Bitcoin (BTC-USD) remained under pressure on Monday, falling below $94,000 and bringing its losses from record highs in October to around 25%. The drop is prompting questions about whether this remains a temporary correction or the beginning of another four-year cycle that led to a longer-term sell-off.
The token has declined sharply since $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated last month, a move exacerbated by long-term holders taking profits. The current sell-off also coincides with the window in which bitcoin historically peaks, approximately between 400 and 600 days after its last halving event, which occurred in April 2024.
“This self-fulfilling prophecy has led to a market sell-off for bitcoin in Q4’25,” Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote. “However, we believe, the following evidence points to a short term consolidation into a new local bottom and not the historical 60-70% drawdown seen in previous cycles.”
Bitcoin reached a record high above $126,000 per token on Oct. 6.
Read more about cryptocurrency moves and today’s market action
The analysts noted an increase in ETF adoption by institutional investors, reflecting “higher quality and consistent ownership” of bitcoin.
The Trump administration’s support for bitcoin and the Clarity Act legislation in Congress also represent positive drivers.
“The current market environment does not feel like a cycle-peak to us.” Chhugani said. “It rather feels like a structural multi-year trend of institutional participation in Bitcoin and crypto capital markets, with occasional corrections along the way.”
“We are observing if Bitcoin can bottom close to ~$80K range seen immediately post the Trump election. We believe, the current market weakness may provide an attractive entry for new investors,” he added.
Strategy’s (MSTR) continued buying of the cryptocurrency also offers some level of support, with the company on Monday revealing that it purchased another 8,178 tokens at an average price of $102,171 each, for a total of $835 million.
Read more: Can you buy crypto with a credit card? See the pros and cons.
Meanwhile, 10X Research noted that new buyer appetite stalled around Oct. 10, while the Fed’s more hawkish tone in recent days “has tilted the macro balance, leaving the market increasingly fragile.”
“This is precisely why the four-year cycle warrants serious consideration,” according to the 10X Research note.
“[This cycle] aligns with a broad set of independent indicators and conditions that all point to the same conclusion: this is a moment for maximum caution.”
