The Dodgers proceed to dominate the offseason, most lately including an enormous arm to associate with their large bat (and eventual large arm himself) Shohei Ohtani, however there are many different trades and signings nonetheless to return. Would not it’s nice if there was a spot you would go for quick-hitting Fantasy Baseball evaluation on all the most important strikes?
Properly, there may be, and it is proper right here. Via the lengthy, darkish winter, you possibly can depend on the Offseason Tracker to maintain the embers of anticipation burning, proper as much as the purpose the place pitchers and catchers are reporting and Draft Prep season begins anew.
This is what to make of what is occurred up to now …
The deal is contingent on Glasnow signing an extension with the Dodgers, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN, however that is anticipated within the coming days. Pitch for pitch, Glasnow is pretty much as good as any starter in baseball, his 2.75 xFIP rating first amongst these with at the least 120 innings and his 12.2 Okay/9 rating second. However there is a cause I exploit 120 innings as the edge, and that is as a result of the 30-year-old simply set a profession excessive with that quantity in 2023. More often than not he missed final yr was attributable to an indirect damage, however he has a historical past of elbow troubles, together with Tommy John surgical procedure in 2021. Pitching for the Dodgers will solely additional guarantee he is an ace for the time that he is wholesome — such that I am prepared to rank him in my high 10 — nevertheless it’s an upset if he makes even 25 begins.
As for the Rays, they’ve perfected the artwork of spinning off a soon-to-be free agent for an up-and-comer who seems to be almost pretty much as good, if not higher. That they thought-about Ryan Pepiot (together with platoon bat Jonny Deluca) to be an appropriate return for a pitcher of Glasnow’s caliber speaks effectively of his upside. I used to be already keen on the right-hander, having seen him flip his greatest weak spot into a real power in 2023. Pepiot went from averaging 4.4 BB/9 between the majors and minors in 2022 to 1.4 BB/9 only a yr later, and also you see what it did for his different numbers.
Clearly, the Rays have been impressed, and given their fame for maxmizing pitcher outcomes, this commerce does much more for Pepiot’s Fantasy worth than Glasnow’s. His one problem throughout his trial final yr was residence runs, and Tropicana Subject is healthier than Dodger Stadium for stopping these. Greater than something, although, Pepiot is probably going a rotation mainstay for the Rays whereas the Dodgers might need introduced in different arms to compete with him. He is RP-only in CBS Sports activities leagues to start the yr, however he is value concentrating on within the middle-to-late rounds of each Fantasy draft.
As Flaherty battled accidents within the years following his fourth-place Cy Younger end in 2019, when he emerged as a Fantasy ace, there was cause to hope he might return to that type if he might simply maintain it collectively lengthy sufficient. Properly, he principally did in 2023, and … yikes. A yr of struggles break up between the Cardinals and Orioles left him to signal a one-year cope with the Tigers, and whereas there are few higher locations to pitch than Detroit, venue hasn’t been Flaherty’s problem. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press suggests that pitching coach Chris Fetter and assistant Robin Lund have already got a plan to repair him — and it is true Flaherty’s velocity has held fairly regular all through his accidents — however I am going to must see actual outcomes this spring earlier than I consider investing draft capital in him.
Jung Hoo Lee indicators with Giants
2023 KBO: .318 BA (330 AB), 6 HR, 6 SB, .860 OPS, 49 BB, 23 Okay
Among the many stars popping out of East Asia this offseason, Lee ranks a distant second to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, however he is the most important bat regardless that he does not meet the fashionable conventions of a “large bat.” By that, I imply he is probably not an influence hitter, which is reassuring in a manner since energy does not all the time translate from Japan and Korea. Lee is from the latter, the place we have not seen as many success tales as from the previous, however he is a profession .340 hitter with about twice as many walks as strikeouts over the previous three years. The Luis Arraez path leaves little margin for error in Fantasy, which means something in need of a .300 batting common may have restricted enchantment, however Lee ought to at the least be of use in factors leagues, notably if he bats leadoff.
The excellent news is Lugo signed with a crew that will not be in the least tempted to shift him again to the bullpen. The dangerous information is that crew is the Royals, who will not assist him to win a lot. After all, he received solely eight instances this previous yr with the Padres and was nonetheless fairly viable for Fantasy, proving that his deep arsenal of pitches (with a 3,200 rpm curveball being the spotlight) might work simply as effectively over six-inning stretches. His plus management and above-average ground-ball fee ought to hold his ERA respectable, notably with the place he’ll now be pitching his residence video games, which ought to guarantee he’ll be barely higher than a streaming choice in 12-team leagues. However this vacation spot possible prevents him from being a stylish sleeper.
