On September 17, the brand new European Fee below re-elected President Ursula von der Leyen was introduced in Brussels, opening a brand new chapter that may form the subsequent 5 years of the European Union. This announcement got here not lengthy after the Draghi report was revealed earlier this September to deal with how the EU can enhance its inner insurance policies, additionally that includes China and the USA as relevant benchmarks.
Moreover, the announcement got here merely a number of days earlier than now-confirmed Commerce Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis met Chinese language Commerce Minister Wang Wentao to debate the recent subject of the EU’s electrical automobile (EV) tariffs. The tariffs, which have been provisionally utilized on Chinese language EV makers since July 5, have been on the heart of China-EU relations for a while, and represent one of many greatest challenges to commerce and diplomatic cooperation between the 2 events.
The New Power Transition and the EV Query
Teresa Ribera Rodríguez can be taking on the brand new formidable competition and Green Deal portfolio. She’s anticipated to observe the formidable strains traced within the Draghi report. The report recognized three areas the place the EU can reignite its sustainable progress: closing the innovation hole with the USA and China in superior applied sciences, making a joint plan for decarbonization and competitiveness, and lowering dependencies.
In Ribera’s first interview as commissioner, she admitted that her greatest problem can be to foster an EU-wide understanding that nationwide and native pursuits have a spot inside broader EU pursuits. To Ribera, the only market will should be the brand new focus of the EU competitors on the world stage, not the only states. Broadening the main target to the interior market would enable corporations to compete at a worldwide scale and observe the trail traced by Draghi. She can be against a trade war within the EV sector with China, telling the Monetary Occasions: “We have to determine the very best instruments for the way we are able to develop the automotive trade in Europe however are additionally efficient by way of avoiding this commerce struggle.”
Wang Wentao simply spent every week visiting a number of EU states to barter a method out of the tariffs. Whereas he made some headway in Germany with Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, who favors a political resolution much like what Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez mentioned in Beijing when calling for avoiding an all-out commerce struggle, Wang had much less success in Italy, as Italian Minister of International Affairs Antonio Tajani didn’t again a political resolution. The EU appears prone to go forward with the tariffs, as declared by Dombrovski after his private assembly with Wang.
Past EVs, other appointed commissioners have agendas able to equally shaping the EU’s broader China coverage.
A Robust New International and Safety Coverage Chief
Former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, the newly designated vice president and high representative for foreign and security policy, may not be an enemy of Beijing, however she was placed on a wanted list by Vladimir Putin, a “dear friend” of China’s chief Xi Jinping, in the beginning of 2024. She appears to be tougher than Borrell in her stance towards China, and has a monitor report of turbulent relations with Beijing.
In an interview given whereas she was the chief of the opposition in Estonia in 2020, Kallas drew sharp and controversial parallels between the scenario in Xinjiang and the Holocaust. She referred to as for a extra strong EU coverage towards China, urging for the latter to be held to the identical human rights requirements as Russia. She additionally advocated for the widespread adoption of guidelines that might restrict the affect of Chinese language corporations within the EU.
In 2021, when she was prime minister, Kallas supported a public letter signed by over 70 researchers, journalists and establishments warning in opposition to Chinese language affect in Estonia. In the identical 12 months, she additionally urged European and U.S. leaders to create a greater infrastructure undertaking capable of challenging the Belt and Highway Initiative (BRI), however with out the issues of Chinese language affect.
Her name to motion was not taken effectively by Chinese state media. Immediately addressing Kallas, Chinese language state media reminded her that Estonia had signed a memorandum on the BRI again in 2017, and explicitly said that if Estonia didn’t rethink its “reckless diplomatic technique, it should backfire and find yourself hurting itself.”
Kallas was supportive of a broader EU China coverage fairly than the China-CEE (Central and Japanese Europe) mechanism, which Estonia quit in 2022. Nevertheless, in a 2022 interview on the Russia-Ukraine battle, she declared that “China is a crucial actor, however given the dimensions of the battle with Russia, we are able to’t make China our adversary. We will’t afford that.”
