Michael Carrick has three wins out of three to start his tenure as Manchester United’s head coach, this time with a dramatic 3-2 win against Fulham on Sunday that allowed the Red Devils to assert themselves as contenders to finish inside the Premier League’s top four.
In a back-and-forth affair against Fulham, United took a 2-0 lead by the 56th minute thanks to goals from Casemiro and Matheus Cunha, though the visitors had essentially gone toe-to-toe with Carrick’s side for much of the game. Fulham had outshot United nine to six just before Cunha scored, and the teams were almost level on expected goals – United had 0.89 xG tallied by that point, while Fulham clocked in at 0.8. The Cottagers continued to go toe-to-toe with the hosts even after going two goals down – both teams had 12 shots each by the 84th minute, though United edged out Fulham at that point with 1.58 xG to 1.14.
Fulham finally reaped the rewards for their effort with two goals in six minutes. Harry Maguire was booked for a challenge on Raul Jimenez, who converted a penalty in the 85th minute after a stutter-step routine, while Kevin notched the equalizer in the first minute of stoppage time in stunning fashion. He received the ball on the left flank and then played it to Ryan Sessegnon, who quickly sent it his way before Kevin took a shot from the corner of the penalty area, beating Senne Lammens in the process.
United, though, scored a game-winner three minutes later with their final shot of the game. Bruno Fernandes, with his second assist of the day, won the ball near the right endline and sent it towards Benjamin Sesko, who was making a run into the box. Sesko received the ball at the penalty spot but took a heavy touch so the ball drifted away from him, though he ran towards it and then took a shot while turning and nabbed his fifth Premier League goal of the season in the process.
United’s strong start under Carrick, which included surprise wins against Manchester City and Arsenal, thrust them into fourth place, rising from seventh place before the ex-United player took charge in the days after Ruben Amorim’s firing. They currently boast a one-point lead over Chelsea and a two-point advantage over Liverpool with 14 games to go.
Carrick has benefitted from inheriting one of the Premier League’s top attacks this season – by the time Amorim left the club, the Red Devils ranked third for goals scored with 34 in 20 matches and 36.14 expected goals. In some sense, their attacking output has not changed all that much – they average 1.6 expected goals per game so far under Carrick, slightly below their Premier League average all season of 1.8 xG. They have truly overperformed in that category in the last three games, though, averaging 2.7 goals per game since Carrick took over when their average for the season 1.8 goals. Cunha, in particular has been in good form under Carrick with a goal contribution in each of his matches.
Whether or not there is a so-called Carrick effect is hard to determine, though. Signs point to their improvement starting back on Matchday 13. Though the foes he has faced so far have been of a high caliber, one could also make the argument that United lucked out that the City team they faced was – and still is – inconsistent, their loss in the Manchester derby a mess of their own making. The same was perhaps true for Arsenal, who crumbled at one of the first signs of adversity in a title charge that has otherwise been remarkably smooth. Fulham, meanwhile, actually beat United on expected goals on Sunday when all was said and done, the Cottagers generating 1.97 xG from 14 shots while the Red Devils trailed just behind with 1.74 xG from 13 attempts.
The jury’s still out on what Carrick’s spin on United will look like, though his strong start will likely allow him some wiggle room as he figures things out. He, at the very least, seems to have created a positive environment for a group of players who have not strayed off course all that much during a campaign in which they can put last season’s disappointment in the rearview mirror.
“He’s said this many, many times,” Sesko said post-match of Carrick’s insistence that players should enjoy competing for United. “It’s not just that. You can see without the ball how hard we work and it’s working out in the end. Everyone is on point, covering the space, everything. In the end, that’s what counts.”
Carrick’s United, though, are now well-positioned to go on a run that should afford them some cushion in a still-competitive race for the UEFA Champions League spots. Five of their next six opponents in Premier League play are in the lower half of the table, including upcoming fixtures against a completely out-of-form Tottenham Hotspur and relegation contenders West Ham United.
