The 2025-26 EFL Cup, also known as the Carabao Cup, moves into the semifinal round on Tuesday, Jan. 13 with Newcastle United facing Manchester City. Newcastle advanced to the semifinal round after beating Fulham 2-1 in the quarterfinal, while Manchester City rolled past Brentford 2-0. The Magpies are sixth in the EPL table this season but are just three points off from a top-4 spot while Man City are six points behind league leaders Arsenal, so the EFL Cup might be both club’s best chance at a trophy this season.
Kickoff from St. James’ Park in Newcastle is set for 3 p.m. ET. Soccer fans and bettors can stream the match on Paramount+. Manchester City are +145 favorites (wager $100 to win $145) at DraftKings Sportsbook in the latest Newcastle vs. Manchester City odds and the hosts are +160 underdogs (wager $100 to win $160). A draw is priced at +245 and the total is 3.5 (Over +135, Under -175). Before you make any wagers on Newcastle vs. Man City in the first leg of this EFL Cup semifinal match, you need to see what SportsLine soccer expert Martin Green is locking in for his best bets.
After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Last year, Green was profitable in multiple areas on his soccer betting picks, including Euro qualifying (+6.30 units), EFL Cup (+4.47), FA Cup (+3.07) and Champions League (+3.05), among others. Anyone who follows him could be way up.
Here are Green’s best bets and analysis for Newcastle vs. Manchester City on Tuesday, Jan. 13.
Newcastle United vs. Manchester City best bets
- Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals (-118): 1u
- Newcastle draw no bet (+130): 0.5u
Newcastle will host Manchester City at St. James’ Park for the first leg of their EFL Cup semifinal clash on Tuesday. The Magpies are the reigning champions after beating Liverpool 2-1 in the EFL Cup final last year. That famous victory ended Newcastle’s 56-year trophy drought, and the players are now determined to secure more silverware. They’ve already beaten Bradford City, Tottenham, and Fulham in the EFL Cup this season, but they now face their sternest challenge.
Man City are on a 12-game unbeaten streak and they thrashed Exeter City 10-1 in the FA Cup third round on Saturday. Manager Pep Guardiola rested some key players for that game, including Phil Foden and Gianluigi Donnarumma. They can now return to the starting XI and they’ll be fresh for this eagerly anticipated EFL Cup semifinal showdown.
Barnes leads Newcastle’s resurgence
Newcastle have moved up to sixth in the Premier League table after winning their last three league games. The Magpies’ resurgence began with a 3-1 away win against Burnley on Dec. 30, and they then beat Crystal Palace 2-0 at St. James’ Park. Eddie Howe’s men battled to a 4-3 victory over Leeds last weekend, courtesy of a last-gasp goal from winger Harvey Barnes. He also played a starring role in Newcastle’s FA Cup game against Bournemouth on Saturday.
Barnes scored twice in that game, taking his tally to four goals in his last two appearances. It finished 3-3 after extra time, but Newcastle won the subsequent penalty shootout. The Magpies are 17 points behind Premier League leaders Arsenal, so they have no chance of winning the league. They will naturally try to secure a top-4 finish, which would earn them a place in next season’s Champions League but they will mainly focus their efforts on winning another cup competition.
Fatigue could be an issue, as Newcastle played 120 minutes against Bournemouth at the weekend. However, key players like Bruno Guimarães, Joelinton, Lewis Hall and Anthony Gordon started on the bench, so they’ll be in decent physical shape. It will be hard for Newcastle to stop this rampant Man City attack from scoring, but they look capable of causing problems for City’s struggling defense. Barnes may be exhausted from his exploits against Bournemouth, but Gordon is improving and Yoane Wissa offers them another dimension in attack.
Defensive issues remain for Man City
Man City are still firmly in the Premier League title race, despite drawing their last three league games. They’re six points behind Arsenal, with 17 games to play. However, the sportsbooks only give them a slim chance of success. Most make Arsenal the -500 or -400 favorites, while City are priced at +400 at several sportsbooks.
As such, it might make sense for Man City to take the EFL Cup seriously. They failed to win silverware last season, making it their first season without a trophy since 2016/17. Guardiola will be determined to avoid going two seasons in a row without winning anything, as that has never previously happened during his managerial career. He will have one eye on Man City’s Premier League game against Manchester United on Saturday, but he should still field a strong starting XI for this match at St. James’ Park.
Erling Haaland has been on fire this season with 39 goals in 33 games. The supporting cast in attack looks strong, featuring the likes of Foden, Jérémy Doku, Bernardo Silva, and new signing Antoine Semenyo. City should be able to breach Newcastle’s defense, but it’s hard to seeing them keeping a clean sheet. Their three best central defenders – Ruben Dias, John Stones, and Joško Gvardiol – are all injured and holding midfielder Rodri is unlikely to start this game. It could be tight, as this is only the first game in a two-legged clash. However, Newcastle have home advantage, and they have a strong record in this competition. The atmosphere in St. James’ Park will be electric, and the crowd could inspire the they to victory.
