Arsenal in familiar, uncomfortable position as Premier League title race heats up

Arsenal will enter Christmas atop the Premier League following a 1-0 victory over Everton on Saturday. Yet again, the Gunners were able to go away from home to pick up points thanks to an early penalty put away by striker Viktor Gyokeres. It’s only the second goal in the last 11 appearances for the Swedish striker, as injuries have gotten in the way of him integrating into the side, but even with that, Arsenal’s defense, set play dominance, and timely scoring have been enough to ensure that they’ll maintain a two-point advantage over Manchester City.

But, this is also an advantage that was as large as six points just over a month ago. But in a tight Premier League race, one loss and two defeats in their last seven matches will be enough for the chasing pack to make this a race going into the holidays. Defensive injuries have helped open the door, but when Arsenal have finished as runners-up in the Premier League in three consecutive seasons, hearing the footsteps behind them is when the pressure will be on in the race for their first Premier League title since 2003-04.

Even as leading the league at Christmas will make it feel like a great position to be in, Mikel Arteta will know that there is much work left to do. In three of the last five seasons, Arsenal have entered Christmas leading the league, ultimately losing their advantage. Experience from coming up short is something that will sit with a squad that feels that their time is now, but almost reaching the halfway point of the Premier League season, it’s a good chance to look at the credentials of Arsenal and the small chasing pack.

Arsenal

They control their own destiny at this stage of the season, and while there’s usually more pressure on the team leading the league at this stage, Arsenal should be used to that pressure. Only allowing 10 goals in Premier League play, the Gunners have been able to create more room for error due to stopping their opponents from testing David Raya’s net. Their 31 goals scored are the second most in the Premier League, but this hardly feels like a dynamic attack due to spending significant time without Martin Odegaard, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, and Gyokeres this season. 

But as the festive period takes shape, all of those players except Havertz are back in the squad, and they’ve done a great job in pushing the attack forward. Arterta has options to change a game, and while the Gunners have had their issues away from home, they’ve controlled matches enough that even situations that seem like oncoming losses are ones that they’ll get the best of their foes in. All eyes will be on their fixture with Manchester City on April 18, but there’s plenty that needs to happen between now and then.

Manchester City

Back in November, City were seven points behind the Gunners and struggling to find their form with three losses in 10 matches played. Fast forward to now, and they’ve taken a joint-best 18 points from their seven matches played while scoring five goals more than anyone else in the league with 21 in that span while only conceding eight. As teams around the league have leaned on set pieces, City have taken on a throwback style of soccer because the big man Erling Haaland is up there somewhere. In 17 matches played, Haaland has scored 19 of City’s 41 goals, and after Phil Foden’s seven, no player has even five league goals for City despite their prolific attack. It’s essentially a one-man show, but that’s okay when the Norwegian is on a different level than any other striker in the league.

Rayan Cherki has found his own form since joining from Lyon, racking up six assists, and Jeremy Doku’s dribbling ability has made the attack hard to stop. Winners of five consecutive Premier League matches, City were my pick to win the league ahead of the season, and it’s hard to see anyone slowing them down from adding a fifth Premier League title in the past six seasons. They may struggle, but time and time again, Pep Guardiola has proven that the Premier League title is his, and occasionally other teams get to borrow it.

Aston Villa

Every title race needs an unlikely suspect, and this season, you have to look no further than Unai Emery’s Aston Villa side. It took four matches for Villa to get their first win of the season, triumphing over Fulham on Sept. 28, and they’ve only lost once since. Taking out City and Arsenal during that span, Villa have shown that they can hang with the top teams in the league, but entering Sunday six points back of Arsenal and with a game in hand, much of their title credentials will be on if they can defeat Manchester United. United will be without Amad Diallo and Bryan Mbuemo due to them being at the Africa Cup of Nations, which only adds to the reasons that Villa should keep things going, but Emery’s men have also heavily overperformed so far this season.

They’ve scored 25 goals from an xG of 17.08 and allowed 17 goals from an xG against of 22.07. If either of those evens out during the season, and a major gap could open atop the table. On the bright side, Villa lead fourth-place Chelsea by four points, and that could already be enough to secure Champions League soccer next season. While they wouldn’t complain with a league title, that would already accomplish the goal for a team who are happy to be here at this stage in what is truly a two team race for the league title.

Current Premier League top half 

As of Dec. 20