World electrical automobile (EV) gross sales hit a file excessive in 2024, pushed by a 40 % surge in China, which bought 11 million EVs. Whereas some Western international locations imposed tariffs to curb Chinese language EV imports, Central Asia embraced them, providing tax breaks and facilitating native manufacturing.
Kazakhstan noticed a 36-fold rise within the sale of Chinese language EVs in 2024, with projections reaching 40,173 automobiles by 2035. Kyrgyzstan remained a key importer, Tajikistan granted a decade-long tax exemption for EV imports, and Uzbekistan launched its first Chinese language EV manufacturing facility, with one other deliberate for 2025.
“China’s push for EV infrastructure in Central Asia is strategic,” notes China-Central Asia knowledgeable Adina Masalbekova. “Past commerce, it reduces petroleum dependency and deepens financial and geopolitical ties with Beijing.”
Regardless of corruption and weak rule of legislation, regional funding boards proceed to attract a whole lot of Chinese language enterprise leaders and officers, underscoring China’s rising financial and political foothold.
“China is Central Asia’s prime investor, with over $15 billion in funding,” Temur Umarov, fellow on the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Middle, informed The Diplomat. “Authoritarian governments have used these tasks for political leverage, making the area more and more depending on Chinese language financial and technological affect. Chinese language automakers, led by BYD, now dominate the worldwide EV market, outpacing Tesla and German manufacturers. Central Asia mirrors this development.”
The extent of Chinese language funding in Central Asia varies considerably by nation. Whereas Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan preserve a extra diversified financial panorama, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan rely extra closely on Chinese language funding. “Funding figures are advanced and infrequently troublesome to calculate,” Umarov stated. “I depend on Chinese language information for consistency.” He provides that China’s financial position within the area is critical however aligns with broader world commerce patterns.
“Central Asian economies primarily export unprocessed pure sources in alternate for high-value items like equipment and expertise. This construction isn’t distinctive to China – it’s how world commerce operates.”
Uzbekistan
“I want to stay nameless, it’s dangerous to speak about China – even on impartial subjects,” a resident of Tashkent informed The Diplomat.
Her mom, an worker at an area manufacturing facility making strengthened concrete merchandise for the development trade, is accustomed to Chinese language factories, their working situations, and wages. Formally, unemployment in Uzbekistan stood at 5.8 percent as of June 2024, nevertheless some specialists consider the determine to be greater.
“Individuals go away the native manufacturing facility to earn $50-$100 extra, however they will’t deal with it and return,” the Tashkent-resident informed The Diplomat. “China is opening companies all around the nation, continually saying: ‘We’re opening new factories and creating jobs.’ This largely advantages the Chinese language house owners, who pay comparatively excessive salaries – round 6-7 million sums ($550) – however the working situations are grueling. The Chinese language usually are not afraid to fireplace employees. They know that 3-4 individuals will probably be wanting to take the job, as a result of individuals don’t have any alternative.”
In recent times, Chinese investments in Uzbekistan’s economic system have quintupled, reaching $25 billion, and the variety of joint ventures has tripled.
In the summertime of 2024, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev attended the opening of the Chinese language BYD Uzbekistan Manufacturing unit in Jizzakh, his residence area, devoted to EV manufacturing. The plant has created 1,200 jobs and plans to ramp up manufacturing from 50,000 to 500,000 EVs yearly. China’s Xiaou Group plans to construct one other EV plant within the Fergana Valley, investing $1.5 billion over 5 years.
Regardless of a comparatively closed nationwide automotive trade, 20,080 Chinese language EVs had been imported into Uzbekistan within the first 10 months of 2024, up from 16,084 in 2023.
“Two years in the past, it was uncommon to see an electrical automotive in Tashkent. Now, each tenth automotive is a Chinese language BYD,” stated one other Tashkent resident.
Since Mirziyoyev signed a decree selling native EV manufacturing in 2022, he has emphasised the necessity to increase EV charging infrastructure. In December 2023, the Ministry of Power signed an settlement with China’s Henan Suda firm to ascertain 50,000 charging stations by 2033. EV imports are exempt from excise taxes, customs duties, and car charges. Taxi drivers utilizing electrical or hybrid automobiles are additionally exempt from licensing charges till 2030. Entrepreneurs putting in charging stations can profit from monetary incentives.
Abubakir, 31, an EV driver, says that Uzbek residents are quickly switching to electrical automobiles as a result of they’re less expensive and technologically superior.
“I’ve been driving a BYD since 2019,” he stated. “Regardless that Chinese language automobiles are low-cost on the secondary market, extra persons are buying electrical fashions. AI 95 [gasoline] prices $1 per liter, plus customs charges are decrease, and taxes are lowered. The market is monopolized, like UzAuto Motors, however has it ever been completely different for us?”
