From Bournemouth to Brentford via Brighton and who knows which places in between, great swathes of the south of England will be united by one simple wish on Friday, that Liverpool win a football match. It’s like 1980s glory hunters all over again.
With two rounds of games left in the Premier League, the European places are a joyous mess. As ever, fourth place will gain an English side qualification for the Champions League league phase. This season, as a reward for their clubs’ achievements on the continent, so will fifth. Where it gets a little more fiddly is what happens if Aston Villa land there and win the Europa League.
In that scenario, Unai Emery’s side would have qualified twice for the big leagues. Another spot would open up for the Premier League side who finished sixth, and what a scrap that is shaping up to be. Bournemouth are currently in control but have a tricky final home game against title-chasing Manchester City. A loss to Pep Guardiola’s men last time out means Brentford have four points to make up in two games, and as such Brighton might be able to sneak into sixth in their games against Leeds and Manchester United.
Whether that delivers a Europa or Champions League berth will at least partly depend on whether Unai Emery can do what Unai Emery does and lift another Europa League trophy on Wednesday against Freiburg. Winning that could result in them doing a favor to the teams below them, though only if they don’t leapfrog fourth-placed Liverpool both by beating them at Villa Park and getting a point or better at Manchester City.
Beating Liverpool might require a significant upswing in performances, given what Villa have been serving up in the Premier League over recent weeks. Since the turn of the year, a side that were once spoken of as title contenders have earned just 20 points from 17 games. The nearer you get to the spring, the worse the picture looks. A 2-2 draw at already relegated Burnley meant it was eight from the last nine; only Chelsea and the Clarets have a worse return in that time period.
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Curiously, their expected goal trends would suggest this is not a team that is vastly different to the one that was rattling off wins over Christmas. The attack has slowed down a fair bit of late, perhaps a reflection of the huge minutes burden on Morgan Rogers, whose 4382 minutes across 53 games puts him eighth for minutes played across all competitions in Europe’s top five leagues. Injuries in midfield, too, have hindered Emery, who will have to do without Amadou Onana, Alysson and Boubacar Kamara for the visit of Liverpool. Villa have rotated somewhat of late, most notably in their loss to Tottenham, and it remains to be seen if this might be a weakened team for the final home game of the season, as focus drifts to the meeting with Bundesliga side Freiburg in Istanbul.
“The reason [for the drop in form], we must analyse deeply at the end of the season,” said Emery, who has struggled to deliver key results down the stretch in many of his years managing in the Premier League. “But my objective is to compete in different competitions at our best level and to have enough players, enough mentality to play and fight in the Premier League with the best teams and try to get our best position like we are doing.”
If Villa do indeed get their best position — likely fourth given the goal difference advantage, Manchester United in third have — then all the aforementioned permutations involving the B teams head out the window. Liverpool would slip down to fifth and be thankful it is one of those years where the Premier League flexed its muscles across all three European competitions. That there would still be Champions League football next season helps ease the pressure on Arne Slot, who insisted on Thursday that he was not feeling the pressure of a down year after the title triumph he delivered in his first season on Merseyside.
“I don’t think I am deciding that alone by myself, but I have every reason to believe I am the Liverpool manager next season,” he said. “First of all, I am contracted to this club, and second of all, from all the talks we are having. That is my take on it.
“If you don’t have the best season, especially if you compare with last season, if you compare it with other seasons, you might have a different debate, but if you compare it with last season, this has definitely not been a great season, then it is also normal that criticism comes. We have all had our share, and with all, I mean the players have had their share, the manager has had their share and other people in the club have had their share. That is how things work nowadays if you don’t win the league.”
Slot confirmed he had been involved in discussions with summer transfer targets with plenty more work to be done even after the half-a-billion-dollar splurge of the summer. Mohamed Salah and Andrew Robertson will need replacing as might Alisson, who is a target for Juventus. The Brazilian is a doubt for the trip to Villa Park through injury, but Florian Wirtz could shake off a stomach bug to feature while Ibrahima Konate and Mohamed Salah are available, the latter “for only a few minutes”.
Though his job might be safe for the moment it would do Slot no favors to stagger into the Champions League through a relative backdoor. Liverpool finishing their season on a high and securing top four might have real value for their current manager. It’s just it could well have altogether more for a few other teams just behind them in the Premier League table.
How to watch Aston Villa vs. Liverpool, odds
- Date: Friday, May 15 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Villa Park — Birmingham, United Kingdom
- TV: NBC SN
- Odds: Aston Villa +190; Draw +260; Liverpool +125
