Trans-Pacific View writer Mercy Kuo often engages subject-matter consultants, coverage practitioners, and strategic thinkers throughout the globe for his or her various insights into U.S. Asia coverage. This dialog with Thijs Van de Graaf – affiliate professor at Ghent College, vitality fellow on the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics, and lead writer of IRENA’s report on the geopolitics of essential supplies (2023) – is the 451st in The Trans-Pacific View Perception Sequence.
Clarify the function and relevance of essential minerals within the world vitality transition.
The vitality transition is, at its core, a supplies transition. Batteries, wind generators, photo voltaic panels, and electrical automobiles (EVs) depend on lithium, cobalt, nickel, and uncommon earth components – making clear applied sciences way more mineral-intensive than fossil gas techniques. An electrical automotive, for instance, requires six instances extra minerals than a traditional one, and an offshore wind farm wants 9 instances extra minerals per megawatt than a fuel plant.
However in contrast to fossil fuels, which have to be continuously extracted and burned, minerals are a one-time enter. As soon as mined, they can be utilized, reused, and recycled – shifting the safety equation. The issue shouldn’t be that we lack these supplies, however that provide chains are fragile, refining is concentrated, and demand is rising quicker than manufacturing can sustain.
Look at the influence of China-U.S. geopolitical tensions on essential minerals provide chains.
The China-U.S. rivalry is reshaping world provide chains for essential minerals. China dominates many elements of the essential minerals provide chain, but it surely notably controls refining and processing. Whereas China solely mines about 13 % of worldwide lithium sources, it refines over 60 % of the world’s lithium. Equally, it processes 85 % of the world’s uncommon earths. This dominance shouldn’t be a lot linked to useful resource endowment, however quite strategic industrial coverage and capital funding over many years.
In response, the U.S. is racing to reshape provide chains, incentivize home manufacturing, and deepen partnerships with resource-rich allies like Australia and Canada. The Inflation Discount Act (IRA) has kickstarted main funding, whereas China has retaliated with export controls on gallium and germanium – signaling that essential minerals are actually a geopolitical bargaining chip.
The result’s a fragmenting provide chain, with competing industrial blocs forming. However reshoring and diversification take time, and within the brief time period, bottlenecks, worth volatility, and political threat will outline the panorama.
What different geopolitical dangers are affecting developments within the essential minerals business?
Past China-U.S. tensions, mineral provide chains have gotten a brand new enviornment for geopolitical energy struggles. I see three geopolitical dangers.
Useful resource nationalism is surging. Indonesia has banned unprocessed nickel exports to construct a home processing business. Chile and Mexico are nationalizing lithium reserves, aiming to maneuver up the worth chain – from mining to battery manufacturing. The message is obvious: mineral-rich nations not wish to be simply suppliers; they need an even bigger reduce of the income.
Territorial disputes over mineral wealth are heating up. The Trump administration floated the thought of shopping for Greenland – wealthy in uncommon earths – and lately has begun insisting that Ukraine’s mineral deposits play a task in repaying U.S. army help. In Africa, Rwanda-backed rebels are seizing key mining areas within the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Industrial coverage is taking heart stage. Governments are investing in battery recycling, different chemistries, and provide chain resilience. Sodium-ion and solid-state batteries might finally cut back reliance on lithium and cobalt. However geopolitical urgency is pushing softer points – like environmental influence and labor rights – off the agenda.
Analyze the correlation between vitality safety and nationwide safety from the views of Washington, Beijing, and different stakeholder nations.
Power safety is not nearly oil and fuel. It’s about who controls the supplies that energy the clear vitality financial system.
For Washington, reliance on Chinese language mineral refining is seen as a strategic vulnerability. The U.S. is doubling down on provide chain resilience via authorities intervention, incentives, and defense-linked investments.
For Beijing, mineral dominance is a lever of geopolitical affect. China has spent many years securing provide chains, investing in African mines, Latin American lithium, and strategic stockpiles. However China can be weak – it’s the world’s largest importer of uncooked nickel, copper, and lithium, that means any disruption in its upstream provide might reverberate via its financial system.
For Europe, Japan, and rising economies, the problem is navigating rising financial nationalism. The EU has launched its Vital Uncooked Supplies Act to spice up home refining, however with restricted sources, it stays depending on imports. In the meantime, resource-rich nations like Indonesia and Chile are seizing the second to extract higher offers from world consumers.
The world is getting into an period the place entry to minerals is as strategic as entry to grease as soon as was – however with a key distinction: a lithium scarcity gained’t shut down your EV, but it surely would possibly stop new ones from being constructed. The safety dangers are actual, however they play out over a distinct time horizon.
Assess the market implications of China-U.S. strategic competitors relating to China’s management over essential minerals.
The China-U.S. competitors over essential minerals is reshaping world markets, not simply in commerce however in industrial energy. China dominates refining and processing, not as a result of it has all of the sources, however as a result of it constructed the infrastructure. The West is now racing to catch up, however mining and refining take time, creating fragmentation, worth volatility, and geopolitical leverage.
But true self-sufficiency is an phantasm – China can be the most important importer of key uncooked supplies. Provide chains should not linear however deeply interwoven. The true problem isn’t just securing extra minerals however rethinking provide itself: investing in recycling, new battery chemistries, and concrete mining to interrupt dependencies and construct resilience.
Relatively than a return to free-market dynamics, we’re getting into an period the place industrial coverage and geopolitical technique dictate the way forward for essential minerals markets. Governments will proceed to closely intervene in provide chains, whether or not via subsidies, commerce restrictions, or strategic partnerships.
