On Monday, July 17, the Chicago Cubs misplaced to the last-place Washington Nationals. The loss dropped the Cubs to 43-50, 8 1/2 video games out in each the NL Central and from the third and ultimate NL Wild Card. That is completely “promote” vary in entrance of the commerce deadline, which was nearly two weeks away.
As an alternative, right here we’re a number of hours after the deadline and the Cubs have been really consumers. What occurred in between to alter the calculus was loads of successful together with some assist from others — specifically, the Diamondbacks, Marlins and Giants — who did loads of dropping. The Cubs went 10-3 and entered the deadline 5 video games again within the NL Central and solely 3 1/2 out of the third and ultimate NL wild-card spot.
I am positive some disagree, however that is completely “purchase” territory. You certainly do not promote, which implies there was no means Cubs president Jed Hoyer and firm may look to benefit from a sellers’ market.
It’s going to be fascinating when the mud settles on the 2023 season to see how the Cubs fared right here within the final two weeks, however I consider the trail they took was the right one for the long-term well being of the group.
Would promoting have actually been significantly better?
For weeks, we heard about how the Cubs had two glorious commerce chips in former MVP Cody Bellinger and All-Star beginning pitcher Marcus Stroman. If a sell-off was occurring, maybe some worth may have been extracted from the likes of Kyle Hendricks, Yan Gomes and Drew Smyly, too. This nonetheless left in place cornerstones like Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner whereas additionally including to the farm system and searching forward.
One problem is that filler prospects for gamers like Gomes and Smyly virtually by no means find yourself amounting to something however organizational depth, so it could be buying and selling for the sake of buying and selling with everybody besides Stroman and Bellinger.
It needs to be famous that Stroman did some mighty nice work in crushing his personal commerce worth the final a number of weeks, compiling a 9.00 ERA in his final seven begins. I believe he’d nonetheless have introduced one thing again, nevertheless it hardly would’ve been a coup for the franchise.
Bellinger is taking part in a few of his finest baseball since successful the 2019 MVP. There have been hardly any high quality bats accessible on the commerce market, so the argument for promoting boils right down to the Cubs touchdown a giant package deal in return for Bellinger and hoping there was nonetheless a fairly good marketplace for Stroman.
The humorous factor is, the Cubs simply traded a former MVP throughout an All-Star season. Kris Bryant in 2021 introduced again Alexander Canario and Caleb Killian. Neither has ever been ranked by a significant outlet as a top-100 prospect. Killian is now 26 and has fared terribly in his 4 MLB appearances. Canario had a giant energy season in 2022 however suffered a critical harm late final yr and has performed in 13 video games for Triple-A Iowa this yr (hitting .220/.316/.320).
Each may nonetheless pan out, however they’re primarily lottery tickets.
With the Cubs solely 3 1/2 video games out of a playoff spot on the deadline, you would be laborious pressed to persuade me the group completely had so as to add one thing like, what, three or 4 respectable prospects for Bellinger and Stroman on the expense of the big-league workforce pushing relevance. In the event you may assure a Juan Soto package deal, possibly, however this wasn’t even near that state of affairs.
Brief-term features
The argument in opposition to shopping for and for promoting would revolve across the Cubs’ low playoff odds for this season. It is a waste of sources to try to make the playoffs in case you solely have a 24.5% likelihood [per Fangraphs] to make the playoffs, the argument goes.
Man, I am so sick and uninterested in this thought course of. It is not a zero % likelihood. It is not 5 or 10. Why dismiss a one in 4 likelihood prefer it’s some type of pie-in-the-sky fantasy? Not solely that, however how are postseason odds such an authority on how a workforce ought to act? What a bunch of nonsense.
The Cubs are taking part in nice baseball proper now. The followers in Wrigley Discipline are again into the workforce like they have not been in a number of years. They’re having enjoyable. Should not that rely for one thing? It makes a free-agent sell-job to future gamers a lot simpler — that’s, displaying potential free brokers how a lot enjoyable it could be to play in a state of affairs the place the workforce is critical about successful and the followers are popping out in droves to assist the workforce. It is a hell of rather a lot higher than attempting to persuade gamers to signal after veterans are offered off on the commerce deadline whereas completely inside an inexpensive distance of rivalry.
It takes some huge cash too, in fact, and the Cubs have that. They need to be capable to proceed spending cash in free company the subsequent a number of seasons similar to they did this previous offseason.
Let’s additionally remember the fact that after a tricky schedule this week, 5 of the next six collection are in opposition to sub-.500 groups. They’ve an actual likelihood to make a transfer right here.
As if it weren’t crystal clear up to now, sure, I used to be completely in opposition to the Cubs being sellers as soon as they crawled to inside rivalry. I completely detest the thought of giving up with two months left when in hanging distance within the hope of prospects panning out when it has been confirmed a big proportion do not. It is true. Baseball America published an article Tuesday noting that roughly 20% of prospects traded on the deadline have a big-league profession of consequence.
Now that we have arrived at “the Cubs mustn’t promote” as a conclusion, the subsequent cheap conclusion is they need to purchase. Given the place they’re with the farm system and the big-league roster, although, they have been additionally moderately within the vary that this known as for an “add on the margins” job with a scalpel moderately than going all out to win all of it, like in 2016 and the following few years.
The most important gap on the roster was first base. The Cubs added Jeimer Candelario to be the on a regular basis first baseman. They might’ve used some bullpen depth, so that they added Jose Cuas.
These strikes may not be sufficient to push the Cubs into the playoffs. Hell, they in all probability aren’t. I believe they wanted extra bullpen depth and the offense nonetheless in all probability lacks a bit punch. Taking part in significant baseball in September for the primary time since 2019 can assist propel them into a much bigger transfer in 2024, although, and that should not be discounted.
Backside line
I have been vital of Hoyer prior to now — lower than two months in the past, the truth is — however he appeared to do all he may right here with the hand he was dealt. After all, he was dealt loads of this hand by his personal doing, however it could’ve been far simpler on him if the workforce stored taking part in terribly and he was justified in buying and selling Bellinger and extra.
Finally, my intestine feeling is the latest sizzling streak and the prospect to parlay down-the-stretch success into extra upward motion in 2024 and past was way more useful for the franchise than no matter a Bellinger and Stroman sell-off was going to carry. Name it a reasonably profitable deadline with eyes towards the continued enchancment with the big-league roster in 2024.
