In the final game of the divisional round of the playoffs, the Chicago Bears play host to the Los Angeles Rams for the right to face the Seahawks in Seattle next Sunday.
Chicago is coming off yet another wild, comeback victory, having stormed back from a 21-3 halftime deficit to beat the Packers with a last-minute touchdown pass from Caleb Williams to D.J. Moore. The Bears are the No. 2 seed and will get to host this game, but they are nevertheless underdogs in the contest.
Los Angeles staged a comeback victory of its own last week after previously having blown a large lead during the game. The Rams trailed twice in the fourth quarter against the Panthers, but came right back with a touchdown pass to take the lead and then ultimately win it. They were road favorites last week against Carolina and will be again this week in Chicago.
Will the Bears continue their magical run, or will the Rams go into frigid Soldier Field and win? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we break down some key storylines, here’s a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch Bears vs. Rams live
Key storylines
- Cardiac Bears. Chicago has made a habit of comeback victories. The Bears have an incredible SEVEN wins this year in games where they trailed in the fourth quarter. They trailed the Raiders 24-19 before winning 25-24. They trailed the Commanders 24-16 before winning, again, 25-24. They trailed the Bengals 42-41 before winning 47-42 on a miracle touchdown pass with 17 seconds left. They trailed the Giants 20-10 before scoring back-to-back touchdowns to win 24-20. They trailed the Vikings 17-16 before kicking the game-winning field goal as time expired to win 19-17. And they had a pair of miraculous comebacks against the Packers, trailing 16-6 before winning 22-16 in overtime late in the regular season and then coming back from being down 21-9 to win 31-27 last week in the opening round of the playoffs.
- Matthew Stafford vs. Bears pass defense. Stafford is arguably the league’s MVP. He completed 65% of his passes at an average of 7.9 yards per attempt during the regular season, throwing for a league-high 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns while tossing only seven picks. Even while going through a cold streak during the game last week against the Panthers, he threw for 304 yards, three touchdowns (including the game-winner) and one pick. This week, he’ll go up against a pass defense that led the NFL with 23 interceptions, but at the same time was extremely vulnerable against the pass. The Bears allowed opponents to complete 66.6% of their passes at an average of 7.6 yards per attempt, they got torched by the Packers in the first half a week ago. They clamped down after halftime, though, giving hope that they can do the same against Stafford and Co.
- Chicago’s run game. After their Week 5 bye, the Bears had one of the most successful running games in the NFL. They tied for the NFL lead during that span with a 5.2 yards-per-carry average. They led the league with 2.16 yards per carry before contract, per Tru Media. They led the league with 45.6% of their rushes gaining five or more yards. They finished third in the league with 39 explosive runs. And their 47.4% rushing success rate was second in the league. Last week against Green Bay, though, the Bears didn’t run the ball well. They had a 29.2% rushing success rate, their second-worst mark of the season behind only the season opener against the Vikings. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai combined for 81 yards on 21 carries. The Rams allowed just 4.3 yards per carry this year, and gave up only 83 rushing yards against Carolina a week ago.
- Rams against the spread. As our John Breech noted, the Rams could be fighting against quite a bit of history if the spread on this game moves back to where it was earlier in the week. The line has dropped down to Rams -3.5, but it opened as -4.5, and as Breech noted, according to Pro Football Reference, there have only been 10 games over the past 50 years where a road team has been favored by four points or more in a playoff game, and it’s been ugly for the favored team in that situation. They went 0-10 against the spread, including the Rams, who didn’t cover against the Panthers. And they went 4-6 straight-up, with the three wins coming by an average of four points per game. If the spread moves back in their direction, this game will qualify for that list and the Rams would have to overcome some disadvantageous numbers.
Prediction
I picked the Rams to win the Super Bowl, so I’m obviously going to be picking them here. The Bears have been pulling rabbits out of their collective hats all season long, but I think that comes to an end against a team that looked like it was the best in the league for most of the year before stumbling a bit down the stretch. Chicago can’t play as poorly as it often does for stretches of the game and expect to come away with a win against L.A. — the Rams are too good on both sides of the ball for that, and we’ve seen that even if they do blow a lead, they have a trump card with Matthew Stafford and Co. In the end, I am again going to roll with the better quarterback’s team to win. Especially in what should be a high-scoring game.
Prediction: Rams 30, Bears 24