Industrial Technique
One other attention-grabbing determine is Stéphane Séjourné, who would be the newly appointed executive vice-president for prosperity and industrial strategy. In contrast with Kallas, he has adopted a extra open perspective to China.
Séjourné met Premier Li Qiang in Beijing in April 2024 because the French international minister, within the context of the sixtieth anniversary of the institution of the diplomatic relations between France and China. In his go to, he requested that China send a clear message to Moscow over the Russia-Ukraine struggle, and declared that each Europe and China are open markets for funding. He additional assured his Chinese language counterparts that President Emmanuel Macron’s strategic autonomy wouldn’t sign any protectionist closure on the EU facet.
But, he’s not solely lenient. Earlier this 12 months, Séjourné additionally confirmed his distaste for China’s unilateral change to the aviation route M503, which he thought-about a menace to the established order within the Taiwan Strait. His place gained him help from the Taiwanese minister of international affairs, who openly thanked him, and the information was additionally reported by Taiwanese media.
Again in 2021, throughout his time period as member of the European Parliament with Renew Europe, Séjourné also declared he wouldn’t vote for the now frozen EU-China Complete Settlement on Funding due to the scenario in Xinjiang. In an article revealed the identical 12 months, he demanded EU leaders to make use of their persuasion energy to cease the internment camps and uphold human rights in China, and to demand measures to cease compelled labor within the nation. Nevertheless, Séjourné is not going to be accountable for commerce relations by himself.
Financial Safety: The ‘De-risking’ Commissioner
Lastly there’s Maroš Šefčovič, a Slovakian diplomat, who was particularly tasked by von der Leyen with managing the tough strategy of “de-risking, not decoupling” with China. Šefčovič engaged with China as the vice president for the European Green Deal. Most just lately, he attended the Fifth EU-China High Level Environment and Climate Dialogue with Chinese language Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, in Brussels in July 2024. These talks have been notably held within the midst of the EV chaos.
In 2023, Šefčovič declared that, relating to EV battery manufacturing, “Made in Europe” is necessary. He argued that manufacturing ought to be pushed by the willingness to maintain emissions down, but additionally equally dedicated to treating staff pretty, as an alternative of creating it “some kind of race to the bottom where price is the only criterion.” He additional said that the “best, cleanest, and safest cars in the world have been always produced in Europe,” including, “I imagine it will proceed to be so.”
It should even be remembered that Šefčovič, who’s a veteran European Fee official and was additionally the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, was already a consultant in 2019, when China-EU relations have been of a really totally different nature. For example, he was the pinnacle of the EU delegation on the 2019 Belt and RoadForum, the place he shared some more nuanced opinions over a typical imaginative and prescient for connectivity primarily based on sustainability, and mitigating world challenges by a rules-based worldwide order.
These protagonists of the EU’s current “change of guard” might want to handle the tough EU China coverage inherited from von der Leyen’s first time period. Attempting to stability the special status of China as a “associate, a competitor and a systemic rival” has by no means been tougher amid the problem of mixing EU pursuits with broader ambitions.
Moreover, the divided opinions of many EU leaders contribute to a sense of uncertainty on whether or not the EU’s broader China coverage will be capable of placate variations or will turn out to be too fragmented to be managed constantly. Fragmentation is very regarding in mild of the EU’s ambition globally, as indicated by the pathway specified by the Draghi report. If member states and commissioners can not stability broader pursuits, the EU’s actions will fall in need of boosting the interior market’s anticipated world competitiveness.
Whereas a complete EU technique will certainly emerge later in von der Leyen’s second time period, early indicators of discord are already obvious. The deferral of the vote on last EV tariffs underscores how, when nationwide pursuits take priority, the much-needed “European understanding” over priorities and customary targets is prone to stay extra of an aspiration than a actuality.