In keeping with reporting from investigative journalists with RFE/RL’s Uzbek Service, Ozodlik, the thriving auto enterprise in Uzbekistan is instantly linked to the president’s family. Yulduz Omonova, the youngest daughter of Inobat Mirziyoyeva, the president’s sister, owns personal firms promoting overseas automobiles. Yulduz’s husband, Sardor, is a member of the administration of the state-owned automotive producer UzAuto Motors.
Masalbekova notes that the authoritarian nature of governance and an absence of transparency impede progress in monitoring the main points of funding agreements.
“Weak rule of legislation within the area usually coincides with political elites’ connections, which steadily results in censorship and the persecution of investigative journalists,” she informed The Diplomat.
“Individuals know that the complete EV enterprise belongs to the president’s household, and instantly linked to the title of the president’s son–in-law, Otabek Umarov. All initiatives are supported by the Authorities. There is no such thing as a proof, and those that examine or communicate out are instantly imprisoned,” stated one other Tashkent resident who declined to share their title given the sensitivity of the topic.
Criticism of the president’s household is dear. The creator of the YouTube channel “Ko’zgu” (“Mirror”) Abdukadir Muminov was sentenced to seven years in prison on fraud and extortion charges, though rights teams say he was focused for his work specializing in the enterprise of Mirziyoyev’s sons-in-law.
Tajikistan
Tajikistan sits on the crossroads of China’s Belt and Highway initiative. Throughout Xi Jinping’s state go to in the summertime of 2024, new authorities buildings in Dushanbe – funded with $200 million in Chinese language cash – had been inaugurated. Over the previous decade, China has invested $2.6 billion in Tajikistan, with 57 % of it being direct investments. Greater than 700 firms with Chinese language participation have been established within the nation.
The Tajik authorities has actively promoted EVs by providing tax breaks and customs responsibility exemptions. The nation’s technique features a plan for the event of electrical transport between 2023-2028. This plan goals to put the groundwork for EV manufacturing and create infrastructure for the automobiles’ energy provide, servicing, and battery disposal.
Tajikistan’s EV imports have doubled since 2022. In 2023, Tajikistan imported 3,316 EVs price $59 million. By the primary half of 2024, exports of EVs reached 5,266, valued at $76.4 million, or 26.7 percent of total vehicle imports.
The technique units formidable targets, focusing on 20-30 percent of the country’s vehicle fleet to be electrical by 2030. Assist applications provide reductions on EVs, construct service facilities, and provide decrease costs for hybrid automobiles.
An nameless automotive knowledgeable from Dushanbe informed The Diplomat, “Discussing China’s affect on Tajikistan is dangerous in the present day.” However, the knowledgeable stated that, “EVs, largely imported from China, value round 170,000-220,000 somoni (15,000-20,000 {dollars}). Electrical energy is cheaper right here, whereas fuel and petroleum merchandise are costly, making EV a superb choice.”
These initiatives come amid a extreme vitality disaster. Early 2025 noticed extended blackouts, forcing many individuals to depend on firewood and dung for warmth. The principle trigger was declining river ranges, disrupting hydro crops that generate 98 percent of Tajikistan’s electricity. But, regardless of shortages, electrical energy exports introduced in $102.4 million within the first 10 months of final 12 months.
“Firms like BYD and BAIC have opened service facilities in Tajikistan, offering residents entry to vital automobile elements and providers,” the automotive knowledgeable stated “Dushanbe signed an settlement with a Chinese language firm to open a manufacturing facility that may assemble not less than 1,500 EVs yearly. Though it’s simply an settlement for now, the challenge is predicted quickly.”
He declined to touch upon China’s affect in Dushanbe or the general public opinion on the Chinese language automotive trade.
Anybody important of China or questioning Dushanbe’s strategic companion faces repercussions. On January 23, media experiences, later amplified by Human Rights Watch, claimed that investigative Tajik journalist Ruhshona Khakimova is topic to a “secret” trial by which she could face “treason” costs stemming from a survey she carried out on China’s affect in Tajikistan.
Kazakhstan
Within the spring of 2024, Astana hosted Chinese language Overseas Minister Wang Yi for an official go to. Following the assembly with Wang, Kazakh Overseas Minister Murat Nurtleu stated that “the proposal from the Chinese language facet to ascertain EV manufacturing in Kazakhstan will probably be totally supported by the Kazakh facet.” Wang additionally shared China’s plans to localize the manufacturing of EVs in Kazakhstan.
In 2023, Kazakhstan skilled a major improve within the variety of registered electrical automobiles, rising 9.2 occasions, from 914 to eight,366 models. This surge is because of the Eurasian Financial Union’s choice to increase the duty-free import of electrical automobiles till the tip of 2025, which can allow shoppers to avoid wasting about 15 percent of the vehicle’s customs value.
