We nearly made historical past in Nook Picks final week. After dropping our first two matches of the weekend and seeing the parlay die with Napoli’s draw in opposition to Genoa, the column was 0-3 and staring 0-4 proper within the face. I’ve had undefeated weeks and gone 3-1, 2-2 and 1-3 loads of occasions.
However I would by no means gone 0-4, and due to two second-half targets from Actual Madrid after falling behind Actual Sociedad 1-0 within the first half, we nonetheless have not.
We nonetheless went 1-3, although, and we’re all the way down to 8-8 on the season for detrimental cash. This isn’t a place I am used to being in with this column, neither is it one I plan to take care of any longer than is critical. So let’s get again into the win column this week and proper the store.
All odds by way of SportsLine consensus
Arsenal vs. Tottenham Hotspur
Date: Sunday, Sept. 24 | Time: 9 a.m. ET | Watch: Peacock
It is the North London Derby, and I hope you learn that in a cockney accent, as a result of that is how I stated it in my head as I typed it. Tottenham is off to a superb begin beneath Ange Postecoglou, but it surely’s a type of conditions the place the outcomes have been higher than the performances. Spurs have a objective differential of +8 after 5 matches, however their anticipated objective (xG) differential is +2.5. Merely put, the assault has been nice even with out Harry Kane, but it surely’s overperformed at a fee I can not think about that might be maintained with out Harry Kane.
On the opposite finish, Spurs have allowed 5 targets on an xG allowed of 6.9. So the attacking ought to worsen, as ought to the defending. That is not nice information, contemplating they have to face Arsenal. With a whole lot of new faces to work in, Arsenal have began the season slightly slowly, however there are indicators of progress. Arsenal have received three straight since a 2-2 draw to Fulham, outscoring opponents 8-1. I like Arsenal to win, however not as a lot as I like loads of targets scored. The Choose: Over 3.5 (+130)
Lazio vs. Monza
Date: Saturday, Sept. 23 | Time: 2:45 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+
It is a bit morbid, however earlier than the season started, I took out a future on Monza to be relegated at (+1800). My reasoning was easy: Silvio Berlusconi died in June. Berlusconi, the previous Italian president and proprietor of AC Milan, poured some huge cash into Monza to get them to Serie A. He did so with out regard for whether or not he made a revenue. Victory was his objective. He achieved it, however with out an proprietor who does not care about making a revenue, Monza does not have the cash to spend. Practically each greenback spent this summer season was on loan-to-buy offers they made final yr.
After a powerful debut season that noticed the crew end eleventh, Monza do not look the identical to start out the brand new season. Their lone win was in opposition to an Empoli crew that hasn’t scored a objective in 4 matches. In the meantime, in opposition to Inter and Atalanta, Monza was outscored 5-0. Lazio will show to be an excessive amount of for Monza to deal with. The Choose: Lazio (-130)
Atletico Madrid vs. Actual Madrid
Date: Sunday, Sept. 24 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: ESPN+
Early within the season, one match can skew issues. After three matches, Atletico Madrid led all of La Liga with 10 targets scored. Nonetheless, seven of them got here in a single match in opposition to Rayo Vallecano. Since that win, Atletico misplaced to Valencia 3-0 and drew Lazio 1-1 in Champions League play. To be blunt, I do not assume this Atletico crew is almost nearly as good because the 7-0 win suggests. They’re far nearer to the crew that has scored 4 targets of their different 4 matches and have been shutout twice.
So I count on Diego Simeone’s crew to attempt to muck issues up this weekend in opposition to Actual Madrid, and whereas that is most likely one of the best plan of assault, I am not assured it will be a profitable one. Actual Madrid do not look nice regardless of their outcomes thus far (it is exhausting to switch Karim Benzema), however I’ve way more religion in them than Atletico. The Choose: Actual Madrid (+150)
Weekend Parlay
A easy four-leg parlay paying +137 this week.
- Manchester Metropolis (-700)
- Barcelona (-350)
- Inter (-310)
- Bayer Leverkusen (-460)
|
League Play |
8-8 |
-0.33 |
|
Champions League |
0-0 |
+0.00 |
| General | 8-8 | -0.33 |
