Cowboys season outlook: Dak Prescott is healthy, but is that enough for Dallas to rebound from forgetful 2024?

Welcome to NFL Ideas, a wide-ranging, in-depth have a look at a number of the prime storylines of the 2025 season. Final week, we examined the 49ers’ tough 2024 and ensuing busy offseason and evaluated how a lot optimism there needs to be coming into 2025. Right this moment, we’re one other NFC crew that we questioned forward of final season after which endured a disappointing, injury-filled marketing campaign after years of success: the Cowboys.

Jerry Jones has spent the final a number of years backing — and speaking — himself right into a nook concerning the contracts of his greatest stars. This yr, he is doing the identical with Micah Parsons, however there is not the identical stage of consternation there had been concerning Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. Parsons confirmed as much as necessary minicamp, even with a deal nowhere to be discovered, and the celebrity move rusher’s willingness to try this routinely paints Dallas’ annual prime offseason storyline in a extra optimistic gentle. One would think about — regardless that it has already taken way more time than obligatory — {that a} deal will get achieved.

The second-biggest storyline is new head coach Brian Schottenheimer. After flirting with a number of large names, the Cowboys opted to remain in-house, elevating their offensive coordinator of the previous two seasons to his first head-coaching gig within the wake of Mike McCarthy’s departure. Schottenheimer is not going to solely tackle head teaching duties for the primary time ever but additionally play-calling duties for the primary time since 2020. It is a large leapfrog for him after Jones was unwilling/unable to make an enormous leap within the hiring course of. To put in writing Schottenheimer off already would not be affordable or honest, however there are vital doubts.

In spite of everything of that — plus a commerce for the mercurial George Pickens — we will lastly get to an important storyline: Can the Cowboys really compete once more? From 2021-23, with Prescott wholesome, solely the Chiefs gained extra video games than the Cowboys. One might level to Prescott’s well being as the first cause behind a 7-10 report in 2024, however Dallas went solely 3-5 in his eight begins earlier than his harm, pointing to larger points than quarterback well being. Whether or not they’ve been rectified or not stays TBD.

Cowboys offense: Can Prescott bounce again, and what does it appear like below Schottenheimer?

Prescott was a bonafide star in 2023. He completed second to Lamar Jackson in MVP voting and led the NFL with 36 landing passes. He posted his lowest interception charge since he was a rookie, one yr after main the NFL with 15 interceptions.

In 2024, although, Prescott missed throws, stared down receivers, acquired fooled by defenses and compelled balls into tight home windows. It was a shocking regression: eight interceptions in eight video games after 9 in 17 video games in 2023. Seven of the eight picks got here on throws at the least 10 yards downfield.

Prescott’s turnover-worthy throw charge of 9.2% on these throws was a profession excessive and the fourth-worst within the NFL, forward of solely Jameis Winston, Will Levis and Drake Maye. That is two of probably the most mistake-prone quarterbacks of the fashionable NFL and a rookie taking part in in terrible environment. Prescott posted a 3.3% charge in 2023 and had solely been above 7% twice in eight seasons earlier than final yr. Final yr did not make sense. He merely put the ball in hurt’s method far, far too usually downfield.

Operating by the ugly movie of Prscott’s picks, I seen all eight got here on straight dropbacks, relatively than play motion. Final yr, Prescott had a 16.9% play motion charge, not solely a profession low however the fourth-lowest mark within the league behind Caleb Williams (who was poorly coached), Cooper Rush (Prescott’s backup) and Kirk Cousins (who might hardly transfer months faraway from a ruptured Achilles).

Prescott was additionally in shotgun a career-high 74% of the time, and when he was in shotgun, the Cowboys threw the ball 76% of the time, which might have been the fourth-highest charge within the NFL. Total, Dallas had the second-highest passing charge within the first half of 2024. It was twenty first from 2021-23.

