By almost any measure, this is the most prosperous era in San Diego Padres history. The Padres have been to the postseason four times in the last six years after reaching the playoffs five times in their first 51 seasons, and sure, the third wild card spot had a hand in that, but it’s not like San Diego was knocking on the door most of the team’s history. Three of the franchise’s six highest regular-season winning percentages have come within the last six years. Four of the top eight have come in the last eight years.
The on-field success has energized a fan base that has experienced two National League pennants (1984 and 1998) but still no World Series championship. Here are the club’s five best attendance marks:
- 2025: 3,437,201
- 2024: 3,330,545
- 2023: 3,271,554
- 2004: 3,016,752 (first year of Petco Park)
- 2022: 2,987,470
There are few environments in the sport better than a packed Petco Park for an important game. Padres fans are aching for a championship and so too was late owner Peter Seidler, who spent significantly in an effort to bring a title to San Diego. The team’s payroll was $71 million in 2017, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That rose to $104 million by 2019, $184 million by 2021, and $257 million by 2023. A team that rarely ran a nine-figure payroll a decade ago is now regularly above $200 million.
Seidler’s investment in the team has been rewarded with investment from the fan base — the Padres make so much money now that they pay into revenue sharing rather than receive revenue-sharing money. A good reminder that winning pays for itself, that is. Seidler died at age 63 in November 2023 and, since then, the family has bickered over who controls the franchise. More than bicker, really. Seidler’s widow, Sheel, and his brothers, John and Robert, fought for control, with lawsuits being filed.
John Seidler is now the Padres’ official control person with Major League Baseball, and, last month, the family announced it will “initiate a formal process to explore strategic options” with the franchise. In other words, the Seidlers want to sell, opting to cash out to the tune of several billion dollars rather than continue on with the team. Whenever a sale is in the works, payroll and spending become a question. At the Winter Meetings, John Seidler said he expects payroll to be about the same as 2025.
“We anticipate payroll will remain at a similar level to last year,” Siedler told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “We’re operating the club as we have for the last five or six years.”
The Padres closed 2025 with a $280 million payroll for competitive balance tax (CBT) purposes and a $221 million actual payroll, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They will be hit with a $10 million or so CBT bill, so all-in, the Padres paid roughly $231 million for their club in 2025 ($221 million in salary plus $10 million CBT bill). Including arbitration projections, the Padres have about $196 million in actual salary on the books for 2026. It’s $233 million for CBT, south of the $244 million CBT threshold.
Having $196 million on the books and spending to last year’s level ($231 million) suggests general manager A.J. Preller has about $35 million to spend this winter, though it’s not quite that simple. Whatever they spend gets added to their CBT payroll and, once they cross the $244 million threshold, every dollar added is taxed at 30%. Preller really has more like $25 million to $30 million in spending room, which is still a good amount, but maybe not enough to add another starter (ideally two), a first base/DH, and general depth.
It is no surprise then that several of San Diego’s top players have popped up in trade rumors this winter, including outfielder Ramón Laureano, closer Mason Miller, setup men Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon, and starter Nick Pivetta. Preller is unpredictable — you can never rule him out on anything — but indications are the Padres are looking for ways to subtract payroll while also improving the team. Plus it’s the offseason, right? This is when a GM should consider anything and everything.
Trading players to clear payroll while also improving the team is easier said than done. The Padres did it two years ago when they sent Juan Soto (and Trent Grisham) to the New York Yankees in a trade that proved to be a major win-win, but that’s a rarity, not something you can repeat every offseason. How can the Padres shed money this winter? They have several options, some better than others. Let’s dig into them.
The easy move: Trade Laureano
The Padres picked up Laureano’s $6.5 million club option at the outset of the offseason and would have no trouble finding a taker for him and his salary. The problem isn’t so much finding a way to shed Laureano’s money. It’s replacing him. He’s great bang for the buck at $6.5 million. Mike Yastrzemski, who is four years older than Laureano, just signed for two years and $23 million. Cedric Mullins is the same age as Laureano and he just signed for one year and $7.5 million while coming off a much worse season.
