- MUST-START: Ja’Marr Chase, Chase Brown, Tee Higgins, Parker Washington
- START: Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Bhayshul Tuten
- FLEX: Jakobi Meyers
- SIT: Brian Thomas Jr., Mike Gesicki, Brenton Strange, Bengals DST, Jaguars DST
The report suggesting more work is in store for Woody Marks makes sense — he’s got a little more juice to his game than David Montgomery, though recent stats would suggest otherwise. Montgomery’s 1.7 rushing average was better than Marks’ 1.0 in Week 2, and both averaged 3.0 rush yards in Week 3. Both of them are held back by a Texans offensive line that’s in rough shape for the third straight season, giving a league-worst 0.59 yards before contact to its running backs through three weeks. At least Marks’ solid speed can help him win on edge runs, plus he’s already being used in passing situations. I might expect Marks to take a few more carries from Montgomery but otherwise, I’m not particularly optimistic they’ll be able to get gobs of yardage, even against a Cowboys run defense that has certainly yielded rushing touchdowns so far but are in the top 10 in defensive rush EPA and explosive rush rate allowed, all while seeing the fifth-most RB rushes per game.
- MUST-START: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Nico Collins
- START: Javonte Williams, Texans DST
- FLEX: David Montgomery
- SIT: C.J. Stroud, Dalton Schultz (borderline PPR start), Woody Marks (desperation PPR RB), Jake Ferguson (desperation TE), Jaylin Noel, Broncos DST
There are going to be real issues if the Giants passing game can’t get going this week. Arizona sports one of the weaker pass rush units in the league: the seventh-lowest pass rush pressure rate (32.2%) and four sacks in three games. The only time they had a pass rush pressure rate over 30% was Week 1 against the flawed Chargers offensive line. The only game the Giants have failed to protect their quarterback was Week 2 in Aaron Donald’s return when Jaxson Dart went down with an injury; all three sacks the Titans had last week were avoidable if Winston got the ball out on time. And that’s part of the Giants biggest problem — Winston is a little bit slower in his movements, slower in his release and slower in his velocity, all of which contribute to his passes not connecting with his targets. He either needs his guys to get wide open (like Darnell Mooney did on his 33-yard catch in Week 2) or get a little lucky in a scramble drill (like he did with Cam Skattebo on a 30-yard lob) in order to make his numbers tick up. This would be the kind of opponent for such things to happen, but assume a lot of risk with Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely before you commit to them in lineups. And if you’re in a two-QB league, make the roster space for J.J. McCarthy because he’s going to play at some point.
- MUST-START: Trey McBride
- START: Cam Skattebo, Jeremiyah Love, Michael Wilson (low-end No. 2 WR), Isaiah Likely
- FLEX: Malik Nabers
- SIT: Jacoby Brissett (borderline start), Jameis Winston, Marvin Harrison Jr., Kendrick Bourne, Tyler Allgeier, Najee Harris, Cardinals DST, Giants DST
L.A.’s pass defense has improved since their Week 1 trip to Australia, holding the Giants and Broncos’ top target-getting wide receivers and tight ends to 8.3 or fewer PPR points each. Cornerback Trent McDuffie has been a huge piece for the Rams, lining up against Malik Nabers in Week 2 and Jaylen Waddle in Week 3, holding both to under 6.5 PPR points each. Hand in hand with that is a Rams defense that’s beginning to alter its week-to-week approach, not always sticking with heavy zone coverage and not always blitzing a ton, yet still getting plenty of pass-rush pressure (45% without blitzing in Week 3). It’s clear at this point that the pass rush is affecting Jalen Hurts passing, almost as much as defenses that change coverages and put defenders where Hurts isn’t expecting them. The Rams are certain to do both of those things and line up McDuffie against DeVonta Smith, putting the Eagles offense in some tough spots. This is where leaning on Saquon Barkley on the ground and through the air makes a lot of sense — he’ll be the first runner since Week 1 to truly challenge their front. Assuming a close game, we could be looking at a good game from Barkley, and you’ll start Smith even with lower expectations, but I’d be at least a little cautious about Hurts. I think Stafford has a better game than Hurts for Fantasy.
- MUST-START: Davante Adams, Kyren Williams, Saquon Barkley
- START: Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts (low-end start), DeVonta Smith (No. 2 WR), Rams DST
- FLEX: Dontayvion Wicks (very low-end PPR flex)
- SIT: Blake Corum, Tyler Higbee (desperation TE), Konata Mumpfield, Makai Lemon, Eagles DST (desperation start)
Joe Burrow’s facing a zone-heavy defense with a challenging pass rush for the second consecutive Sunday. While he has experience against many of these Steelers players, he’ll have to deal with a new coverage scheme. These Steelers tend to lean into zone coverage on early downs and then split man-to-man and zone coverage on third downs. It also appears the Steelers will blitz heavily when needed, just as they did last week while trailing at Foxboro (48% blitz rate, 52% pass rush pressure rate). The zone-heavy coverage should give Tee Higgins a shot at a stat line similar to what we saw last week, though I wish he had a little more quickness to his game. And with Andrei Iosivas sidelined, figure the Bengals feature more two-TE formations, putting Mike Gesicki back in play as a desperation Fantasy tight end.
