Corner Picks, best soccer bets, odds, predictions: Keep riding Inter over Juventus, Arsenal over Liverpool

Are soccer groups getting smarter with their cash, or has the shortage of motion within the January switch window been a results of circumstance? I bear in mind being inundated with graphs and charts right now final 12 months exhibiting the Premier League spending eleventy billion {dollars} on gamers in January (and never solely as a result of Chelsea was throwing $100 million at anyone who waved to them) and the way it dwarfed the sum of money spent by the remainder of Europe’s prime leagues. The graphs have been used to showcase The Disaster surrounding the game.

This January hasn’t seen a lot disaster. All issues thought-about, it has been a moderately uninteresting switch window this 12 months. That is in all probability the extra clever strategy, as historical past suggests spending a bunch of cash in January is not the wisest choice. Groups make panic strikes to fill what they see as deficiencies, however the overwhelming majority of gamers accessible in January have been deemed expendable by their golf equipment for a purpose. Put these components collectively, and it results in loads of remorse whenever you get up in February and understand what you’ve got completed.

However is that this the beginning of a extra pragmatic strategy, or just a down market? Contemplating the analytical strategy from extra prime golf equipment worldwide, the previous is feasible, however I’ve hassle believing this would be the case once more subsequent season. With a lot cash on the road, it is at all times a matter of time till someone panics.

Let’s attempt to preserve our heads whereas making this weekend’s picks.

Mainz vs. Werder Bremen

Date: Saturday, Feb. 3 | Time: 9:30 a.m. ET | Watch: ESPN+

We have not had the perfect luck just lately with our Bundesliga performs, however I stay undeterred for a minimum of one other week. If we get kicked within the tooth once more this weekend, possibly I will rethink, however that is one other glorious spot. Mainz is at the moment in a relegation spot, however they’ve performed significantly better than their outcomes point out. Whereas they’ve a purpose differential of -16 on the season, their anticipated purpose (xG) differential of -2.6 ranks eighth within the league. Having stated that, the xG differential is a lot smaller as a result of Mainz can not end to avoid wasting their life. That is an issue!

However Mainz have been a a lot stronger staff at house, significantly defensively. Werder Bremen are hanging across the center of the league primarily as a consequence of their house type. They’ve received solely as soon as in 10 matches and hemorrhage objectives on the highway. There is a good likelihood Mainz will decide up three large factors on Saturday. The Choose: Mainz (+110)

Arsenal vs. Liverpool

Date: Sunday, Feb. 4 | Time: 11:30 a.m. ET | Watch: Peacock

These groups met a number of weeks in the past on the Emirates Stadium in an FA Cup match, with Liverpool successful 2-0. The consequence was considerably of a shock as a result of Arsenal have been robust at house this season. Whereas Liverpool are atop the Premier League, they are much extra weak away from Anfield, the place they have been virtually invincible. In 11 house matches in league play, Liverpool have 9 wins and two attracts with an xG differential of +21.8. They’ve solely misplaced as soon as on the highway, however their xG differential in 11 matches drops to +2.1.

What’s extra essential to me than that, although, is that since that 2-0 win over Arsenal, Liverpool have performed 5 matches. This match will likely be their fourth in 11 days. In the meantime, Arsenal have performed solely two matches because the loss to Liverpool and have a lot brisker legs. They’ve additionally seemed excellent in these two matches, so at house, with brisker legs, it is onerous to move up on the Gunners. The Choose: Arsenal (+125)

Inter vs. Juventus

Date: Sunday, Feb. 4 | Time: 2:45 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

I wrote right here final week that Inter are on a distinct degree from all people else in Serie A and that I used to be firing blindly on them till additional discover. It labored final week, as Inter beat Fiorentina, however we obtained a bit fortunate. You may argue Fiorentina have been the higher staff a lot of the match. This week, Inter are again house dealing with the one staff that poses a risk within the league. Juventus are solely a degree behind within the standings and has gone towards sort this season. Juve have a little bit of a youth motion happening, and it is paying dividends.

However I am not backing off Inter. As spectacular as this Juventus staff has been, that is nonetheless a visit to San Siro, and Juve could not get a lot of something going towards Inter of their November assembly in Turin. We proceed driving the Nerazzurri bandwagon. The Choose: Inter (-125)

Weekend Parlay

This weekend we have now a four-leg parlay paying +172. 

• Bayer Leverkusen (-390)
• Newcastle United (-255)
• RB Leipzig (-275)
• Benfica (-700)