How Arsenal’s six-point Premier League lead over Man City compares to recent champs

Liverpool held Arsenal to a goalless draw on Thursday, but the Gunners maintain a six-point lead atop the Premier League table that continues their status as the team to beat for this season’s title.

Arsenal’s defensive shape stood out yet again, limiting the Reds to zero shots on target and 0.36 expected goals at the Emirates Stadium but the hosts did not fare all that much better in attack. Though they took nine shots and managed to put four on target, an attack featuring star Bukayo Saka and new signing Viktor Gyokeres strung together just 0.52 expected goals by the final whistle. Their low attacking output hindered their ability to extend their lead at the top of the table to eight points, which would have bolstered their title charge even further.

The Gunners’ chances of winning their first major title in two decades, though, did not take much of a hit thanks to Manchester City’s 1-1 draw against Brighton and Hove Albion on Wednesday. They maintained the six-point advantage they had over City heading into the midweek fixtures, which remains their greatest-ever lead atop the table at this stage of the season. They currently boast a greater lead than last season’s champions Liverpool did at this point in the season, when they had a five point advantage over Arsenal, and are still faring better than several recent champions.

Premier League champions, last 10 seasons

Arsenal are currently averaging 2.33 points per match, which puts them on pace for 89 points at the end of the campaign when rounding up. If they maintain this rate, they are faring better than three of the last 10 Premier League champions – last season’s Liverpool side, which clocked in at 84 points, the 2020-21 Manchester City that racked up 86 points and the historic Leicester City team from the 2015-16 campaign. That Leicester team actually had the lowest point total of any in the last decade, collecting just 81 points, finishing 10 points ahead of Arsenal when all was said and done – despite the fact that the two sides were level on points 21 matches into that season.

This iteration of the Gunners entered the midweek fixtures with a sizeable six-point lead, but not an unprecedented one. Eight teams in the history of the Premier League had seven or more points on the next best team through 20 matches, a statistic led by the 2017-18 Manchester City team that had a 15 point lead over Manchester United at that stage of the season and finished the season with an 11 point gap. Of that group, two went on to lose the title – the 1995-96 Newcastle United side with a seven point lead after 20 games that eventually finished four points behind Manchester United and the 2018-19 Liverpool team with a seven point advantage that fell one point behind Manchester City at season’s end.

Premier League teams will take part in FA Cup action over the weekend before returning to league play the following week. Arsenal have a chance to maintain their lead with a game against relegation contender Nottingham Forest on Jan. 17, while Manchester City will play in an all-important edition of the Manchester derby earlier that day.