Cincinnati’s defense has come out hot, but they’re doing it by blitzing at the lowest rate in the league. That hasn’t slowed their sack production — four sacks in each of two games — with a strong 42% pass-rush pressure rate last week against the Texans and their depleted O-line. Pittsburgh is slightly above league average in pass rush pressure rate allowed, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Bengals rattle Aaron Rodgers quite a bit. As for run defense, the Bengals are way better than they were last year, holding opponents to 2.9 yards per rush and a super-low 22.2% five-yard rush rate with zero explosive runs allowed (they are better against gap runs than zone runs, which favors the Steelers a little bit). Hard to feel good about any Steelers players given the way this matchup looks, but Jaylen Warren would be the best start of the bunch, assuming Rico Dowdle is sidelined, even if he grinds his way to numbers.
It looks like Jaylen Wright has a chance to play this week as the Dolphins’ run game begins life without De’Von Achane. Previously, we’ve seen Wright taking the lead in playing time ahead of Ollie Gordon, though in Week 18 last season it was very narrow. Together they can form a thunder and lightning combination, but we’re talking about a Dolphins offense that, through three weeks has played all but 26 snaps down by at least seven points with just two total snaps inside the 5. I wouldn’t feel good starting either back, but if I had to take one it would be Wright under the assumption that he’ll handle more hurry-up offense work over Gordon. What Achane’s absence really means is more work on Malik Willis’ plate — he should run a little more and use the quick-game as a replacement for Achane’s runs. That’s where Malik Washington comes into play as a short-area target who can catch a quick throw and get some decent yardage. He leads the Dolphins with a 45.5% target per route run rate on throws inside of two seconds, albeit on a very small sample size (Caleb Douglas and Greg Dulcich are next up in target/route rate, though Dulcich is the only one with a yard per route run rate under a sorry 1.0).
START: Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison (as long as Justin Jefferson is out), Vikings DST
SIT: Kyler Murray, Malik Willis, Malik Washington (desperate PPR flex), Jaylen Wright, Caleb Douglas, T.J. Hockenson, Chris Bell, Greg Dulcich, Ollie Gordon, Jauan Jennings, Dolphins DST
There aren’t enough reasons to call Ashton Jeanty an outright sit in Fantasy, but a lot of the troubling metrics we saw from him last year haven’t gone away this year. Jeanty is still averaging well below a yard before contact per rush and is still running inefficiently overall with a grand total of 20.6 Fantasy points from solely his running numbers. This time around we can’t put it on his offensive line either because backup Mike Washington Jr. is averaging a ferocious 6.8 yards per rush and 2.73 yards before contact with a much higher explosive rush rate than Jeanty. There hasn’t been evidence yet of a pivot in Washington’s playing time — he’s been around a 20% snap share over the first three weeks — but the time may come when Las Vegas opts for the hotter hand to see more playing time. If they’re trailing this week then Jeanty will keep playing a high snap share, and that’s why you start him, even if with mild expectations against a hyper-aggressive Chiefs defense.
MUST-START: Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker III, Brock Bowers
START: Ashton Jeanty (No. 2 RB), Rashee Rice (No. 2 WR), Travis Kelce, Chiefs DST
SIT: Kirk Cousins, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Tyquan Thornton, Mike Washington Jr. (stash), Raiders DST
Los Angeles’ offense is a big-time mess: Their offensive line continues to struggle with consistency, especially in pass protection, multiple receivers are making too many mistakes, Justin Herbert has not done a great job reading coverages, and the run game has evolved into a three-headed crew where only one guy is making plays. Not exactly the best time to take on Seattle’s suffocating defense, though last week the champs were upended by a plucky Commanders squad that schemed their way to some good gains plus had a playmaking receiver come through on a big-time touchdown. Los Angeles’ offense has tried to be creative, and as recently as last week they had Ladd McConkey winning on pass plays against a similar kind of scheme that the Seahawks run, but McConkey also drew many double teams while Quentin Johnston, Tre Harris and Oronde Gadsden II made a bunch of mistakes. A huge target commitment to McConkey is his only path to good Fantasy numbers, and the Chargers have been hesitant to do that since his Week 1 injury. I would lower expectations for McConkey, avoid the other pass catchers, and hope that somehow Omarion Hampton can bludgeon his way into the end zone on a goal line carry. If there’s a Charger to be remotely excited about is Keaton Mitchell, who’s small but so shifty and so fast. At some point, the Chargers will have no choice but to involve him more.
