With 10 races in the rearview mirror, the Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the 2026 Wurth 400 on Sunday. The green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET with Tyler Reddick atop the NASCAR standings. He’s one of nine NASCAR Texas winners over the last nine races at the track, which certainly won’t make it easy to make Wurth 400 DFS picks or 2026 NASCAR at Texas predictions. Meanwhile, Carson Hocevar is coming off his first Cup Series win last week which has given him a bump up the latest NASCAR Texas odds.
However, it’s Denny Hamlin who is the +500 favorite, followed by Reddick (+600) and Kyle Larson (+600). Despite last week’s Talladega win, Hocevar is still only priced at +1600 to make it back-to-back victories. He will start on the pole for the second time in his Cup Series career. The latest 2026 Wurth 400 odds have Brad Keselowski, who has eight top 10s over his last nine Texas starts, as a +2500 longshot. Before locking in any NASCAR Texas predictions or NASCAR DFS lineups, you need to see the projected leaderboard from Mike McClure’s proven model.
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McClure is a legendary professional DFS player with more than $2 million in career winnings. He uses a powerful prediction model that simulates every lap of NASCAR action 10,000 times. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 29 winners since 2021 and hit 11 winners in 2025. Anyone following his NASCAR betting picks at their favorite sportsbooks could have seen huge returns.
Now, McClure has turned his attention to the NASCAR Wurth 400. He’s only sharing his best bets at SportsLine.
2026 NASCAR at Texas predictions
For NASCAR at Texas 2026, McClure is fading Tyler Reddick (+600), saying he doesn’t even crack the top 5 despite being one of the favorites. It’s been a historic season for 23XI Racing and Reddick, who is the first driver since 1987 to win five of the first nine races. However, since linking up with Michael Jordan’s team, Reddick hasn’t had the same TMS success as when with Richard Childress Racing. Reddick was runner-up in his first NASCAR Texas start with RCR and then won the race in his last Texas trip with Childress. Yet, he has just a 16.7 average finish at the track since joining 23XI, with his two worst finishes across 10 career Texas Motor Speedway starts coming with Jordan’s team.
Another surprise: Joey Logano (+2700) is projected to make a strong run towards the title. The three-time Cup Series champion has had a rough start to the season, which has led to these long odds, but one can’t overlook what he’s done at Texas Motor Speedway. Logano is one of three active drivers with multiple Texas victories as he enters Sunday’s race as the defending winner. Even when he doesn’t win, Logano often finds himself in competition for a checkered flag as he has three top 5s over his last five NASCAR Texas starts. Over his last 23 trips to the DFW track, Larson’s placed in the top 5 an astounding 14 times, which is a 61% clip. See which other drivers the model is backing at SportsLine.
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How to make 2026 Wurth 400 picks
McClure is also high on two other longshots of at least +2700 who make a run for the top of the leaderboard, including a massive longshot of at least +7000, potentially netting any backer a huge payday. You can only see who it is here.
So who wins the 2026 Wurth 400, and which massive longshots could stun NASCAR at Texas? Visit SportsLine now to see the 2026 NASCAR Wurth 400 picks and best bets from a NASCAR model that nailed 11 winners last year, and find out.
2026 NASCAR at Texas odds, lineup
See full NASCAR Wurth 400 picks at SportsLine
(Odds from FanDuel, subject to change)
Denny Hamlin +500
Kyle Larson +600
Tyler Reddick +600
Ryan Blaney +900
Christopher Bell +1000
William Byron +1100
Chase Elliott +1400
Chase Briscoe +1400
Carson Hocevar +1600
Bubba Wallace +1800
Ty Gibbs +1900
Chris Buescher +2200
Brad Keselowski +2500
Joey Logano +2700
Ross Chastain +4000
Ryan Preece +5000
Austin Cindric +5000
Alex Bowman +5000
Daniel Suarez +6000
Corey Heim +7000
Kyle Busch +8000
Erik Jones +10000
Josh Berry +10000
Michael McDowell +10000
Zane Smith +12500
Austin Dillon +12500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +17500
Connor Zilisch +20000
AJ Allmendinger +20000
Noah Gragson +25000
John Hunter Nemechek +25000
Riley Herbst +25000
Shane van Gisbergen +25000
Todd Gilliland +30000
Chad Finchum +50000
Ty Dillon +50000
Cole Custer +50000
Cody Ware +50000
