Chelsea had Aston Villa right where they wanted them, that was until Unai Emery’s adjustments and brilliance from Ollie Watkins led the visitors to a 2-1 victory at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. Make no mistake, with this win is further proof that Villa are Premier League title contenders. Not picking up their first league win of the season until the end of September, facing Fulham, Villa have been unstoppable since, racking up 13 consecutive wins in all competitions, despite defying the numbers even in this match.
Chelsea may have only put three shots on goal, but they were able to generate 2.14 expected goals, most of which came from Joao Pedro’s goal from close range in the first half. In the second half, Watkins, Jadon Sancho, and Amadou Onana entered, and it changed everything for Villa. They scored both their goals, outshot Chelsea 11-4 and also had an xG of 1.40 to 0.16. Changes like that come right down to tactics, and there are few better at preparing a team of perceived underdogs to be competitive in a match than Unai Emery.
He’s taken down Arsenal, Manchester City, and now Chelsea in order to draw within three points of the Gunners as we turn to the new year. The title race is very much on, and even Villa’s numbers are beginning to improve as they have the fourth-best goal difference in the league, thanks to Emi Martinez and the defense allowing only 19 goals in 18 matches played this season. Scoring four goals while allowing two in their last two matches will do that, and it sets up quite a clash on the horizon. Villa can enter the new year top of the league if they can take down Arsenal again away at the Emirates Stadium on Dec. 30.
All eyes would already be on that match with Emery facing a team that he formerly coached, but when Villa haven’t won the league since 1981 before the Premier League was formed, and despite being an unlikely suspect outperforming their numbers on all fronts, it’s time to take Villa seriously. They’ve already taken large strides upon returning to the Champions League for next season, opening a seven-point lead over fourth-place Liverpool with their win on Saturday.
It has been a true team effort, but after the defense, winger Morgan Rodgers taking a step forward has gone a long way to powering this team. With seven goals and three assists, he is also pushing to represent England at the World Cup in 2026 and is certainly on the right track. With an upcoming schedule including Arsenal and Crystal Palace, Villa’s title credentials will continue to be tested during the upcoming stretch, but it’s nothing that Emery won’t have them prepared for.
Despite that, Villa’s manager is playing down their chances of winning the title, instead suggesting that his team are locked in a battle for fourth place.
“I am feeling that we are competing for Europe, not competing in the league with Man City and Arsenal,” Emery said. “We have played 18 matches and have 20 to play. Teams like Liverpool, Chelsea, and Manchester United — we must compete with them. We must be consistent over 38 matches.”
Making sure that his team doesn’t get ahead of themselves is something that makes sense, but even in a battle for Europe, Villa are in pole position. But numbers-wise, the title could be just beyond their reach.
On one hand, only Tottenham have had a similar 10-goal overperformance of their xG, like Aston Villa, but considering their reliance on set plays, it makes sense as to why that would happen. This has become the league of set plays as teams have ensured that they make the most of every goal-scoring opportunity, but Emery was doing it before it became the rage. A manager doesn’t coach four Europa League-winning sides without making the most of every opportunity, but if he’s able to win the Premier League, it’d be the biggest trophy of his career to date.
Villa are on track to do something special this season, and they have the leadership at the helm to get it done. With the January transfer window about to swing open, it’s also a chance to add reinforcements for what could be a stretch run for the ages.
