The Thanksgiving holiday certainly served up its fair share of upsets. Fortunately for you, you were able to avoid the bulk of them by following along with us here. Last week, we told you why the Cowboys were live against the Chiefs, and they proceeded to win outright. The same was said for the Bengals and Bears. During the Sunday slate, we also accurately pegged the Houston Texans as an upset candidate against the Colts.
The lone team that did not pull off the upset was the Arizona Cardinals over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they only lost by a field goal. Of course, we did fail to recognize what was arguably one of the biggest upsets of the season in Carolina taking down the Rams, but it was another strong week for us dancing through the minefield.
We’ll look to keep that going as we now turn our attention toward Week 14, where we’ve identified five favorites who we are placing on upset alert.
NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet NFL at FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.
- When: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Where: Ford Field (Detroit)
- Stream: Prime Video
- Cowboys ML odds: +145
This is a monumental matchup for both clubs as Detroit (7-5) comes into Week 14 as the No. 8 seed, while the Cowboys (6-5-1) are right behind them as the No. 9 seed. While the Lions may be just a tick above them in the standings, Dallas is playing much better at the moment. Jerry Jones’ team is currently riding a three-game winning streak, and it’s been the defense that has helped spark this turnaround. Ever since Quinnen Williams made his debut, they’ve won three straight and have allowed 21.7 points per game (allowed 30.8 points per game in the first nine games). The Cowboys are also second in the NFL in pressures and run defense over this winning streak.
We’ve seen Jared Goff get jumpy when defenses have been able to get to him early in games, which Dallas now seems capable of doing. Goff could also be playing without his security blanket, Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has an ankle injury. If this improved run defense can also keep Detroit’s dynamic duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery somewhat in check, Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense have the firepower to create an early cushion.
- When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | Where: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville)
- TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
- Jaguars ML odds: +105
The Colts feel like a team where the air has been taken out of the balloon. They’ve lost three of their last four games, which has moved them out of first place in the AFC South, and are now looking up to the Jaguars, who they’ll visit on Sunday.
Part of the reason for Indy’s recent decline is due to injury, specifically with Daniel Jones as the QB is playing through a fractured fibula. As he manages that injury, Jones had zero scrambles last week, and if that continues in Week 14, it will lower the ceiling to the Colts offense some. If Jones is more of a statue in the pocket, that could result in Josh Hines-Allen having a strong day off the edge. The Jaguars pass rusher has tallied 5.5 sacks and eight total quarterback hits over the last five games.
While the Colts will likely lean even more on Jonathan Taylor on the ground, that does play into one of Jacksonville’s strengths, as they are allowing the fewest rushing yards per game (82.4) in the league. The Colts also haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014 (winless in the last nine games).
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
- When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park)
- TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
- Bengals ML odds: +220
We have to look at the Bengals differently now that Joe Burrow is back in the fold. Does this team have flaws? Absolutely. That said, their franchise quarterback dulls them. Cincy is 3-0 in Burrow’s starts this season, and the signal-caller is 2-0 in his previous head-to-head matchups against Josh Allen. They were able to pull off the upset over Lamar Jackson and the Ravens on Thanksgiving, which also gives them the rest advantage over Buffalo after the Bills played on Sunday. Over the previous two weeks, Cincinnati’s defense has shown some signs of life, allowing 17 points per game during that stretch. They’ll certainly need to keep that going against Allen, but Buffalo is also a flawed club, so this game could come down to which superstar quarterback makes the most plays, giving them a puncher’s chance of cashing on the moneyline.
Los Angeles Rams (-8.5) at Arizona Cardinals
- When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Where: State Farm Stadium (Scottsdale)
- TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
- Cardinals ML odds: +325
If you’ve followed these upset stories over the previous few weeks, you’ll notice I have an affinity for picking the Cardinals whenever they’re dogs. While they are just 3-9 on the season, I believe they are a much tougher out than some other clubs that are well below .500 on the season. Jacoby Brissett leads the NFL in passing yards since becoming the starter in Week 6, and Trey McBride is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. With that in mind, Arizona is capable of going toe-to-toe with most offenses.
The big question will be how they perform on the defensive side of the ball, but they are starting to get reinforcements. Corner Will Johnson made his return last week and played 61 snaps. Defensive tackle Walter Nolen III has been sidelined due to injury, but if he can make his return in Week 14, that only emboldens Arizona as an upset candidate.
The Rams shot themselves in the foot in their loss to the Panthers last week, particularly with three turnovers by Matthew Stafford. Is that a mere one-off dud by L.A.? Or is it a sign of them coming back down to earth a little bit? There’s the possibility that this spot — on the road against a division rival — sees them still a bit off-kilter, and potentially ripe for the picking.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
- When: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET | Where: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City)
- TV: NBC
- Texans ML odds: +155
This is essentially a win-or-go-home matchup for these AFC teams. Kansas City is back to .500 on the season (6-6) after falling to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, and the organization seems tired. They’ve lost three of their last four games and are averaging 22.7 points per game over that stretch. It’s worth noting that those losses all came on the road, and Kansas City has fared much better at Arrowhead Stadium this season (5-1). Even with home-field advantage, this is still a tough spot for K.C., facing arguably the best defense in the NFL in the Texans.
Houston is the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL (16.5 points per game allowed) and total defense (265.7 yards allowed). The unit is also properly equipped to handle Patrick Mahomes’ improvisation. The Chiefs QB leads the NFL in passing yards per game outside of the pocket (73.4), but the Texans are allowing an NFL-low (11 yards per game) on those types of throws. With C.J. Stroud giving a boost to the offense, Houston is very much live in prime time.
