After seven entertaining matchdays, the UEFA Champions League’s league phase comes to a dramatic close on Wednesday with 13 simultaneous games, each of them bearing some importance as the road to next spring’s final becomes clearer.
While Arsenal and Bayern Munich are already through to the round of 16 and a handful are guaranteed at least a berth in the knockout phase playoffs, there is much to play for — and plenty of questions for Europe’s elites to answer. Can Manchester City end their league phase campaign on a high after last week’s surprise defeat at Bodo/Glimt? Will Inter remind onlookers of their credentials as a regional heavyweight with a win against Borussia Dortmund? Are Napoli in trouble? Are Tottenham Hotspur about to overperform?
The CBS Sports team takes their best shot at answering those questions and predicting how exactly Matchday 8 — and the rest of the Champions League season will play out.
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Champions League matches
Surprise elimination
James Benge: Monaco — Currently quite well placed in 21st and rounding the competition off at home, it is Monaco’s misfortune that they are running into a Juventus team that are starting to find a bit of verve under Luciano Spalletti. Though they are hardly the sort of superpower who should be competing for top eight spots there really is enough talent in this team to have been well in the top 24. You fear that their inability to beat Pafos away and Tottenham at home might greatly harm Sebastien Pocognoli’s men.
Pardeep Cattry: Napoli — When Antonio Conte starts complaining publicly, the end is usually near. The vibes aren’t so great for Napoli after a 3-0 pounding by Juventus over the weekend, likely putting them out of reach in the Serie A title race and ensuring the vibes are not all that great heading into Matchday 8 in the Champions League. Combine that with the fact that Chelsea, despite a chaotic season, are doing reasonably well in Europe, Napoli may crumble under the pressure on Wednesday and see their hopes of advancing in this competition dashed, too.
Francesco Porzio: Napoli — I don’t really know if it would count as a surprise or not but I don’t see Antonio Conte’s team advancing to the playoffs. The Azzurri are deeply affected by injuries and the Italian coach showed his disappointment about the current situation many times over the past few weeks. With two wins, two draws and three defeats including the 6-2 loss to PSV, Napoli can be already considered as one of the biggest disappointments of the Champions League season.
Chuck Booth: Monaco — Despite having some good wins during the league phase so far, taking out Galatasaray and Bodo/Glimt while taking a point off of Manchester City, the French side are a great example of a team that didn’t do enough against teams around them. Defeat Pafos and things would be quite differnet but facing Juventus on the final day with so many teams able to surpass them sets Monaco up for disappointment at home.
Surprise top eight finisher
James Benge: Chelsea — Holding onto eighth place as it stands, Chelsea have one of the tougher assignments on paper of the teams on 13 points. On paper might be the operative word though given Napoli’s faltering form in Serie A and the Champions League. If there is a team who have a tactical style to take the air out of big games like this it is probably Liam Rosenior’s, whose midfield should be able to impose itself on the hosts and set the stage for a narrow, crucial victory.
Pardeep Cattry: Tottenham — Thomas Frank’s team cannot beat Premier League relegation contenders West Ham United and Burnley but Europe’s middling teams suit them just fine. They are not merely on pace to advance but to spare their suffering fans two extra games by advancing straight to the round of 16, even though Frank’s team seems visionless and lacks the quality to do much damage in their domestic league. Their results are probably a bad look for some of their opponents but Spurs won’t care, nor should they.
Francesco Porzio: Tottenham — Thomas Frank’s side is in a good spot in the European tournament as they are in fifth place with 14 points after seven games and will meet Eintracht Frankfurt away in the last game of the league phase. With the German side already eliminated from the Champions League, Spurs can realistically hold strong hopes of avoiding the playoffs next month.
Chuck Booth: Tottenham — Center back FC can’t keep getting away with this, right? It’s a team who already won the Europa League last campaign while finishing 17th in the Premier League last season, and even with their wobbles, Thomas Frank has gotten just enough out of the squad to finish comfortably in the top eight earning their spot in the last 16 and much-needed revenue for the club. It’s quite strange because now, depending on who they meet in the knockouts, Tottenham could turn into a side that teams don’t want to face with players having time to return to health.
Team that is in trouble but shouldn’t worry
James Benge: Barcelona — The battle for top eight is probably going to be decided by goal difference and if there’s one thing Barcelona can do it is run up the goals. Copenhagen aren’t to be taken lightly and you’d fancy them to nick more than one at the other end if Hansi Flick loosens any sort of handbrake that he might have applied to the Catalans this season. Still if it is to be a shoot out, it is Barca who have the most intimidating arsenal.
