The 2026 Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday at 6:57 p.m. ET at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., with post position playing a major role in how bettors are sizing up the field. Arkansas Derby winner Renegade drew the No. 1 post and enters as the 4-1 morning-line favorite, seeking to become the first horse in 40 years to win the Derby from the rail. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the latest TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS to claim up to $400 in bonus bets here, double what’s available to the general public:
Three other horses carry single-digit odds, including Commandment (6-1), who is the half-brother of Renegade and arrives off four straight wins, including the G1 Florida Derby, Further Ado (6-1), who crushed the Blue Grass Stakes field by 11 lengths, and Chief Wallabee (8-1), trained by reigning Derby-winning trainer Bill Mott. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years. He also predicted the top three 2025 Kentucky Derby finishers in the correct order and hit a $1,682 supefecta, and then went on to nail the exacta in last year’s Preakness. Anyone who has followed him on horse racing betting sites could be way up.
Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby post time rapidly approaching, Demling is sharing his 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis
One of Demling’s surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading on the 4-1 favorite in Renegade. Only three horses that won the Arkansas Derby have ever gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, with American Pharoah in 2015 being the last to do it. Before that, you have to go back to Smarty Jones in 2004 and Sunny’s Halo in 1983. That is a thin track record, and it is not lost on Demling as he looks for value elsewhere in the field.
The post position only adds to Demling’s skepticism. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from post No. 1 since Ferdinand in 1986, and breaking from the rail in a 20-horse field creates the kind of traffic trouble that has tripped up Renegade before. He faded late against Paladin at the 2025 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct and again in a maiden special weight at Belmont at Aqueduct in October, showing a pattern of struggling when caught in tight quarters down the stretch. See who to back at SportsLine.
Demling also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby prediction for Commandment, who is the half-brother of Renegade and is listed at 6-1 in the Kentucky Derby odds. Although the Brad H. Cox-trained horse is one of the top-three favorites at 6-1, Demling doesn’t have him winning the 2026 Kentucky Derby. Commandment has never finished lower than fourth, and has been on a bit of a roll.
He has won each of his last four races, including the 2026 Florida Derby on March 28. He is known for his speed up-front, but questions remain on whether he has the closing speed to be able to win the Derby. In a sport where every inch matters, does Commandment have what it takes to outlast the field at the 1¼-mile track? Bet the Kentucky Derby with the latest FanDuel Racing promo, which lets users bet $5 and get $25 in bonuses:
Demling has also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby picks for Further Ado (6-1). While the Brad Cox-trained colt makes Demling’s considering for Kentucky Derby exacta and trifecta picks, he doesn’t have him pegged as the winner. Further Ado has been impressive lately, winning three of his last four starts, capped off by a dominant victory in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in Lexington. He blew away the field with an elite Speed Score of 127. That said, it’s a number that stands out sharply compared to his previous two big race figures (109 and 104), which offers Demling pause as to how much to trust the latest run. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby bets at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is also high on a longshot who “demolished the field” in his last start. Anyone who backs this colt could hit it big. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 12 Derby-Oaks doubles.