If the previous is any indication, Schottenheimer needs to convey that 2024 quantity method down. In his three-year stint as Seahawks offensive coordinator, solely the Titans and Ravens had a decrease passing frequency. A few of that was Russell Wilson scrambling, in fact, however Chris Carson emerged from seventh-round choose to standout below Schottenheimer, averaging almost 1,200 dashing yards throughout 2018 and 2019.

Schottenheimer inherits, on paper, a equally underwhelming backfield this season in Dallas. Offseason additions Javonte Williams (3.6) and Miles Sanders (3.5) have been two of the worst working backs within the NFL over the previous two seasons, rating forty sixth and forty eighth, respectively in yards per carry amongst 50 qualifying rushers. The crew drafted Jaydon Blue within the fifth spherical, and he is a significant expertise, however he had 4 fumbles final yr and is a bit undersized. We’ll see how a lot work he will get. Dallas wants his explosiveness desperately after rating twenty ninth in explosive rush charge final yr.

The Cowboys did not purchase Pickens to lean right into a working recreation headed by an unsure trio, although. A part of Prescott’s turnover points have been his receivers’ incapability to get open. ESPN’s receiver scores graded 116 vast receivers. One Cowboy — Lamb at thirteenth — was the one one within the prime half in “open” rating. KaVontae Turpin was seventy fifth, Brandin Cooks eightieth, Jalen Brooks 89th, Jalen Tolbert 93rd and Jonathan Mingo (whom the Cowboys traded a fourth-round choose for!) one hundred and fifteenth.

As such, the Pickens addition was much-needed, and Prescott is already singing his praises.

“You activate that man’s tape, he is getting separation,” Prescott told reporters last week. “He is acquired separation even when he isn’t getting the ball at occasions. And when he would not have separation, he is nonetheless making the catches.”

The talent has by no means been a query. Pickens was twenty fourth in open rating final season. He can win 50-50 balls, blaze downfield and produce after the catch. Since Pickens entered the league in 2022, solely two gamers have extra catches on throws 20 yards or extra downfield. Conversely, just one has extra catches than Lamb on throws 20 yards or fewer downfield.

That is the very best vast receiver duo Prescott has had, they usually complement each other. Holding the mercurial Pickens, who reportedly had unhealthy observe habits and acquired in sideline spats in Pittsburgh, centered will likely be key.

Lastly, for Prescott to ship these deep balls to Pickens, he wants a line that may afford him time. Tyler Smith is an rising star, and Tyler Booker was a first-round draft choose. His underwhelming mix numbers are a priority, however he additionally delivered the very best quote of the mix.

“I simply love the aggressiveness and the tenacity of the sport of soccer. It is authorized assault on the market,” he mentioned. “I really like soccer. The model of soccer I play, I make guys not love soccer anymore.”

Dallas actually loves that, and if he can open up dashing lanes, it’s going to be all the higher.

Issues could come right down to final yr’s first-round choose, left sort out Tyler Guyton. Guyton is the close to precise reverse of Booker: an incredible athlete however extraordinarily uncooked. Jared Dubin broke down Guyton’s rookie-year struggles, they usually have been those you’d count on from a uncooked prospect transferring to left sort out as an NFL rookie: penalties and down-to-down consistency.

Nonetheless, the Cowboys have a robust monitor report creating offensive linemen, the inside is a bodily bunch, and Terence Steele is at the least satisfactory at proper sort out. Defending Prescott’s blindside is an enormous activity, and Guyton have to be as much as it if the Cowboys are to get their offense buzzing once more.

How Cowboys offensive linemen are maximizing their potential with NFL’s prime OL guru in their very own yard

Garrett Podell

Cowboys protection: Can they get again to creating havoc?

In fashionable protection, there are two methods to succeed: dominating down-to-down (which is basically tough except you will have overwhelming expertise) and creating chaos within the type of turnovers and sacks (which is easier if issues bounce your method).