You’ll have thought you had seen the final of Will Smith as a better, however you were not relying on him signing with the Royals, one of many few groups and not using a favourite to shut or perhaps a viable candidate. “Ending video games is certainly why I feel Will was so drawn to us, and there is alternative right here to do this,” GM J.J. Picollo stated of the signing. After all, Smith hasn’t truly pitched on the caliber of a better since a two-year stint with San Francisco that led to 2019. He is susceptible to the lengthy ball and has seen his strikeouts dwindle the previous couple years. He provides some readability to a bullpen with none, but when issues go too effectively, he’ll simply get traded out of the nearer function, in all chance. Deal with him as a bottom-of-the-barrel supply of saves.
Shohei Ohtani indicators with Dodgers
Six years in the past, Shohei Ohtani was coming to Los Angeles. Now, he will … Los Angeles, this time minus the Anaheim, agreeing Saturday to a 10-year, $700 million cope with the Dodgers. As is usually the case for the most important free brokers, the implications of this signing are higher for actual life than for Fantasy. Gamers this good aren’t topic to a task change with a brand new crew, and their expertise would usually translate anyplace. But when we have been to rank the most effective locations for Ohtani’s Fantasy worth, the Dodgers would have been close to the highest of the record. For extra on his new crew and what issues much more for Ohtani’s 2024 worth, take a look at Scott White’s full-length article.
O’Neill confirmed the extent of his upside in 2021, when he hit .286 with 34 homers, 15 steals and a .912 OPS, however he is been a bust since then. Accidents have possible performed a component — he is gone on the IL with shoulder, hamstring, again and foot accidents throughout that point — however that is hardly trigger for reassurance and presumably a consequence of his stout and muscular construct. For as sturdy as he’s, he hasn’t replicated the exit velocities from that 2021 season, whether or not we’re speaking averge or max. Fenway Park can have a transformative impact on hitters, which provides O’Neill some late-round what-if enchantment, however the glut of outfielders in Boston possible additionally provides him a brief leash. Presumably, Ceddanne Rafaela begins the yr within the minors now, with Wilyer Abreu getting the majority of the enjoying time in proper.
Whereas this transfer is clearly good for Candelario’s Fantasy worth, him being a prolific doubles hitter going to the majors’ most homer-friendly park, it is a main annoyance to anybody who’s invested within the Reds’ youth motion. Their infield was already overloaded after graduating Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte to the majors final yr. If you happen to counted 5 names there, you counted accurately, and that is earlier than factoring in holdover Jonathan India. Just one, Steer, has proven the power to play the outfield, however until he strikes there completely, with Encarnacion-Strand changing into a full-time DH, there wasn’t a street map for enjoying all six each day. Add Candelario, and whew, what a large number.
Perhaps a few these infielders change into commerce bait for Dylan Stop or another person, but when not, I would be nervous in regards to the enjoying time for India, Encarnacion-Strand, Steer and Marte, in that order. And even when India and Steer are traded, their energy might not translate so effectively to a different ballpark. Form of seems like there’s one other shoe but to drop, wherein case I am reluctant to decide to any main strikes within the rankings, however these 4 are in a precarious spot proper now. As for Candelario, Statcast estimates he would have had 30 residence runs if he performed each sport at Nice American Ball Park final yr. He will not play each sport there, in fact, however a potential 25-homer consequence is sufficient for me to maneuver him previous Alec Bohm at an already loaded third base.
There are not any venues extra pitcher-friendly than Comerica Park, which Rodriguez is now departing, however Chase Subject is nearer than you suppose. His residence/away splits have been just about similar final yr anyway. The supporting solid improves with this deal, however then once more, you possibly can’t count on him to ship a lot better than the 13-9 file he had in 2023. Early within the yr, it regarded like one thing might need clicked for Rodriguez — he was throwing a bit more durable and utilizing his cutter extra — however then after he missed all of June with a ruptured finger pulley, it was enterprise as common with a 4.24 ERA over his closing 15 begins. He’ll eat some innings and pile up high quality begins for the Diamondbacks, however he is nonetheless principally a back-end starter for Fantasy — greater than a streamer, however not by a lot.
It is clear now that San Diego wasn’t an incredible match for Soto. He is a profession .231 hitter with a .783 OPS there, together with .240 and .827 in what was his one full season with the Padres. Of his 35 homers in 2023, 23 got here on the street, the place he hit a extra Soto-like .307 with a 1.026 OPS. The query is how a lot better he’ll get at Yankee Stadium, as a result of he will get higher — the splits inform us that a lot. For a whole breakdown, together with what this deal means for Michael King and the Padres, take a look at Scott White’s full-length article.