Laureano’s $6.5 million salary is really good value even if he’s closer to his 2024 self (107 OPS+ and 1.3 WAR) than his 2025 self (136 OPS+ and 3.8 WAR) in 2026. Unless the Padres pick up a cheap outfielder in a trade (always possible), it’ll likely cost them more to replace Laureano than it would to simply keep him. Also, $6.5 million doesn’t buy you a whole lot these days. Maybe San Diego could trade Laureano for a younger outfielder and use the money on Adrian Houser or Zack Littell? A starter of that ilk.
It’s the middle of December. There’s no reason not to listen on Laureano. You never know when a team will come in with an offer above what you’re expecting. If Laureano is included in a larger deal that brings back significant talent, OK, that’s one thing, but moving him for the sole purpose of shedding payroll doesn’t make much sense. He’s a good player with a below-market salary. The Padres need more players like Laureano, not to trade him away.
Robbing Peter to pay Paul: Trade Pivetta
It was not until spring training opened that the Padres signed Pivetta this past season, and the structure of his contract is hard to ignore. Payroll and cash flow questions have persisted since Peter Seidler’s death, and Pivetta’s contract is heavily backloaded. Here’s his contract:
- 2025: $1 million salary plus $3 million signing bonus
- 2026: $19 million salary
- 2027: $14 million player option
- 2028: $18 million player option
There are also conditional club options for 2027 and 2029 tied to time spent on the injured list. The important thing is the Padres paid Pivetta only $4 million in 2025 and now his salary is set to jump to $19 million. The contract is almost structured in a way to give the Padres one cheap year of Pivetta before trading him this offseason. (Tyler Glasnow’s two-year deal with the Tampa Bay Rays was structured similarly; he was paid $5.35 million in 2023 and $25 million in 2024, and was traded in December 2023.)
Now 32, Pivetta was San Diego’s best and most consistent starter in 2025, leading the team in innings, ERA, strikeout-to-walk ratio, and more. That guy would be very hard to replace. At the same time, it was the best season of Pivetta’s career by a mile and this winter may represent a chance for the Padres to sell high on the player before his salary skyrockets. Pitching is always in demand. There will be no shortage of suitors and, unlike Laureano’s $6.5 million, Pivetta’s $19 million could go reasonably far in free agency.
Trading your best starter so you can reallocate his salary, including on another starting pitcher(s), is a risky move. When you have limited spending room like the Padres seem to have this winter though, it might be the best path forward anyway. There’s a chance Pivetta just had the best year of his career and you can bargain hunt for pitching in a way that’s harder to do for position players. Plus the pitching landscape suggests San Diego will get one or two young players in a Pivetta trade, which factors into the decision too.
The compromise position: Trade Cronenworth
Every year, almost without fail, I look at what Jake Cronenworth is doing and it’s better than I realized. By no means is he a star, but he is a solid ballplayer with a history of getting on base, grinding out at-bats, popping double-digit homers, and playing good defense wherever his team sticks him. This past season, it was mostly at second base. In 2023 and 2024, Cronenworth primarily played first. In 2022, he was back at second. He’s also played 74 careers games at short, including 13 in 2025.
While he may never be the centerpiece of a World Series team, Cronenworth is the kind of player you often find at the bottom of a contender’s lineup. He’s a winning player, one his team is happy to have and rarely laments. That makes him appealing to potential trade partners and also difficult for the Padres to surrender. Cronenworth has five years and $60 million remaining on his contract, which is plenty fair. It’s neither an overpay nor a bargain. It’s about what he would get as a free agent right now.
Cronenworth’s age (32 in January) suggests his decline phase is on the horizon, in which case moving him now would be a smart move. Get out before the bad years, you know? Trading Cronenworth would make the Padres a worse team in the short-term though, and the short-term should be the priority. This team is built to win now, not three or four years down the road. The free-agent infield market is not good. It would be painful, but trading Cronenworth may be the best way to clear money and also get back talent.
The dream scenario: Trade Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts just wrapped up his third season with the Padres and he’s been better than the general perception: .272/.331/.407 (104 OPS+) with 7.4 WAR. FanGraphs valued his production at $78.7 million and the Padres have paid Bogaerts $80 million over those three years, so they’ve broken even. I’d argue San Diego came out ahead because it’s at a point on the win curve (i.e. every win ups their postseason odds significantly) where it should be willing to “overpay” to add wins, but I digress.
