The Denver Broncos are the top seed in the AFC but are now the longshot among the remaining four teams to win the Super Bowl, and it all comes down to the season-ending ankle injury suffered by starting quarterback Bo Nix. The Broncos (15-3) beat the Buffalo Bills 33-30 in overtime in the Divisional Round, but it was revealed after the game that Nix needs surgery for a broken bone in his ankle. Denver entered the NFL Playoffs as the +650 third favorite to win the Super Bowl — and top choice from the AFC — in DraftKings’ Super Bowl futures. Now, the Broncos are +1100, with the NFC’s Seattle Seahawks (+145) and Los Angeles Rams (+230) the favorites and the new England Patriots (+250) becoming the clear AFC choice.
The Nix injury also flipped the spread on Broncos vs. Patriots in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game, set for 3 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. The Broncos were set to be 1.5-point home favorites in lookahead projections, but now New England is a 4.5-point favorite at DraftKings. The Over/Under is 42.5 total points scored as it’s expected to be a more defense-oriented game. The Patriots are -251 money line favorites with the Broncos priced at +206.
The NFC Championship Game on Sunday, scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET on Fox, is the third matchup of the 2025 NFL season between division foes. NFC West champions and No. 1 seed Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams, with the winner expected to be favored to win Super Bowl 60. The teams split their two regular-season meetings, with the home team winning each time. The Seahawks are 2.5-point favorites, with DraftKings setting the Over/Under at 46.5. Seattle is a -154 favorite, and Los Angeles is priced as a +129 money-line underdog.
Here, we will break down the NFL Conference Championships odds and how they have been affected since lines first opened, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patriots vs. Broncos (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET)
Denver is covering in 58% of the SportsLine model’s simulations. Bet the spread at DraftKings:
The Broncos are going to have to win with a strong running game and a great defense, as Jarrett Stidham will be stepping in for Nix, and the sixth-year pro has just four career starts. The good news is that running back RJ Harvey has 896 total yards at 12 total TDs in his rookie season, and J.K. Dobbins (772 rushing yards in 10 games) has been practicing on a limited basis after a long IR stint. The better news is the Denver defense led the league in sacks in the regular season with 68 (four per game) and has been the driving force for this team all season. The bad news is that New England has one of the NFL’s best run defenses, ranking fifth at 101.7 yards per game in the regular season. The Patriots also had the second-highest scoring offense, averaging 28.8 points per game. But the Broncos had the third-best scoring defense (18.3) and are going to make life tough on Pats QB Drake Maye. The fans at Mile High are sure to do their part as well. The SportsLine model is expecting more from the Broncos than oddsmakers are, with Denver covering the spread 58% of the time and winning outright 46% of the time. At a price of +204, the model loves the Broncos on the money line, giving the pick an “A” grade. The public has been hitting the Patriots hard, with about 75% of spread bets at DraftKings on New England, dropping the spread to 4.5. The total has bumped up, moving two points with the public likely expecting the Stidham-led offense to provide more chances for Maye and the Pats to add points.
Rams at Seahawks (Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET)
- Open: Seahawks -2.5, O/U 47.5
- Now: Seahawks -2.5, O/U 46.5
Seattle is covering in 58% of the SportsLine model’s simulations. Bet the spread at DraftKings:
The Seahawks are the favorite to win the Super Bowl, so they’re favored here. From past experiences, if they can avoid turnovers they should have no problem beating the Rams again. They gave the ball away seven times in the two regular-season meetings but won the matchup in Seattle and missed a 61-yard field goal that would have won the game in L.A. One question is which type of game this will be, as the first was a 21-19 nail-biter and the second was a 38-37 OT thriller. The Rams had 249 total yards in their home victory but piled up 581 in the second meeting. Seattle had 415 at home and 414 in L.A., so it looks like we know what to expect from the Seahawks offense against a Rams defense that has had some problems. L.A. averaged 30.5 points in the regular season, most in the NFL, but Seattle was third at 28.4. The Seahawks defense allowed the fewest points in the league (17.2) while the Rams were 10th (20.4). The SportsLine model is leaning slightly Under the total, with simulations projecting 46 total points, and has Seattle covering 58% of the time for an “A” grade. At DraftKings, 83% of the spread bets and 91% of the handle are on Seattle, while 69% of bettors are on the Over.