Astana is actively growing the EV trade with the help of Chinese language manufacturing, regardless of challenges resembling vitality shortages and outdated energy grids. The federal government has already handed a legislation establishing a roadmap for infrastructure, to be carried out by 2029.
In keeping with the forecast within the doc, the variety of EVs in Kazakhstan could attain 40,173 by 2035.
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan has develop into the main re-exporter of Chinese language automobiles to Russia amongst Central Asian international locations.
In 2023, Kyrgyzstan imported $651 million price of Chinese language hybrid automobiles, the equal of about 5 % of GDP. In 2024, 7,541 EVs, valued at $219.8 million, had been delivered.
In keeping with Umarov, EVs usually are not labeled as dual-use items and thus keep away from secondary sanctions, permitting Chinese language firms to function in Russia with out restrictions. “Gross sales of Chinese language automobiles, together with EVs, proceed to develop legally in Russia,” he famous.
A Kyrgyz businessman lively within the Chinese language EV market since 2019 informed The Diplomat, “Kyrgyz customs makes imports simple, whereas Russian tariffs on newer automobiles are prohibitively excessive. Importers clear automobiles at EAEU charges in Kyrgyzstan, then resell them in Russia at a small margin. A course of largely managed by Chinese language exporters themselves.”
Kyrgyzstan accounts for 7.7 % of Russia’s new automotive imports, however as of April 1, 2024, new Russian laws have restricted EAEU-rate imports, impacting re-exports.
“We’re adjusting as a result of excessive recycling charges, costly loans, and a weaker ruble,” the businessman stated. “Nonetheless, due to authorities foresight, re-exports proceed beneath new customs guidelines aligned with Russian laws.”
In the meantime, China’s Neta Motors is increasing into Kyrgyzstan. In February 2024, building started on an EV and business truck plant close to Bishkek in collaboration with Hubei Zhuoyue Group, with an preliminary $115 million funding.
China accounts for 36.7 % of the republic’s exterior debt, making it the nation’s largest creditor.
Umarov highlighted one of the crucial controversial Chinese language tasks in Kyrgyzstan within the final decade: the modernization of Bishkek’s thermal energy plant by the Chinese language firm TBEA. The challenge turned a political flashpoint in January 2018 when it broke down throughout a harsh cold-spell. The then-prime minister was later sentenced to 15 years on corruption costs associated to the challenge. What was initially offered as a helpful funding finally become a expensive scandal, though no Chinese language had been ever held to account for his or her half within the mess.
Turkmenistan
In 2023, Turkmenistan acquired its first batch of 10 E-J7 EVs from China’s JAC Motors, together with 5 60 kW charging stations. These automobiles are designated to be used as metropolis taxis in Arkadag, a metropolis purpose-built with sensible applied sciences and eco-friendly infrastructure and named after former President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov’s title.
The introduction of Chinese language EVs in Arkadag aligns with Turkmenistan’s broader technique to modernize city infrastructure and promote sustainable applied sciences. The set up of charging stations underscores the nation’s dedication to growing the mandatory help for electrical mobility.
“Whereas information on Turkmenistan is scarce, China’s dominance within the nation’s fuel sector – accounting for 80 % of Turkmenistan’s exports – means that favorable situations have been created for Chinese language firms,” stated Umarov.
Turkmenistan has additionally been invited to the 2025 International Exhibition of New Power Transport Applied sciences in China, signaling Beijing’s curiosity in deepening collaboration on electrical automobile growth.
The Rising Influence of China in Central Asia’s EV Market
Every Central Asian nation interacts with China in another way based mostly on its distinctive financial and political context. Kazakhstan balances its ties with China, localizing EV manufacturing whereas growing broader infrastructure for sustainability. Uzbekistan depends closely on Chinese language investments, with fast progress within the EV sector and regarding alleged political ties between the president’s household and Chinese language companies. Kyrgyzstan serves as a re-export hub for Chinese language EVs, particularly to Russia, benefiting from its strategic place however with out large-scale industrial growth. Tajikistan focuses on Chinese language investments in infrastructure and inexperienced applied sciences, aligning with China’s broader pursuits, however political sensitivities exist. And Turkmenistan primarily engages with China on vitality tasks, with a rising curiosity in Chinese language EVs for city modernization.
China’s increasing position in Central Asia’s EV market is remodeling the area’s transportation panorama. Financial, political, and environmental traits are accelerating this shift, with China on the forefront, driving each commerce and infrastructure growth.
Past financial advantages, China is leveraging diplomacy to deepen its strategic affect. By integrating its expertise and financial fashions into Central Asia, Beijing isn’t just increasing its financial footprint but additionally shaping the area’s political and industrial future.
“As EV adoption, infrastructure growth, and joint manufacturing tasks develop, so does the area’s dependency on Chinese language investments,” stated Masalbekova. “China is solidifying its picture not simply as an financial powerhouse, however as a frontrunner in superior expertise.”