GM Mike Elias has already confirmed that Kimbrel will function the Orioles nearer in 2024, calling him “among the best closers in baseball historical past,” and the 35-year-old makes for a pleasant stopgap measure with Felix Bautista anticipated to spend all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgical procedure. The Orioles appeared like they already had a fairly good nearer different in Yennier Cano, however he isn’t as a lot of a bat-misser and was fairly shaky when he stepped into the function late final August.
Cano’s Fantasy worth plummets with this signing, however the Orioles would possible fall again on him if Kimbrel implodes, which is not an insane thought given his inconsistencies over the previous few years. His stuff continues to be closer-caliber, however there are occasions when his location breaks down, and the outcomes might be ugly, as occurred within the NLCS final yr. Nonetheless, given the knowledge of his function, the power of his supporting solid, and the chance of an enormous strikeout complete, Kimbrel figures to be one of many high 15 relievers off the board in 2024.
This reads just like the Pink Sox ridding themselves of a headache since not one of the three pitchers they bought again is a notable title in prospect circles, however Verdugo is a participant of some consequence in Fantasy. Going to Yankee Stadium is all the time a very good factor for a left-handed hitter, however perhaps much less for him since he tends to hit balls extra on the bottom and up the center. His xHR at Yankee Stadium the previous two years is 32 vs. the 24 he truly hit, however the complete disparity is from 2022 (it was truly destructive in 2023). It is cause to hope for nearer to twenty homers than 15 (not that he is ever fairly achieved that lesser mark) and places Verdugo in consideration to be one of the highest 40 outfielders drafted in 2024
Fedde was a fairly good prospect again within the day, however he bought sufficient possibilities for the Nationals from 2017 by 2022 that it hardly appears related now. What’s related is how he lit up the Korean league in his one yr there, going 20-6 with a 2.00 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 10.4 Okay/9 to win the league’s equal of each Cy Younger and MVP. It is a lesser league, in fact, nevertheless it’s the identical one the place Merrill Kelly revitalized his profession with numbers that weren’t almost as spectacular as Fedde’s.
It might be that the league was extra a backdrop to showcase Fedde’s modifications fairly than instill them. He spent final offseason on the PUSH Efficiency exercise facility remaking each his mechanics and arsenal, including a sweeper and split-change that White Sox pitching advisor Brian Bannister compared to Logan Webb’s. Greater than something, Webb stands out for his 62.1 p.c ground-ball fee, tops amongst qualifiers final yr. Fedde’s fee in Korea was 70 p.c. It is anyone’s guess how these modifications will translate to the majors, however make no mistake: they’re appreciable modifications. And given the precedent of pitchers like Kelly, whose time abroad was a complete game-changer, I would be shock if Fedde lasted into the late rounds on Draft Day.
The Braves additionally acquired left-hander Marco Gonzales (later flipped to the Pirates) and first baseman Evan White in what was principally a wage dump for the Mariners, who acquired right-hander Jackson Kowar and pitching prospect Cole Phillips within the deal. The large title right here, although, is Kelenic, who was considered one of many high prospects in baseball only a couple years in the past. His inventory is clearly down after three years struggling to make contact on the big-league degree, however the 2023 model was the most effective we have seen up to now — one who wasn’t an computerized out towards left-handers and sliders.
Becoming a member of the Braves lineup takes some stress off, and it is too early to say the 24-year-old is a completed product. Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has already confirmed that the Braves plan to play Kelenic in left subsequent yr, presumably in a platoon with Vaughn Grissom. The deal might renew curiosity in Kelenic as a late-round flier in five-outfielder leagues, although the burnout the Mariners skilled with him is shared by many Fantasy Baseballers.
Jackson Chourio indicators long-term deal
Chourio in fact does not change groups together with his eight-year, $82 million cope with the Brewers, nevertheless it’s no much less value mentioning right here for the influence it has on his 2024 worth. The 19-year-old (he’ll flip 20 earlier than opening day) is now a close to shoo-in to make the crew out of spring coaching. There are not any service time ramifications to contemplate, and if he isn’t with the Brewers from the beginning of his rookie season, no quantity of {hardware} he wins will rating the crew further draft picks.
It is a large leap for a participant his age and sure will not come with out rising pains, however his strikeout fee dropped from 26.9 p.c in 2022 to 17.8 p.c in 2023 whilst he ascended to the higher minors for the primary time. His energy/velocity combo provides him celebrity potential, and with outfield in a weakened state, it isn’t loopy to treat Chourio as a top-20 choice there instantly
Severino remained in our good graces whilst he threw a mixed 18 innings from 2019 by 2021, and that persistence gave the impression to be rewarded when he delivered a 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 9.9 Okay/9 throughout 102 innings in 2022. However boy was 2023 a special story, the type of out-and-out catastrophe that begs the query “why even hassle?” Are the Mets the group to alter our minds? Actually, they are not identified for performing magic tips, however they’re prepared to pay the man $13 million for a yr. And a deeper dive reveals that the traits of Severino’s pitches — from the speed to the spin fee to the motion — did not truly change that a lot. He is not more than a late-round flier at this level, however one who retains intriguing upside.
