Preseason rankings are enjoyable, however with a lot participant motion within the switch portal period, males’s faculty basketball is more durable than ever to foretell. Which is fairly enjoyable, really! Let soccer have the identical small group of groups competing for the nationwide title yearly. We’ll take our surprises like Florida Atlantic, San Diego State and Miami within the Last 4.
OK, positive, we like conventional blue bloods in these spots, too. The purpose right here is, there are at all times groups that sneak up on us regardless of months of prognosticating. who wasn’t ranked by the AP or coaches within the preseason polls a 12 months in the past? Massive Ten champion Purdue. Or Massive East champ Marquette. Or Xavier, which made the Candy 16. FAU didn’t obtain a single vote in both ballot.
In order we start our annual preseason predictions, the primary problem to our panel of 12 voters was to find this season’s shock staff. We’re basing the subjective phrase “shock” with the next necessary standards: The staff can’t be ranked in both main ballot or in KenPom’s preseason Top 25 It’s not the way you begin; it’s the way you end. Listed here are the groups our voters wish to exceed expectations:
Now hear let’s hear among the the explanation why every staff was picked:
The Horned Frogs carry again the second-most scoring by proportion within the Massive 12 (53.6 proportion) on high of bringing in a powerful switch portal class. Jamie Dixon and workers added 5 transfers, led by two-time All-CAA choice Jameer Nelson Jr., who averaged 20.6 factors, 4.6 rebounds and three.6 assists per sport final 12 months at Delaware. Former Kansas and McDonald’s All-American middle Ernest Udeh Jr., Oklahoma State second main scorer Avery Anderson III, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi sharpshooter Trevian Tennyson (profession 39. p.c 3-point shooter) and Essam Mostafa, who led the Solar Belt in double-doubles at Coastal Carolina spherical out the spectacular group of newcomers.
The Massive 12 is nearly as good because it’s ever been, however the Frogs have among the best backcourts within the convention and the nation with good depth that can win these shut convention video games. In contrast to many Massive 12 groups, they boast important depth, with the return of key gamers like JaKobe Coles, Micah Peavy, and Chuck O’Bannon Jr., enabling them to subject a 10-man rotation when obligatory.
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TCU has 5 gamers on its roster with greater than 1,000 profession factors, together with 4 of the incoming transfers and Emanuel Miller, whom the coaches chosen to the preseason all-conference staff. — Tobias Bass
New Mexico
what’s a extremely good mixture? Elite backcourt play, nice 3-point capturing, and a great deal of expertise. The Lobos carry again guards Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelen Home, who mixed to common 36 factors per sport, every capturing over 37 p.c on 3s. Now add veteran transfers Nelly Junior Joseph (Iona), Jemarl Baker (Fresno State) and Mustapha Amzil (Dayton). So long as everybody stays wholesome, getting into 2024, Richard Pitino’s high 5 will all be over 22 years outdated with over 100 profession video games performed. As well as, there’s first-team All-Southland grad switch Isaac Mushila, gifted rising sophomore Donovan Dent, and some good freshman additions.
The addition of Junior Joseph addresses the Lobos’ major concern following final 12 months’s 22-12 marketing campaign — changing middle Morris Udeze. Junior Joseph was the MAAC participant of the 12 months for Rick Pitino and an Iona staff that reached the NCAA Match. He’s 6-10, 240 kilos, and guarded the rim for among the best mid-major defensive groups within the nation a 12 months in the past. The query, now that he’s finally arrived on campus, is that if he can anchor the again line of a protection that badly wants to enhance. New Mexico ranked eighth within the Mountain West in defensive effectivity, permitting opponents to shoot practically 54 p.c on 2s final season.
The Lobos could have no drawback scoring. The opposite finish will decide if it is a authentic NCAA Match risk. Richard Pitino has coached a top-40 protection as soon as in 11 years as a Division I head coach. If this seems to be the second time, New Mexico might be this 12 months’s gate-crasher from the Mountain West. After current years of watching San Diego State, Utah State, Nevada and even Boise State flip into acquainted NCAA Match packages, it’s time for the Lobos to return to the dance for the primary time since 2014. — Brendan Quinn
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St. John’s
Possibly you’ve heard of this Rick Pitino fellow? The one coach in males’s faculty basketball historical past to take three completely different groups to the Last 4? Nationwide titles at each Kentucky and Louisville? (“Vacated” doesn’t imply it didn’t occur, people!)
Uh, yeah. I’m gonna guess on that dude figuring issues out once more, actual fast.
In any case: Within the final three years at Iona — after Pitino’s exile in Greece, following his dismissal from Louisville — the 71-year-old proved he’s nonetheless among the best within the sport, twice main the Gaels to the NCAA Match. In The Athletic’s teaching tiers checklist final week, Pitino slotted in at (shocker) Tier 1; if I needed to choose one coach within the nation to win one faculty hoops sport, it’s both Pitino or Kansas’ Invoice Self. That’s the checklist.
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Now you’re letting that caliber of coach, a local New Yorker, arrange store within the space he is aware of greatest, in an period the place gamers incomes cash isn’t frowned upon? Look out.
It additionally helps that Pitino utterly overhauled the roster; 6-11 middle Joel Soriano, a top-20 rebounder nationally final season, is the one substantial returner. In got here Jordan Dingle, the nation’s second-leading scorer and the Ivy League Participant of the 12 months; Nahiem Alleyne, a reserve on UConn’s title staff final season however a key shooter at Virginia Tech earlier than that; Daniss Jenkins, Pitino’s second-leading scorer at Iona; Chris Ledlum, who decommitted from Tennessee to hitch St. John’s; and Simeon Wilcher, a four-star freshman who was initially headed to North Carolina.
