Ole Miss has been doubted at every turn this season, from a perceived lack of championship pedigree in the SEC to the late departure of Lane Kiffin for LSU, a move that left many wondering whether the roster could hold together once the postseason arrived.
Instead, Ole Miss has thrived under newly instated coach Pete Golding, positioning itself to chase history as the first team in the AP poll era to win a national championship following an in-season coaching change. But it’s that history of “firsts” that pushes back against Ole Miss, even after the Rebels avenged their only loss this season with a thrilling victory against Georgia to advance to the College Football Playoff’s semifinals. Oddsmakers list Ole Miss with the longest odds to win the national championship (+570), and the No. 6 Rebels are underdogs, even as the higher seed, against No. 10 Miami this week in the Fiesta Bowl.
Dig through NFL Draft projections and you won’t find a projected first-round pick on Ole Miss’ roster next spring. They’re the only team in the playoffs without a sure-fire first-rounder.
And yet, does anyone really doubt them now?
This is the wildest slate of semifinalists the sport has ever seen. Indiana is the favorite to win the title but started the season with +1000 odds. The four semifinalists have one combined CFP semifinal appearance among them, and only one (Miami) has ever been recognized as the unanimous national champion.
Indiana opened the season with +1000 odds and now sits as the betting favorite. The four remaining teams share just one combined CFP semifinal appearance, and only one program — Miami — has ever been recognized as a unanimous national champion.
So why can Ole Miss win its first national title since sharing one with Minnesota in 1960? Let’s examine the reasons.
CFP’s most explosive offense
Indiana gets the headlines for offensive firepower, but no team left in the field has been harder to slow than Ole Miss. The Rebels have scored at least 30 points in eight straight games — the nation’s longest streak and a school record — and present a daunting matchup for a Miami defense that held its first two CFP opponents to just 17 combined points, including two scoreless first halves.
Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has elevated his play when it has mattered most. He threw for a career-high 362 yards while engineering a nine-point comeback against Georgia in the quarterfinals. Chambliss has eclipsed 300 yards eight times this season despite not opening the year as the starter. The former Division II quarterback already knows how to finish a championship run, having won a national title at Ferris State last season, and his scrambling ability and precision passing have lifted the Rebels’ ceiling. He also has 21 touchdowns against only three interceptions, the least among remaining quarterbacks.
“We have faced some really good ones throughout the course of the year, especially the last couple of weeks. Watching him on film, he’s a different level,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal said. “I mean, he can do it all, and he has excelled in every aspect of the game.”
Chambliss isn’t alone. Running back Kewan Lacy has been a wrecking ball, scoring 23 rushing touchdowns — second-most in the FBS and third all-time in SEC history behind Derrick Henry and Najee Harris. Both of those backs won national championships in those seasons at Alabama. History leaves breadcrumbs.
Ole Miss ranks second nationally in yards per game (496.2) and leads all remaining teams in offensive production. The Rebels are averaging 40 points per game in the CFP.
If Ole Miss beats the best pass-rushing defense (Miami) with its usual pace and aggression, it’s fair to ask: who left can actually stop it?
Ole Miss moves forward — even as its past looms and an uncertain future beckons — by eliminating Georgia
Richard Johnson
Never out when down
Falling behind hasn’t rattled this team. Ole Miss is 5-1 this season when trailing by seven points or more, the best mark in the country. That includes last week’s nine-point rally against Georgia in the quarterfinals.
The lone blemish came earlier in the season at Georgia, when the Bulldogs scored 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to flip a nine-point deficit into a 43-35 Ole Miss loss.
Resilience matters in January. There’s something to be said about a team that can rally. It helps having a prolific offense, of course. The team is as cohesive as any and plays at a championship level in the face of every challenge.
The ultimate edge on special teams
Every championship contender needs a safety valve, and Ole Miss has one in kicker Lucas Carneiro.
Carneiro has been a sure thing, kicking the ball. He’s responsible for 22 of Ole Miss’ points in the postseason. He drilled two field goals of 55-plus yards in the quarterfinals, setting a CFP record while also becoming the only kicker in the last 30 years to make three field goals beyond 45 yards in a bowl game. His 47-yarder with 6 seconds broke the tie and iced the 39-34 win against Georgia last week.
Ole Miss’ special teams coverage has also been fantastic. The Rebels rank fourth nationally in punt coverage, averaging 43.5 yards in net punting. That hidden yardage is the difference in championship games.
