The last eight teams in the UEFA Champions League make for a formidable group but as the road to the May 31 final at Budapest’s Puskas Arena approaches, a batch are set to be knocked out in the coming weeks as several high-caliber matchups await in the quarterfinals.
Four of the last six Champions League-winning teams make up the quarterfinalists, each of them set to face off against each other. The headlining act is Real Madrid’s clash with Bayern Munich, which sees a perennial threat match up with one of the favorites to win the competition. Reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain, meanwhile, take on Liverpool in a rematch of last season’s thrilling round of 16 tie.
The action is rounded out by Barcelona’s meeting with Atletico Madrid and Arsenal’s faceoff with Sporting Lisbon, each of them compelling in their own right. Not all of these quarterfinal matchups are created equal, though; some more likely to be straightforward than others. A trip to the semifinals, as a result, is easier to predict for some heavyweights than it will be for the rest. If the goalscoring frenzy that was last month’s round of 16 proves anything, though, there is room to expect the unexpected with semifinal berths up for grabs.
With that said, let’s rank the Champions League quarterfinals by upset potential from least likely to most likely:
Champions League quarterfinals first leg schedule
All times U.S./Eastern and all games streamed on Paramount+
Tuesday, April 7
Sporting Lisbon vs. Arsenal, 3 p.m.
Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich, 3 p.m
Wednesday, April 8
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Liverpool, 3 p.m.
Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid, 3 p.m.
4. Arsenal vs. Sporting Lisbon
Favorites: Arsenal
Between a loss to Manchester City in the EFL Cup final and a surprise defeat to Southampton in the FA Cup, Arsenal have had a rough go of things in recent weeks. That said, there’s no disguising the fact that they are still the favorites to win this competition and have the benefit of the quarterfinals’ most favorable draw – this season’s Cinderella story, Sporting Lisbon. This tie is as good an opportunity as any for the Gunners to return to winning ways and considering they can overmatch Sporting in just about every category, expect them to do so and keep things simple as they target a second straight berth in the semifinals.
3. Liverpool vs. Paris Saint-Germain
Favorites: Paris Saint-Germain
A year ago, Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain went toe-to-toe and needed a penalty shootout to decide who would advance, the latter arguably staking their claim as eventual champions at Anfield. This time around, the Reds may still have plenty of star quality but decent form eludes them – they have just one win in their last five and Saturday’s 4-0 thumping by Manchester City in the FA Cup only continued the bleeding. They are not necessarily out of the running in the quarterfinals but PSG are going to be hard to beat, especially after getting the weekend off, and their 8-2 aggregate pummeling of Chelsea in the round of 16 indicates that the reigning champions may just be peaking at the right time.
2. Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid
Favorites: Bayern Munich
It is hard to truly count out Real Madrid, especially after they creamed Manchester City 5-1 on aggregate in the round of 16. Bayern Munich, though, are as consistent as it gets and are Arsenal’s greatest challenger for the title this season. While much has been made of their goalscoring exploits, Vincent Kompany’s side now one goal shy of the Bundesliga’s single-season goalscoring record, but he has built a team that is also organized in defense. It is an impressive tactical balance that eludes Real Madrid, who have plenty of quality but are inconsistent regardless of how many members of their star-studded attack are on the pitch.
1. Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona
Favorites: Barcelona
Seven points clear atop LaLiga, Barcelona’s attributes are hard to miss and there is little reason to count out a team that boasts Lamine Yamal. Hansi Flick’s side also has some clear weaknesses, though, ones that become magnified when Raphinha cannot take part. The Brazil international will miss both legs with a hamstring injury and his outsized presence will be missed by Barcelona – he has 11 goals and three assists in just 912 minutes this season, his average of a goal contribution roughly every 65 minutes better than Lamine Yamal’s tally of one every 90 minutes. Perhaps more importantly, their win percentage shrinks from 85.2% to 58.3% without him, providing an opening for Atletico Madrid to take advantage of a Barcelona team that is known for their defensive lapses. If there’s one team who is most likely to pull off the upset en route to the semifinals, it is Atleti, currently led by an in-form Julian Alvarez.
