Adobe Will Soon Get a New CEO. Should You Buy ADBE Stock First?

Leadership changes rarely arrive quietly in Silicon Valley. And now, a big one may be unfolding at Adobe (ADBE). The creative software giant just reported better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, but the real headline came from the corner office.

Longtime CEO Shantanu Narayen announced he will step down after nearly two decades leading the company, surprising investors and Wall Street alike. He has spent almost 30 years at Adobe and 18 years as its chief executive, and will remain in the role until a successor is named and will continue as chairman to guide the transition. During his tenure, he helped transform Adobe from a traditional software maker into a cloud-powered creative powerhouse. The shift paid off handsomely, with Adobe’s stock soaring over 600% through the past two decades, easily outpacing the broader market.

But the landscape today looks very different. In 2026, Adobe’s shares have struggled, falling about 27.7% so far this year as investors grow uneasy about the rapid rise of generative AI. Some fear new artificial intelligence (AI)-driven tools could disrupt parts of Adobe’s core creative software business.

That’s why the leadership transition is drawing close scrutiny. With the longtime CEO preparing to step down, the next chief will need to convince investors that Adobe can still lead in the fast-changing AI era – a concern that triggered the stock to slide 7% even after strong quarterly results.

With the stock now trading at a much cheaper valuation, is this a buying opportunity before Adobe begins its next chapter?

Based in San Jose, California, Adobe is one of the world’s most recognized software companies, powering digital creativity. Founded in 1982 by John Warnock and Charles Geschke, Adobe built its reputation by creating tools that help people design, edit, and share digital content. Over the years, the company has introduced several groundbreaking technologies, including PostScript printing, the iconic Photoshop software, and the widely used PDF format. Also, Adobe runs Experience Cloud, a suite of marketing and analytics solutions for businesses.

Today, Adobe serves millions of users worldwide, including students and independent creators to professional designers and large enterprises. Adobe has stepped firmly into the AI era with its Firefly generative models, which have already produced billions of images. Currently, the company carries a market capitalization of about $102.3 billion.

While Adobe is pushing hard into AI, the same enthusiasm has not shown up in its stock price. Shares have remained under pressure as investors question whether Adobe will truly lead in AI, or if new AI-powered tools could slowly erode its long-standing dominance in creative software.

Amid that uncertainty, ADBE has slipped about 43.5% over the past five years, while the decline has deepened more recently, down 48.6% over the past two years, and 36% over the past 52 weeks. Additionally, the stock has fallen 40% from its May high of $422.95.

Pressure on Adobe intensified after the Q1 report when news broke that the CEO would step down. Despite strong results, AI competition and leadership uncertainty kept investors cautious, pushing the stock lower.

Technically, Adobe is showing a few early signs of stabilization after the recent sell-off. Trading activity has picked up, with rising green volume bars suggesting that buyers are gradually stepping back into the stock. Momentum indicators are also beginning to shift. The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, typically seen as a bullish signal that downside pressure may be easing.

Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from the oversold levels seen in February, reflecting improving momentum. However, the RSI has recently pulled back to 36.9, indicating that the stock remains in a weak zone and sentiment is still fragile.

When it comes to valuation, Adobe looks surprisingly cheap for a company of its scale. The stock, priced at 10.6 times forward adjusted earnings, sits well below its historical median. For a business that still dominates creative software and generates massive cash flow, that multiple looks unusually low.

In many ways, the market appears to be pricing in a worst-case scenario; fears that AI could weaken Adobe’s pricing power and that a CEO transition might disrupt the company’s momentum. Yet the fundamentals tell a different story.

Adobe’s business continues to grow steadily, with strong cash generation and rapidly expanding AI-driven revenue. This disconnect between performance and price makes the current valuation look like a notable discount.