After excelling within the latter from 2021-23 below Dan Quinn — nobody compelled extra turnovers than the Cowboys’ 93 — Dallas did neither in 2024 below Mike Zimmer. To be honest, a few of that ought to have been anticipated. Quinn used a bunch of smaller, sooner gamers to create chaos all around the area. In 2023, Dallas performed dime (six defensive backs) on 60.4% of its snaps, not solely the best charge on report (since 2007) however an enormous, large outlier in present-day soccer. The second-highest charge that yr belonged to the Steelers at … 23.2%.

Zimmer prefers a way more conventional, organized fashion. The Cowboys, regardless of having related personnel from the yr earlier than, performed dime on simply 2.5% of snaps. Zimmer tried to usher in some gamers to assist ease the transition, nevertheless it was nonetheless usually a matter of sticking a sq. peg right into a spherical gap. And that was earlier than the accidents. Parsons missed time. Professional Bowl ballhawking cornerbacks Daron Bland and Trevon Diggs missed loads of time. DeMarvion Overshown, one of many brilliant spots from a misplaced season, suffered a brutal harm that may restrict his availability this yr. The Cowboys have been twenty fourth in defensive success charge and twenty ninth in run protection success charge.

They did not do an entire lot to deal with these points. Diggs continues to be recovering from one more knee surgical procedure. The most important additions have been Dante Fowler Jr., who had 10.5 sacks final yr for the Commanders however struggled in opposition to the run, and Kenneth Murray, who hasn’t lived as much as his first-round billing. Identical with cornerback Kaiir Elam, who might have an enormous function relying on the well being of that place group. Second-round EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku and third-round cornerback Shavon Revel Jr., each considered sturdy skills who slid within the draft, will even be counted on early.

The saving grace could be — and might need to be — Parsons. After coming back from harm in Week 10, Parsons had 11 sacks, 2.5 greater than anybody else and greater than the Giants had as a crew. His 49 pressures over that span have been seven greater than another participant. He’s a one-man wrecking crew.

The most effective-case for Dallas is Parsons performs at an all-world stage, and his presence offers a still-effective Fowler loads of one-on-one alternatives. Former first-round choose Mazi Smith lastly begins to point out enchancment in his third season alongside Osa Odighizuwa within the center, and the aggressive, athletic Marist Liufau can create havoc whereas additionally taking part in with extra self-discipline after an up-and-down rookie yr. Bland will get again to his playmaking methods, and Dallas, even when not dominant down-to-down, causes loads of unfavourable performs. Total, the gamers adapt significantly better to Zimmer’s schemes in Yr 2.

The worst case situation is … nicely, we noticed it play out final yr just about, and it wasn’t near ok. The 468 factors allowed have been second-most in franchise historical past.

Cowboys’ Micah Parsons on negotiations for contract extension: ‘I’ll get mine it doesn’t matter what’

Chris Bengel

Outlook: Is a wholesome Prescott and higher supporting solid sufficient?

There are questions on protection. There are questions at working again. There are extra questions than solutions. On one hand, we noticed Prescott single-handedly carry an offense with excellent play two years in the past. Alternatively, final yr was a wrestle throughout.

The opposite challenge right here is the NFC East. The Eagles are the defending Super Bowl champions. The Commanders made the NFC Championship Sport. Not solely that, however the NFC East has cross matchups with the loaded NFC North and AFC West this yr, divisions that produced three playoff groups every final yr.

The Cowboys are possible not the juggernaut that produced three straight 12-win seasons. However with inner defensive enhancements plus a centered Pickens, they’ll actually be a harmful crew and a possible playoff one, too. If Prescott struggles once more, although, or Schottenheimer underwhelms, or if the protection cannot get it collectively, there may be the very actual risk of a second straight postseason-less yr. And that is loads of “if”s.

Earlier ‘NFL Ideas’ tales

1. Projecting 2024 rookie QB class in 2025: Can Caleb Williams bounce again, Jayden Daniels proceed his rise?
2. Can 49ers rebound after disappointing 2024? How Christian McCaffrey’s return, remade protection affect outlook