A sharp decline in Canadian travel to the United States in 2025 is inflicting real economic pain on states that have historically depended on cross-border tourism, revealing how sensitive regional tourism economies are to international travel patterns and geopolitical dynamics.
New research indicates that key border states such as Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, North Dakota and Montana are experiencing significant downturns in Canadian visitor numbers, with some reporting declines of up to 30% year-over-year.
States along the U.S.–Canada border have long benefited from short-term road trips, weekend shopping, seasonal outdoor recreation and repeat visits by Canadian tourists, which collectively funnel billions of dollars into hotels, restaurants, events and retail sectors.
However, cross-border movements have fallen precipitously, with recent data showing Canadian land border crossings down significantly and air travel declines compounding the trend. Facebook
Economists and business owners trace part of this slump to broader political and economic frictions between the two countries. Tariff disputes, diplomatic tensions and perceptions around U.S. visa and travel policies have all played a role in dampening Canadians’ enthusiasm for trips south.
According to a recent report, Canadian tourism contributed more than $20.5 billion to the U.S. economy in 2024, supporting roughly 140,000 American jobs, particularly in hospitality and services—figures that are now at risk as travel contracts.
Local business owners are feeling the pinch. In border zones from Michigan’s Upper Peninsula to North Dakota’s small towns, hoteliers report empty rooms and restaurants cite fewer patrons, especially during peak weekends that once drew crowds of Canadian visitors. Anecdotal accounts underscore the dramatic shift: as one industry observer put it, “I can count the number of Canadian visitors on one hand.”
States Reporting Most Significant Declines
A December 2025 Joint Economic Committee (minority) report found that, from January through October 2025, passenger-vehicle crossings at the U.S.–Canada border fell by nearly 20% overall, with several border states experiencing much steeper drops.
Among the sharpest reported declines:
- New Hampshire has seen a sharp drop in Canadian visitors—reported at roughly 30% last summer—which a congressional analysis and local businesses attribute to tariffs, tighter border controls, and heightened political friction that is also reducing through-traffic across northern New England.
- Vermont: The report cites more than a 28% decline in passenger-vehicle crossings from Canada during the first ten months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024—an outsized hit for small towns and ski-country gateways that depend on repeat Canadian weekend traffic.
- Idaho: Crossings into Idaho were down more than 27% over the same January–October window, a notable signal for border communities and mountain recreation corridors that rely on Canadian road trips for fuel stops, lodging, and groceries.
- Maine: The report places Maine’s decline at about 25% for passenger-vehicle crossings in the first ten months of 2025. Complementary local analysis points to scale and spillover: Maine had nearly 750,000 fewer land crossings through November 2025, and border-area taxable retail sales and hospitality receipts weakened relative to statewide trends.
- Washington: Washington also saw a steep contraction, with the JEC report citing more than a 24% decline in passenger-vehicle crossings for January–October 2025. Axios’ Seattle reporting similarly described a 24% drop over that timeframe, underscoring the significance for Bellingham-area and I-5 corridor businesses built around quick cross-border visits.
In New England, the impact is often described in intensely local terms—empty parking lots, fewer walk-ins, and softer weekend occupancy. One border business owner quoted in the JEC report summarized the stakes succinctly: “When our neighbors stay away, our margins disappear,” said Kyle Daley, owner of Soloman’s Store in West Stewartstown, New Hampshire.
7 Main Factors Behind the Drop
Several intertwined economic, political, and policy-driven forces are contributing to the sharp decline in Canadian travel to the United States. While no single issue explains the downturn, the following factors collectively illustrate why Canadian visitation has fallen so steeply in 2025:
1. Rising Political and Trade Tensions
Ongoing tariff disputes, diplomatic strain, and general political friction between the two countries have influenced Canadians’ willingness to travel south. Negative sentiment and uncertainty around bilateral relations have made U.S. trips feel less predictable and less attractive.
2. Higher Travel Costs and Currency Pressure
A weaker Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar has made cross-border trips significantly more expensive. Hotel stays, restaurant bills, fuel, attractions, and shopping outings now cost substantially more for Canadians than in previous years, reducing discretionary travel.
3. Stricter U.S. Visa and Travel Policies
New or increased fees, stronger vetting at border crossings, and added administrative steps have created what many travelers perceive as friction-heavy entry processes. These barriers discourage spontaneous or short-term travel—traditionally a key driver of Canadian visits to U.S. border states.
4. Post-Pandemic Travel Behavior Shifts
Travel habits have not fully normalized. Canadians are increasingly choosing domestic trips within Canada or exploring alternative international destinations perceived as more affordable or more welcoming.
5. Reduced Air and Land Connectivity
Cuts to certain cross-border flight routes, along with lower land-border travel volumes, have weakened the transportation ecosystem that once made U.S. getaways convenient. Fewer flights and higher fares further depress demand.
6. Competitive Alternatives Abroad
Destinations such as Mexico, the Caribbean, and parts of Europe have actively targeted Canadian travelers with attractive packages, lower costs, and simplified entry requirements. This competition has siphoned potential visitors away from U.S. states.
Together, these factors have produced a measurable and ongoing drop in Canadian tourism—placing significant economic pressure on U.S. border states that have long depended on this reliable visitor base.