The company’s fiscal first-quarter 2026 results, announced on March 12, suggest it is off to a strong start. Adobe delivered record Q1 revenue of $6.40 billion, up 12% year-over-year (YOY), while non-GAAP earnings climbed 19.3% annually to $6.06 per share, comfortably beating Wall Street’s expectations. Much of the momentum came from the company’s subscription engine, which continues to power its business model. Total subscription revenue reached $6.2 billion, rising 13% YOY.

Digging a little deeper, the numbers tell an interesting story. Adobe’s Business Professionals and Consumers segment generated $1.78 billion in subscription revenue, growing 16%, as everyday users increasingly adopt its productivity and document tools. Meanwhile, the company’s core Creative and Marketing Professionals segment brought in $4.39 billion, up 12%, showing that demand from designers, creators, and enterprises remains strong.

But the most closely watched number may be Adobe’s AI-first annual recurring revenue, which more than tripled annually. That surge signals that the company’s push into AI – through tools designed to enhance creativity, productivity, and marketing workflows – is beginning to gain real traction. Overall, Adobe exited the quarter with $26.06 billion in ARR, underscoring the scale and stability of its subscription ecosystem.

Remaining Performance Obligations stood at $22.22 billion, giving investors a clear view of revenue already locked in for future periods, while current RPO (cRPO) accounts for about 67%.

Cash generation remained strong. Non-GAAP operating income reached $3.04 billion, while cash flow from operations hit a record $2.96 billion during the quarter. Adobe also continued returning capital to shareholders, repurchasing roughly 8.1 million shares during the period. The balance sheet strengthened as well. Cash and cash equivalents rose to $6.3 billion as of Feb. 27, 2026, up from $5.4 billion at the end of November, while total debt declined to about $5.4 billion, signaling steady financial discipline.

Looking ahead, the management expects the momentum to continue into Q2. Total revenue is anticipated to be between $6.43 billion and $6.48 billion. Within that, Business Professionals & Consumers subscription revenue is projected between $1.80 billion and $1.82 billion, while Creative & Marketing Professionals subscription revenue is expected to land between $4.41 billion and $4.44 billion. Non-GAAP EPS is anticipated to come in between $5.80 and $5.85, suggesting steady growth as Adobe continues expanding its subscription and AI-driven offerings.

Analysts tracking Adobe expect the company’s profit to reach $18.97 per share in fiscal 2026, up 10.3% YOY, and grow another 13.9% to $21.61 per share in fiscal 2027.

Wall Street is watching the leadership transition closely, and analysts have mixed views about what it could mean for the company’s future. For many, the timing of CEO Shantanu Narayen’s planned departure is a surprise. After all, Narayen has spent decades at Adobe.

William Blair’s analyst Arjun Bhatia noted that the transition comes at a particularly sensitive moment, as Adobe navigates sweeping changes driven by AI. According to Bhatia, the next chief executive will face high expectations from investors, especially when it comes to proving that Adobe can stay competitive in the fast-moving AI landscape. Despite the uncertainty, he remains optimistic and maintains an “Outperform” rating on the stock.

Still, the company faces an important decision as to whether to promote someone internally or bring in an outside leader with strong AI credentials to rebuild investor confidence. Not all analysts are convinced, though. Jackson Ader of KeyBanc Capital Markets pointed out that Adobe’s stock now looks quite cheap on several valuation metrics. He cut his price target to $235 from $310 while maintaining an “Underweight” rating, pointing out that Adobe’s current guidance suggests flat new ARR for the year. In his view, the board may ultimately decide that taking a bold swing on leadership could be worth the risk given the stock’s already depressed valuation.

Adobe stock has a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating overall. Out of the 37 analysts covering the stock, 16 recommend a “Strong Buy,” two advise a “Moderate Buy,” 15 suggest a “Hold,” and the remaining four give a “Strong Sell” rating.

The mean price target of $392.73 suggests upside potential of 55.4% from the current price levels. The Street-high target price of $660 for Adobe implies the stock could rally as much as 161%.

On the date of publication, Sristi Suman Jayaswal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com