How do all these items match collectively? I can’t say for sure.
However who can? The dude who assembled them — and I’m banking on him maximizing their expertise, even in a stacked Massive East. — Brendan Marks
Virginia
A part of that is plain outdated attrition. The ACC is, at greatest, in flux and at worst, not superb. Solely three groups make the Related Press preseason ballot and solely two make it into Ken Pomeroy’s high 25 projections. Of these groups, one comes with enormous query marks alongside its identify — hi there, North Carolina. Miami has an opportunity to be good once more. After that? There’s a number of wait-and-see and shoulder shrug, which suggests there are video games accessible to be received. Profitable video games typically goes over properly with ballot voters.
One may argue that the shoulder shrug contains Virginia. Honest sufficient. However the Cavaliers did end 15-5 within the league a 12 months in the past, and 25-8 total, and so they’ve obtained a staff that fits Tony Bennett greater than that squad did. Bennett now has two convention defensive gamers of the 12 months — Reece Beekman, from the ACC, and Jordan Minor from the NEC —and sophomore Ryan Dunn, whose NBA prospects are pinned largely to his defensive prowess.
This could imply Bennett has a staff extra suited to play the very factor that separates Virginia from everybody else. Specifically, good protection. Virginia hasn’t been dangerous in that division — simply not Virginia good. If the Cavs can begin wanting like themselves once more, all bets are off.
There may be additionally, going again to that loopy winning-games-equals-poll-popularity idea, extra practicality in siding with Virginia right here. The Cavs shouldn’t have precisely the toughest schedule within the nation to beat. Florida, Texas A&M, Memphis, Wisconsin and SMU or West Virginia rank as their hardest nonconference foes.
Therefore, extra wins. — Dana O’Neil
Tamin Lipsey and Iowa State wish to get again to the NCAA Match. (Bob Donnan / USA Right this moment)
Earlier than T.J. Otzelberger arrived at Iowa State in 2021, the Cyclones had been 0-18 in Massive 12 play and wanted a jolt. Otzelberger rapidly rebuilt the roster and confidence of his squad and Iowa State superior to the Candy 16 in his first season.
Final 12 months, the Cyclones once more certified for the NCAA Match. Otzelberger has parlayed that early success into recruiting energy and introduced within the highest-ranked recruiting class in ISU historical past. It additionally landed him a two-year extension. The Cyclones rank seventh within the 247Sports Composite for 2023 and scored a pair of recruiting wins with five-star ahead Omaha Biliew (6-8) and four-star ahead Milan Momcilovic (6-8). Biliew is ranked because the thirteenth participant nationally whereas Momcilovic is thirty seventh. Then four-star, 7-foot-1 middle J.T. Rock reclassified to the 2023 class. As well as, top-200 gamers Kayden Fish and Jelani Hamilton may contribute straight away.
These freshmen, plus returning beginning guard Tamin Lipsey (7.3 ppg, 4.4 apg) and portal guards Keshon Gilbert (11.4 ppg at UNLV), Jackson Paveletzke (15.1 ppg at Wofford) and Curtis Jones (15.0 ppg at Buffalo) have the potential to mildew Iowa State right into a aggressive, athletic staff straight away. With Otzelberger’s defensive insistence, the Cyclones ought to turn into one of many nation’s shock groups this season with gelling functionality getting into March Insanity. — Scott Dochterman
Memphis
Hyped groups with hyped freshmen have marked Penny Hardaway’s tenure up to now, so I sort of like the thought of an under-the-radar staff constructed round gamers who’ve had success in faculty basketball. Penny’s portal plundering has yielded former Alabama level guard Jahvon Quinerly, former Florida State combo guard Caleb Mills and Jordan Brown, a artful 6-11 middle who received the Lou Henson Award as mid-major participant of the 12 months for Louisiana final season.
Mills and Brown are 23. Brown is a former five-star recruit who was beforehand at Arizona and Nevada. Throw in versatile 6-6 wing David Jones from St. John’s, and you’ve got a core of skilled, confirmed newcomers. They’re a part of a staff with seven gamers who’re at the least of their fourth 12 months of school basketball. And that doesn’t even rely DeAndre Williams, who’s interesting for yet one more 12 months with the Tigers (although it doesn’t seem that he’ll get it). Taking pictures ought to come from freshman Ashton Hardaway and Jaykwon Walton, a Wichita State switch. Protection is a good query after the Tigers misplaced so many sturdy defenders. Quite a lot of this can come all the way down to Quinerly discovering the stability between aggression and recklessness. — Joe Rexrode
The Scarlet Knights misplaced some acquainted faces to each the portal and commencement, however I like what Steve Pikiell is constructing in Piscataway — and the way in which he’s constructing it. Rutgers at all times needs to be among the best defensive groups within the league, and it ought to stay so heading right into a season the place I feel the expectation is, once more, that the Scarlet Knights seem poised to complete squarely on that NCAA Match bubble. Or higher!
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Pikiell is revamping his staff’s offensive identification, it appears, with a concentrate on higher pace and improved 3-point capturing effectivity. The frontcourt can be anchored once more by the veteran Clifford Omoruyi, who might be among the best gamers within the convention, however the backcourt is the place the transition can be felt extra acutely. UMass graduate switch Noah Fernandes can be essential, and Derek Simpson, who got here on late as a real freshman a season in the past, might be poised for a breakout season. And, by the way in which, even when this prediction is mistaken for this coming season … I’ll simply recycle it for subsequent 12 months, when Pikiell welcomes in what can be among the best recruiting lessons within the nation. — Nicole Auerbach
(Prime picture of TCU’s Emanuel Miller: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Pictures)
