Not every game matters from here on out, but the first game of Week 14 sure does count for quite a lot in the NFC standings. The Cowboys vs. Lions matchup on Thursday Night Football is basically a playoff game.
Both Detroit and Dallas are on the outside looking in at the postseason right now, with the Lions somehow having a less than 50% chance of making the dance and the Cowboys surging from 3-5-1 to give themselves a shot at not just a wild card spot, but maybe even the NFC East if everything falls right.
The loser of this game is probably staring at a very depressing month of January.
The Cowboys are currently -380 to miss the playoffs, but a win here and a Chargers win on Monday would give them serious life in the division. The Lions are -140 to miss the playoffs. Whoever loses on Thursday will find themselves in very, very bad shape for a postseason berth.
Did I mention the total is 54.5? This should be a wild, fun game. Let’s make some cheddar on it.
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If you’re new to NFL betting or need a refresher, make sure to check out our NFL betting guide with the season underway. Also make sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model’s forecast for the entire Cowboys versus Lions game.
Top straight bet (spread, money line or total)
Cowboys +3
I was really tempted by the Under in this game, but ultimately decided to just take the field goal with the Cowboys. I do think we could end up seeing a lot less scoring than we generally expect, but it’s not a typical Thursday game because both of these teams played on Thanksgiving, so they’re operating on “normal” rest.
The variance of both Dan Campbell and Brian Schottenheimer being aggressive on fourth down is what will probably end up deciding whether it goes Over or Under, and when we’re talking about a game with a lot of points expected and a lot of variance in how those points get scored, I’m going to side with the underdog.
Dallas also just might be the better team right now. In fact, Dallas might be one of the better teams in football right now. If they win one of their coin-flip games (vs. Green Bay or at Carolina) or simply don’t trade away Micah Parsons/trade for Quinnen Williams earlier, they’re probably not in such bad shape to make the postseason.
The defense has been substantially better since the bye — and, of course, the trade deadline. It’s also worth noting both teams will be down a top cornerback here, with the Cowboys missing Trevon Diggs and the Lions missing Trevion Arnold.
But Detroit’s bigger problem is the injury to Amon-Ra St. Brown. (Well, their biggest problem is the offensive line, but that’s been an issue all season long.) The Lions can supplement his loss thanks to Jameson Williams, but if the Cowboys can bottle up the run at all (again, much better at doing so since getting Williams midseason) and slow down Williams, they’ve got a good chance of tamping down the Lions potent offense.
Detroit can probably stop Javonte Williams from running wild on them, but if Dak Prescott is kept clean in this game, good luck keeping the Cowboys’ passing game from exploding.
You can bet on the Texans to cover the spread at BetMGM, where new users get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet doesn’t win:
Bills vs. Texans player props
CeeDee Lamb longest reception Over 24.5 yards
This is a fairly juicy price at FanDuel (-132) but it’s fairly juicy everywhere else too … at a yard higher. I’m willing to pay the 12 cents for the extra yard, which could end up mattering a lot. Over at Caesars Sportsbook, for example, 25.5 is actually more expensive than the 24.5 FanDuel is offering. Always shop around!
I’m still fine taking the 25.5 on DraftKings at -120, but, again, the single yard matters a lot with these particular prop bets.
Maybe a little less for Lamb, though, as he’s cruised past this number pretty easily in five of the six games since returning from injury, posting longest catches of 51, 48, 23, 33, 29 and 74 yards in those games, respectively.
The Cowboys are giving him routes way down the field, the Lions are prone to giving up big plays in the secondary this year and Lamb is explosive when he gets the ball in his hands even in short yardage. I really like this prop.
Isaac TeSlaa Over 36.5 receiving yards
This number could be long gone by kickoff, depending on the status of St. Brown. If the Lions star is out, I’d expect this to climb well into the 40s, because we have an expected shootout and the rookie TeSlaa would likely slot in as the No. 2 receiver for Jared Goff.
He finished the game against Green Bay last week with two catches (on two targets) for 35 yards and a touchdown, so there might not be an insane amount of volume coming his way, but with a week to prepare I’d expect the Lions to have a lot more stuff drawn up for him than they did when St. Brown went down on Thanksgiving.
You can’t just thrust anyone into the Sun God role on short notice and expect them to operate the exact same way, but Detroit is prepared for a possible absence this week and gets a much softer pass defense to throw against.
Jake Ferguson Over 4.5 receptions
The trustiest target for Dak Prescott in terms of over-the-middle looks, Ferguson also gets targets in short yardage areas as well. If we believe this game will be high scoring and Prescott will be throwing a lot, Ferguson should get peppered with targets.
Be a little cautious if you’re sprinkling a ton of reception props just because there are only so many to go around, but Dak is “expected” to complete 23 passes in this game. Ferguson should be able to snare five of those, especially if the Lions defense is focused on stopping the run and keying in on the primary outside targets.
TNF anytime touchdown scorer props
Jameson Williams +105
Well I was wrong (as of Thursday morning) about this number cratering, but it’s possible Williams’ anytime touchdown line is still at plus money because we haven’t seen Amon-Ra St. Brown ruled out yet.
St. Brown might still play in this one — it’s probably a true game-time decision. But regardless of whether the Lions star receiver is out there, I like Williams to find the end zone here. He’s an explosive playmaker with the ball in his hands, he’s the Lions’ best vertical threat and Dan Campbell’s made a point to get him the ball since taking over play-calling duties.
When St. Brown left the Thanksgiving game, Williams took over and was the focal point of the Lions’ passing game. If we think there’s going to be any scoring at all tonight (and we do!), Williams will be involved. We might cash this on the Lions’ first play from scrimmage.
George Pickens +115
Another No. 2 wide receiver with a good plus-money price, Pickens has been an incredible steal this year for the Cowboys given the low draft capital they gave up for him in an offseason trade.
Pickens is fifth among all receivers in terms of red-zone targets and top-10 overall (notably, he does trail Jake Ferguson, who is certainly a worthy look for an anytime touchdown as well) and if the Lions load up to stop the run, Pickens is a big-body, short-yardage guy who knows how to get open.
Prescott trusts him a ton near the goal line and I fully expect him to get looks and likely find the end zone.
Ryan Flourney +750
Let’s take a deep shot too! Flourney is the third wideout — and fourth overall — receiving option on this team, but he’s been a really pleasant surprise for Dallas this season.
When CeeDee Lamb went down with injury, he stepped up with some bigger games. Even with Lamb back in the fold, he’s still seeing some looks, including three targets last week against Kansas City. He scored twice in November in separate games and at this price I’m absolutely willing to nibble a quarter or half unit, as we’ve seen the Cowboys run plays for him near the goal line.
He’s a really fun first touchdown scorer look as well at 50-1 if you’re so inclined to dabble.
