While technically an upset, seeing a No. 9 seed defeat a No. 8 seed in the NCAA College Basketball Tournament certainly isn’t uncommon. It happened in three of the four matchups two years ago, and two teams (Creighton and Baylor) completed the task last season.
Ninth-seeded teams have beaten No. 8 seeds at least once in each of the last nine tournaments. They won all four matchups in 2019 and have posted three victories four times in that stretch. The No. 8 seed hasn’t gone 4-0 since 2015.
In fact, No. 9 seeds are 83-77 since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
Let’s break down the 8-9 matchups in this year’s NCAA Tournament and determine which teams the Inside the Lines team’s projection model gives the best chance to pull off the mild upset and advance to the second round.
9 vs. 8 upset rankings
These are ordered from least likely to most likely.
4. TCU over Ohio State
Both teams made early exits in their respective conference tournaments, as TCU lost to Kansas in the Big 12 quarterfinals and Ohio State was beaten by Michigan in the same round of the Big Ten tourney. The Horned Frogs had their six-game winning streak halted with the loss, while the Buckeyes won four straight prior to their defeat.
TCU has yet to beat Ohio State, losing all four of their all-time meetings. The ITL team’s projection model doesn’t see the Horned Frogs ending their skid in the series as its simulations say they win only 29% of the time. It is calling for Ohio State to post a 7-point victory.
3. Utah State over Villanova
The Wildcats have gone 9-3 over their last 12 games but have been mediocre of late, splitting their past six contests. In its most recent outing, Villanova suffered a 78-64 setback against Georgetown in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament.
Conversely, Utah State enters this matchup with a four-game winning streak and a 13-3 record over its last 16 contests. The Aggies defeated San Diego State 73-62 last weekend to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament for the third time in school history.
However, Utah State has made a first-round exit in 10 of its last 11 appearances in the NCAA Tournament, while Villanova has won eight straight opening-round games, which is the third-longest active streak in the nation. As a result, the ITL team’s model is siding with the Wildcats as the Aggies win in just 44% of its simulations.
2. Saint Louis over Georgia
Neither the Billikens nor the Bulldogs has been playing particularly well of late. Saint Louis has gone 4-4 since posting an 18-game winning streak and is coming off a loss to Dayton in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament. Georgia is 6-7 in its last 13 contests, 9-9 since its season-best seven-game winning streak, and was beaten by Ole Miss in the second round of the SEC tourney.
The Billikens are making their first appearance in the NCAA Tournament since 2019, when they had their three-game winning streak in the first round halted by Virginia Tech. Georgia enters with a five-game losing streak in the tournament that includes four straight first-round defeats.
The Bulldogs have made first-round exits in six of their last seven appearances, which is one reason the ITL team’s model gives Saint Louis a 52% chance of advancing to the second round.
1. Iowa over Clemson
The Tigers were superb over the first three-plus months of the season, winning 20 of their first 24 games. They then had some difficulties, losing five of six contests, but appeared to get back on track with three consecutive victories before being defeated by Duke in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament last Friday.
Iowa has had problems of its own, dropping seven of its last 10 games — including four of the past five. However, the Hawkeyes lost to a top 10 team in Nebraska in their regular-season finale and beat Maryland in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament before being edged 72-69 by Ohio State.
Clemson has made a first-round exit in seven of its last nine appearances in the NCAA Tournament, while Iowa has done so in each of its past two trips. But the Hawkeyes won four consecutive first-round games prior to that, and the ITL team’s model likes their chances to post another victory this year as its simulations have them winning 57% of the time.