MUST-START: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
START: Ladd McConkey (No. 2 WR), Omarion Hampton (low-end No. 2 RB), Seahawks DST
FLEX: Jadarian Price (low-end flex)
SIT: Sam Darnold, Justin Herbert, Quentin Johnston, Cooper Kupp, Tre Harris, Keaton Mitchell (desperation PPR RB and must-stash), AJ Barner, Emanuel Wilson, Chargers DST
Expect the Broncos to test the 49ers offensive line, whether or not Trent Williams plays (Williams has a shoulder injury). That means lots of blitzing, which they’ve naturally done in Weeks 1 and 3 when they were trailing. Denver’s 50% pass rush pressure rate without blitzing last week is very encouraging and should challenge Brock Purdy to make downfield throws, especially if he doesn’t have Mike Evans. The game plan for the 49ers could be to run more and attack a vulnerable Broncos run defense, then use play action to hit underneath targets like George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. They’ll need to be successful because Denver’s offense got rolling last week and without a good 49ers pass rush can be just as good this week.
- MUST-START: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle
- START: Brock Purdy, Jaylen Waddle, Broncos DST, 49ers DST (low-end start)
Young’s kryptonite last week (and every week) was pass rush pressure — the Browns got a 54% pass rush pressure rate when they didn’t blitz. Not having Jalen Coker as an easy outlet was noticeable as Young frequently panicked when pressured; some downfield throws connected but most of his passes didn’t as evidenced by his 44% completion rate and 5.0 yards per attempt averages. It appears the Panthers offensive line, which looked good in Weeks 1 and 2 started to crack in Week 3, and losing guard Damien Lewis for Week 4 will absolutely sting in protection. Detroit’s going to do the same thing they did against Josh Allen and Geno Smith and that’s bring pressure of their own, and like the Browns they’re pretty good at affecting the quarterback with just four rushers (45% pass rush pressure rate or more without blitzing in each of its past two). If there’s a plus it’s that Detroit has been dreadful against tight ends: five different tight ends have scored at least 10 half-PPR points through three Lions games. It’s a green light for Darren Waller, who morphed into a safety valve for Young late last week, to be added into lineups; I would be a tad more nervous about Tetairoa McMillan, who normally doesn’t see a high target share against single-high coverages (like last week), and the Lions lean that way whether they play zone or man.
The Panthers continue to play among the highest rates of zone/Cover-3 coverage in the league. When faced with that coverage this year Jared Goff has sent a slew of targets to, unsurprisingly, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs, neither of whom have been amazing yardage-wise because of the nature of the coverage to not allow big plays. Same thing for Sam LaPorta, but the guy it’s been the worst for is Jameson Williams. Of the four Lions pass-catchers, Williams has the lowest target per route run rate (14%) and yards per route run rate (0.86); by comparison both St. Brown and LaPorta have over 1.65 yards per route run, nearly double Williams’ number. Given his 13.2 average depth of target it seems as if the Lions are content having Williams take the top off of defenses to allow for easy underneath throws. That’s exactly what’s supposed to happen against single-high zone coverage like what the Panthers play. It makes me nervous to call Williams anything more than a low-end flex.
- MUST-START: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown,
- START: Jared Goff, Chuba Hubbard, Tetairoa McMillan (low-end No. 2 WR), Sam LaPorta, Darren Waller (low-end start), Lions DST (borderline start)
- FLEX: Jameson Williams
- SIT: Bryce Young (borderline start), Brycen Tremayne, Tommy Tremble, Panthers DST
You probably already knew that Chris Olave draws the most targets from Tyler Shough regardless of situation, but against zone coverage this year the target per route run rate of New Orleans’ top two running backs is actually higher than what Olave gets. Barely — 30.5% to 27.1% I bring this up because the Falcons have been a zone-leaning defense all year and figure to stick with it against the Saints. The Falcons have also had one of the most impressive, underrated defensive lines through three weeks, stifling opposing run games. Already a pass-heavy offense, look for the Saints to stick with shorter throws to the running backs and tight ends, which means a good dose of work for Juwan Johnson and perhaps a turn-back-the-clock game for Alvin Kamara, who frankly flashed lots of quick burst last week and can still be a solid contributor in the pass game if given the chance.
- MUST-START: Bijan Robinson, Chris Olave, Drake London
- START: Tyler Shough, Juwan Johnson
- FLEX: Devaughn Vele, Alvin Kamara
- SIT: Michael Penix Jr., Kyle Pitts, Noah Fant, Kendre Miller, Saints DST, Falcons DST
