Antoine Semenyo might not be a Manchester City player yet, but he can already offer an almighty helping hand to his prospective employers on Saturday. What might yet be his final game as a Bournemouth player sees his boyhood side, City’s title rivals and one of the few “Big Six” teams not to make a play for him visit the Vitality Stadium. Arsenal may yet rue Semenyo staying put at Bournemouth for a few days longer, but perhaps the more intriguing question is the extent to which the 25-year-old might swing the title race if, as expected, he moves to City.
For his part Andoni Iraola is in no rush to see that move quickly transpire. “Antoine is going to play,” said the Bournemouth boss on Friday. “I think the idea at least is that he’s going to be available for these two games [the visit of Arsenal on Saturday and Tottenham on January 7] that we have in a very short turnaround. I hope he can be here more time, but I don’t know what is going to happen.”
Iraola has done all he can in recent days to keep the door open for the forward to stay, but he knows he is powerless to change what seems to be the direction of travel. After all, Semenyo has a $87 million release clause that expires on January 10 and is keen to move on. Despite interest from a host of the Premier League’s richest teams, Manchester City are the only club to have engaged in direct talks with Bournemouth, according to CBS Sports sources. Liverpool are also interested, but are yet to press ahead. With the sporting director at Anfield, Richard Hughes, having joined from Bournemouth, there are the contacts there that could see a deal pushed through quickly. For the time being, though, it is City in the drivers’ seat.
And the high level details around that move make for a compelling case that Semenyo could come in and swing the title race City’s way. What do teams want when they make major signings in the January window? Invariably it is players who will not require a lengthy adjustment period. Born in west London, Semenyo has spent his entire career in the English league system and is now into season four in the Premier League. There will inevitably be complications when learning how to play for Pep Guardiola, but the more direct approach City have utilized this season should suit a player departing Iraola’s tutelage.
This is about as plug and play as City could realistically hope for. And they can play him almost anywhere. According to Transfermarkt, Semenyo has played 46 of his 97 Premier League games on the right flank and 37 on the left with a little bit of moonlighting at center forward in between. That versatility in positioning is reflective of the same in his technique. There’s a pretty encouraging spread in the numerous shots Semenyo has taken since the start of 2022-23. Of those 243 a little over half, 133, come off his left foot, 95 his right.
These numbers speak to Semenyo’s technical ability and so does the experience of watching him. There are few more exhilarating sights in the division than the Ghana international at full flight, drawing multiple defenders his way in transition and blowing past them en route to goal. Take this brilliant equaliser against Fulham, when two defenders have shown him to the byline and look to have snuffed out the chance. There isn’t really a pass on for Semenyo but no worries, he’ll just roll the ball into the bottom corner. That’s the goal of a future star for a Premier League title contender.
On a surface level, then, this feels like a can’t miss use of money, a player who merits a fee that would make him the third most expensive in history. Here’s the question then. If that is indeed the case, why does Semenyo’s output where it matters most seem somewhat underwhelming for a player wanted by every top club in the land.
You’ll be thinking this is madness, I bet. After all since the start of last season Semenyo has the eighth most goals of anyone in the Premier League. His 20 is more than anyone in a City shirt bar Erling Haaland, a better return than Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers or Bruno Fernandes. These are superstar numbers.
Some of that is a function of the fact that in a Bournemouth team, Semenyo is a superstar. He is a primary option in a way that no one will ever be on a team that includes Haaland. At City he might not even be a tertiary. He will exist in a team whose primary responsibility is getting the ball to their No.9 and letting him take the shots. Hence why Guardiola has come to increasingly favor both Jeremy Doku and Ryan Cherki, whose great abilities come with moving the ball into dangerous positions and making shots for others from there.
That is not something Semenyo has done for Bournemouth. Since the start of last season he creates just 1.3 chances per 90 minutes and averages 0.11 expected assists. He has provided eight actual assists but few of them are Kevin De Bruyne-esque teeings up. The long throws might make a nice little bonus option for Guardiola to experiment with, but like his goals, it feels like this is a player on an impressive but unsustainable streak.
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Perhaps though he does not need to create for Haaland but can function as the Robin to the hulking Batman in the middle of the penalty area. What we would want to see here is a player who gets shots, which Semenyo does, over three per 90 Premier League minutes worth 0.28 xG. That would get dinged in City blue and would raise the question, is Semenyo offering more as a support striker than Phil Foden or even Omar Marmoush, who has struggled for minutes this season.
The graph above paints a stark picture. Semenyo doesn’t get the ball up the field like City’s more creative attackers. His xG and xA don’t put him ahead of many of his prospective team mates. Those numbers might swing upwards when he trades in a struggling side for a title contender, but would you pick him in an XI ahead of Foden, Cherki and Doku? In the short term there’s a case to be made that he plugs a hole while Doku is injured — he is due back shortly — and Marmoush is at the Africa Cup of Nations. There’s even an argument to be had about the value of swapping him out for Savinho, who is still wanted by Tottenham. It’s just that we’re talking about a lot of money for a potential depth piece, especially when there are other areas of the pitch (right back, central midfield) that look like they’d benefit from investment ahead of the well-stocked flanks.
Such an assessment could look rather foolish rather soon indeed. There is evidently something that the numbers aren’t seeing that an awful lot of elite teams are. If this was the City of five years ago you would simply trust that they knew how to execute their business. Over the last few seasons, though, their transfer execution has been a bit more sketchy. Yes there have been Cherkis and Josko Gvardiols. It’s just there have been a few too many Kalvin Phillips, Ilkay Gundogan: The Returns, James Trafford signings before a better goalkeeper arrives a few weeks later, even Savinhos to put your full trust in the current City.
In spite of muddled recruitment and a somewhat more muddled playing style, City remain firmly in the title race. When they are as close as they are to Arsenal, maybe all they need is a depth piece that delivers in one or two big moments. Semenyo could certainly be that. It is just not entirely clear how much more than that he could be.
Viewing information: how to watch Bournemouth vs. Arsenal
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 3 | Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Vitality Stadium — Bournemouth, United Kingdom
- TV: NBC | Live stream: Peacock
- Odds: Bournemouth +480; Draw +350; Arsenal -225