Pardeep Cattry: Manchester City — Things continue to go in the wrong direction for Manchester City and it’s hard to put a finger on why, in part because they have all the tools they need to go on a deep run. Sure, they are overly reliant on Erling Haaland but Pep Guardiola’s side are not to be underestimated — Haaland can begin running hot at any given time and the good news for City is that nwe signing Rayan Cherki migth be able to fill in as Mr. Reliable in case his Norwegian teammate cannot. City aren’t perfect but they would still be the favorites in most of their potential matchups in the knockout pahse, and not only because of their pedigree.
Francesco Porzio: Barcelona — Looking at the standings entering the last matchday of action, Barcelona are out of the top eight just for the goal difference but considering they will face FC Copenaghen in the last game of the league phase and can score a lot of goals and avoid the two extra games in February, a key month for the LaLiga title race.
Chuck Booth: Manchester City — Losing to Bodo/Glimt may have been the wake-up call that City needed. They couldn’t offer anything on the counter attack, but at this point, it’s about just making it to the knockout phase, which they’ve already done. Once they get there, new signings Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi will be able to offer major lifts to a squad that surely needs it. While City still need to get Erling Haaland back to the peak of his powers, this is still a side that no one will want to face.
Team most needing to avoid the playoffs
James Benge: Manchester City — There is a lot of work to do on multiple fronts where Pep Guardiola is concerned and the last thing he needs is to fit in two knockout playoffs around EFL Cup, FA Cup and Premier League commitments, all the more so given the faltering form in the latter. Those recent results are also a warning sign of how dramatically things can go wrong in 90 minutes for City, who might just have a bit of a rough time if they land an Olympiacos, Monaco or Napoli.
Pardeep Cattry: Inter — The current Serie A leaders have all they need to avoid defeat against Borussia Dortmund but if they can’t, the result will feel like a real indictment on their bonafides both in Italy and in Europe. Adding a couple of extra games to the schedule will not help in a fiercely-contested race for first place in Serie A, while the possibility of drawing one of the more competitive teams that reach the knockout phase playoffs could really test Inter’s mettle — and throw their season into disarray for the second year in a row.
Francesco Porzio: Inter — The Nerazzurri are likely to face the playoffs in February even if they will win against Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday but that would be a big issue. Inter are locked in a title race with AC Milan in Serie A, and with the Rossoneri not involved in European competitions, the additional workload of the playoffs could actually work in Massimiliano Allegri’s favor. The extra fixtures may help AC Milan chances, making Inter’s participation in the playoffs potentially the best news of their week.
Chuck Booth: Juventus — While their fortunes have improved as of late, finishing between ninth and 11th in the league phase table could set a club up to face Napoli in a round of 16 tie. This is even worse if it’s an Italian club due to Antonio Conte’s familiarity with them. Given that Juve are a side where you don’t know what team will appear on any day, that only makes a knockout date with Napoli more of a nightmare.
The favorite to win the competition right now
James Benge: Arsenal — Which incredibly obvious point to start with? Arsenal are top and are probably going to be the first team to go 8-0-0 in the league phase. Despite the mass hysteria that followed a weird loss to Manchester United, they’re not doing too shabbily in the Premier League either and European games seem to be where Arsenal lose their inhibition. Yes, they don’t get to check out of the league from spring onwards like Bayern do but there is intimidating depth to Mikel Arteta’s squad to counterbalance that.
Pardeep Cattry: Arsenal — As fun as it would be to pick someone else, the Champions League title is clearly Arsenal’s to lose at this stage. It doesn’t mean there are not formidable challengers, Bayern Munich among the most obvious, nor does it mean the Gunners have it all mapped out. A look at Sunday’s defeat to Manchester United shows that they need to learn how to deal with adversity but even then, it is hard not to favor them over most of the teams they could potenitally meet en route to Budapest. Their defense remains Europe’s best, and their key to possibly winning this title for the first time.
Francesco Porzio: Bayern Munich — While Arsenal are probably the best team around Europe right now, Bayern Munich have a big advantage as they have already secured the Bundesliga race with a 8-point gap on Borussia Dortmund and can focus on the European tournament, while Mikel Arteta’s side will have to pay more attention on the Premier League as well, as they couldn’t increase their gap with the competitors.
Chuck Booth: Arsenal — Until proven otherwise, the Gunners are the team to beat. The other sides chasing them have plenty of questions, and while there is time to answer them, Arsenal’s defense leaves them top of the pile. Sure, Bayern Munich could return to their annual tradition of squashing Arsenal’s hopes in the knockout stages of the tournament, but outside of something like that, it feels like this is Arsenal’s tournament to lose as they chase the first UCL title in their history. Now they have to continue to respond ot the pressure that they’re faced with.
