It is the primary North London derby ever performed outdoors the UK and it comes at a crucial juncture for each groups. It appears as if the hole between Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur is as vast because it has been in a technology, and the truth is it’s a must to return practically 50 years, to Spurs’ momentary sojourn within the second tier in 1977-78 for the final time as many positions separated them from their rivals down the Seven Sisters Street.
Arsenal ended 2024-25 within the acquainted place of second, whereas for Tottenham this proved to be a yr they flirted with each triumph and catastrophe, touchdown on a curious type of the latter by profitable the Europa League and ending in seventeenth, simply above the Premier League drop zone. The latter price Ange Postecoglou his job with Thomas Frank shortly alighted on because the substitute.
If the previous Brentford boss needs to shortly ingratiate himself to his new trustworthy then ending a six man winless streak towards the good enemy can be a really perfect method to start, even when it is simply in preseason. The North London derby tends to be one the place residence benefit pays off spectacularly — Arsenal are 15 years unbeaten in Premier League derbies on the Emirates Stadium — however proper now Spurs are on a 3 recreation dropping streak at their very own floor. Maybe Hong Kong’s impartial soil (and a pleasant match you possibly can watch reside on CBS Sports activities Golazo Community or Paramount+) will give them the encouragement that they’ll go on to match the Gunners within the larger assessments to return. For now this recreation alone affords fairly a useful measure of the progress Tottenham have or haven’t made this summer time, as their new boss acknowledged on Tuesday.
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“I feel it is an incredible problem apart from being our greatest rivals and the primary North London Derby outdoors the UK,” stated Frank. “It is also proper now among the finest groups, I have to say sadly, on the planet. We additionally have to be trustworthy. In that manner it will be a giant check, nevertheless it’s greater than a check as towards Arsenal it is not solely a pleasant. In fact it is a recreation we are going to do every little thing we are able to to win.”
Can Spurs actually hope to swing a 36 level hole again of their favor? What’s the restrict of what can realistically be anticipated of Frank’s new aspect and does it come anyplace near a worst case state of affairs for Arsenal? Learn on to seek out out.
Arsenal vs. Tottenham viewing data
- Date: Thursday, July 31 | Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Kai Tak Sports activities Park — Hong Kong
- Dwell stream: CBS Sports activities Golazo Community or Paramount+
- Odds: Arsenal -182; Draw +320; Tottenham +380
Arsenal’s flooring
There’s a honest argument to be made that what we noticed from Arsenal final season was not that a lot larger than a backside 10 p.c attainable end result for Arteta’s aspect. Devastated by accidents, Mikel Arteta obtained solely six league begins out of Gabriel Jesus, 20 from Bukayo Saka, 21 from Kai Havertz, 25 from Gabriel Martinelli and 26 from Martin Odegaard. That’s arguably Arsenal’s 5 most essential forwards, every lacking practically a 3rd of the season or extra. In such circumstances the Gunners pretty swiftly fell too far behind Liverpool to mount a compelling title problem, however even with a number of wobbles they have been by no means actually susceptible to slipping out of the highest 4.
Had Arteta had larger depth at his disposal maybe the Gunners may have saved on Liverpool’s heels and baited a number of wobbles from the champions. Definitely new sporting director Andrea Berta has moved to deal with that, a sextet of latest signings which means that there are two skilled, worldwide degree gamers for nearly each place. The one one the place that may not be the case is Martin Odegaard’s, the place Ethan Nwaneri at the moment figures to be the again up. Having one of many brightest younger prospects within the latest historical past of the Hale Finish academy is hardly to be sniffed at.
Arsenal know what their ceiling is: a Premier League title and/or Champions League. How far may they fall? Setting apart black swan occasions, as we are going to for Tottenham beneath, it’s laborious to make a lot of a case for the Gunners drifting outdoors the highest 4. A 3rd place end, that is fairly straightforward. Arsenal aren’t pretty much as good as they may be, Manchester Metropolis and Liverpool are.
Possibly you would add Chelsea to that blend too. After all of the Blues have been solely 5 factors again come the tip of final season and their anticipated objective distinction of 21.16 was not too far off Arsenal’s 26.55. Maybe Newcastle preserve Alexander Isak, do not get gazumped on each participant they need to signal and begin the season nicely. In these circumstances maybe the Gunners may drop into the Champions League bubble nevertheless it certainly cannot get any worse that that, can it?
*No, that was not an invite so that you can all go Mick McCarthy on me*
Tottenham’s ceiling
As for Spurs, their final season is a tough one to evaluate. For roughly the primary third of the marketing campaign, Postecoglou’s males received each recreation the place they have been the dominant aspect and obtained subsequent to nothing from the shut ones. Then got here a raft of accidents by way of the Tottenham protection extra brutal even than these Arsenal confronted of their assault, weeks on finish the place it was a outstanding stroke of fortune if two of the common again 5 may take the sector. By the point that each one eased Premier League hopes have been over, however the Europa League glistened temptingly on the horizon, so Postecoglou rightly concluded that it was higher to sacrifice a number of home video games when the opposite competitors supplied silverware and a path to the Champions League.
The mixture story for the league doesn’t look encouraging although. Seventeenth could have overexaggerated Spurs’ failings however their anticipated objective distinction was the fifteenth finest within the division, the 65 they conceded a excessive watermark of defensive failings overwhelmed solely by Wolves and the three relegated groups.
Tottenham appeared like a workforce that might rating three however may simply concede 4 and their switch enterprise this summer time has completed little to alter that. Mathys Tel’s mortgage has been made everlasting whereas Mohamed Kudus has been the marquee signing to date, arriving from West Ham. What funding has gone in to strengthening the protection seems to be for the long run with signings reminiscent of Kota Takai. Up to now the deep-lying midfielder that this squad so desperately wanted final season has not arrived.
It’s honest to imagine {that a} coach of Frank’s qualities will strengthen Spurs defensively, his Brentford aspect having truly allowed fewer xG per recreation over the previous 4 seasons than his new employers. Health alone ought to convey the defensive output again in direction of the remainder of the large six. However can Tottenham actually hope to catch their best rival?
The bookmakers would recommend not, rating Spurs as across the eighth most probably workforce to qualify for the Champions League. That appears a good estimation of the place their squad is now. There are vibrant younger issues like Future Udogie and Lucas Bergvall who may play a giant function on a high 4 workforce sooner or later after which veterans like Heung-min Son (ought to rumors of a transfer to Los Angeles not pan out) and Richarlison with loads of miles of their legs. Between them, there are perhaps solely a few key gamers rounding out into their prime at 24. The perfect of them, Micky van de Ven, struggles for availability.
Now maybe they get 38 video games from him and Cristian Romero. Maybe Son holds again the ageing tide and perhaps Frank’s teaching acumen makes up for the defensive limitations of his midfield choices. A high ten percentile season, in different phrases. What may be the ceiling then? Realistically it may be the cusp of Champions League rivalry, one that might be simpler if a number of extra of the large six fell off.
So, may Spurs’ ceiling take them larger than Arsenal’s flooring? In all probability not in a season that’s vaguely regular; it might require a really, excellent Tottenham marketing campaign to return concurrently lightning saved putting the Emirates Stadium. Nevertheless that is North London, part of the world that may ship a number of 5-2 derby comebacks in the identical yr. Unusual issues can occur.