Sonny Grey indicators with Cardinals
The Cardinals proceed their rotation overhaul with one of many greatest prizes on the free agent market, AL Cy Younger runner-up Sonny Grey. After all, in Fantasy, Grey has lengthy been considered second-tier, his occasional flashes of brilliance too typically undermined by damage and inconsistency. Then once more, he was fairly secure throughout his two-year stint with the Twins, compiling a 2.90 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and eight.9 Okay/9. He led all qualifiers with a 2.83 FIP in 2023 and in addition unveiled a brand new sweeper that Eno Sarris of The Athletic considers a game-changer. Nonetheless, between his previous fake-outs, his so-so strikeout fee, and the truth that 2023 represented his first time crossing the 180-inning threshold since 2015, you are higher off pondering of Grey as a rotation stabilizer than a real standout in Fantasy, concentrating on him as your No. 3 or 4 in 12-team leagues.
Maeda’s excessive ERA and low innings complete will possible make him an afterthought in most Fantasy drafts, however there’s upside for the Tigers to dream on. His 10.9 Okay/9 ranked twelfth amongst pitchers with at the least 100 innings, which is an effective place to begin when speaking upside, and his 12.8 p.c swinging-strike fee ranked twenty third. His penchant for arduous contract did yield some troubles with the lengthy ball, however transferring to the venue that Statcast charges lifeless final for residence runs over the previous three years ought to assist to mitigate that. Greater than something, it is well being that can decide Maeda’s destiny in 2024, and with him turning 36, there shall be some bumps alongside these strains. However for a reminder of how good it may be, he had a nine-start stretch after getting back from a triceps damage final June wherein he put collectively a 2.36 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 11.2 Okay/9.
T-Cell Park was the only worst venue for right-handed hitters final yr, in response to Statcast, so at first look, this is able to appear to be an improve for the four-time 30-homer man. However his energy manufacturing was higher at residence than on the street the previous two years, and Chase Subject truly charges worse for residence runs particularly. No, Suarez’s points have much less to do together with his environment than his profile. A strikeout fee over 30 p.c principally condemns him to a low batting common, and his fly-ball and pull tendencies, whereas permitting for large residence run totals at instances, solely make it worse. He is finest used as a nook infielder in Rotisserie leagues. His arrival at third base does shut one potential path to at-bats for prospect Jordan Lawlar, however the 21-year-old’s future is probably going at shortstop anyway.
Usually, the signing of a center reliever — even one among Lopez’s ilk — would not benefit a point out right here, however phrase is that the Braves plan to stretch him out as a starter this spring. It is unclear whether or not it is a contingency measure or Plan A for Lopez — the remainder of the Braves’ offseason maneuvering might finally decide which — nevertheless it’s a noteworthy growth for a pitcher who hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2020. The desire-be 30-year-old struggled in his years as a starter earlier than discovering success in aid, gaining a pair ticks on his fastball whereas disposing of his changeup and curveball. The Braves should see some untapped potential right here, although, and if he certainly holds down a rotation spot for them, the win potential alone would make him a possible Fantasy asset.
Lynn has had a pleasant profession and goes again to the place it began in St. Louis. Sadly, he is clearly on the draw back of it now, having struggled to get his ERA beneath 6.00 final yr. A transfer to the Dodgers on the commerce deadline did not do a lot to enhance his standing, and if they cannot straighten him out with all they’ve accomplished to reclaim different veteran pitchers, then it is arduous to think about the Cardinals will. Lynn can nonetheless ship a good strikeout complete once in a while, however given how prone he was to blowups in 2023, it’s best to consider him as extra of a danger/reward streamer than a staple on your Fantasy workers in 2024.
This seven-year deal ensures the established order for a participant who, frankly, might have accomplished with a change. Nola is coming off his second yr in three with an ERA round 4.50, and a brand new crew might need supplied extra cause for optimism in 2024. After all, there are different causes to consider he might bounce again. A have a look at the sport log reveals no scarcity of sensible begins — the sort solely accessible to aces, kind of — and he confirmed enchancment within the postseason, apparently making a mechanical adjustment to assist him find on the sides of the plate higher. We all know now his residence runs points are recurring, although, which ought to low cost him barely on Draft Day regardless of his ace potential.