That all said, Bogaerts just turned 33 and his best years are likely behind him. The best case scenario is continuing to break even another few years before Bogaerts gets into the decline years every team knows come with the territory when you give a player a (very) long-term contract. The Padres owe Bogaerts $25 million a year from 2026-33, so that’s eight years and $200 million to go. It’s a huge investment for a player who is already showing signs of decline and is just now getting into his mid-30s.
Trading Bogaerts will require eating money, and while no owner likes to pay a player to play for another team, there is a point at which it’s worth it. If the Padres pay down, say, $10 million a year to move Bogaerts, that still clears $15 million a year for the next eight years. And the more money you eat, the more you can expect in return too, though I don’t think Bogaerts will fetch a huge return either way. The Padres could attach a prospect to Bogaerts to further entice potential trade partners, though the farm system is thin.
Manny Machado should be mentioned here too. He’s owed more money than Bogaerts ($35 million a year through 2033, or eight years and $280 million total) and he’s roughly the same age, but he is a better player. Machado is metronomic. It’s a 120-ish OPS+ and 3.5-ish WAR a year every year like clockwork. He is getting close to his decline phase though. Unloading part of the $200 million owed to Bogaerts will be very difficult. Doing the same with Machado and his $280 million may be impossible.
The nuclear option: Trade Tatis
Had he not signed his 14-year, $340 million extension in February 2021, Fernando Tatis Jr. would have become a free agent this offseason, and he would have been the No. 1 player on the market hands down. There are nine years and $286 million remaining on his contract. Would Tatis, who will turn only 27 in January, have beaten that this offseason? Yes, undoubtedly. His style is not for everyone and you can ding him for the performance-enhancing drug suspension, but Tatis is a spectacular all-around player.
Tatis is also San Diego’s most popular player by far (far far) and trading him would be tantamount to betraying a fan base that has been so heavily invested in this Padres team the last few years. You cannot trade Tatis and still claim winning is a top priority. You can game it out all you want — we can sign these three or four players for the same money and have a more well-rounded team, etc. — but players like Tatis are irreplaceable. His value transcends what he does on the field. He sells tickets, merchandise, all that.
Put Tatis on the trade market and the interest would be significant. His contact/power/defense skill set aligns perfectly with how the American League champion Toronto Blue Jays build their roster. The Detroit Tigers could use a player like Tatis. Ditto the Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, and more. Know where Tatis would fit especially well? With the Los Angeles Dodgers, though I don’t recommend holding your breath waiting for the Padres to trade Tatis to their hated rivals.
It is a ruthless business too. When you need a cup of water, teams give you sand. If the Padres indicate Tatis is truly available, teams will know it is for financial reasons, not baseball reasons, and they’ll offer 75 cents on the dollar. Maybe less. Trading superstars is bad business. In this case, the Padres are unlikely to get a sufficient return baseball-wise, and the PR hit would be about as bad as imaginable. Remember those attendance numbers earlier? Forget about seeing them again in 2026.
Assuming a Tatis trade (and a Jackson Merrill trade) is a non-option, and trading Bogaerts and/or Machado isn’t feasible, the best way for the Padres to move money is to trade Cronenworth or Pivetta. Laureano certainly shouldn’t be off-limits, though he’s such a good value at his salary that it will be hard to trade him, reallocate those dollars, and come out ahead. A Miller trade would be motivated by adding talent, not saving money given his projected $3.4 million salary in 2026. He’s very affordable.
Smaller bites like trading relievers Jason Adam (projected $6.8 million in 2026), Yuki Matsui ($19.25 million through 2028), or Wandy Peralta ($8.9 million through 2027) will help only so much. Adam is coming off a major quad injury too and may not start the season on time. If the Padres were that concerned about shedding his salary, they would have non-tendered Adam in November. They’re willing to keep him, and if they do trade him, it will likely be for less than he’s worth given the injury.
Peter Seidler was in it to win it. Spending was not an issue with him at the helm. The Padres need a starter and Seidler would make sure they were in on the best, including perhaps re-signing Dylan Cease or Michael King. The current group of Seidlers has put the clamps on payroll. The Padres still spend significantly, for sure, but they’re holding steady at this level, not upping payroll. That could force Preller to make some trades he doesn’t otherwise want to make, because it’s his only way to create payroll flexibility.
