Throughout the buildup to the 2026 NFL Draft, there’s been little debate about who will go No. 1 overall.
What happens after that is far less clear. In conversations this week, two NFL college scouting directors gave completely different projections for picks 2 through 5 (the only overlap being Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1) which underscores how much of an unknown landscape we face ahead of Thursday night’s first round.
That lack of consensus extends beyond the top five, showing up in how teams view the quarterback class, which prospects could ultimately sneak into Round 1 and how aggressive teams may be in trying to move around the board Thursday night.
Putting my sources on the spot about the top of the draft
Here’s how those two aforementioned scouting directors projected picks 1–5:
Projection A:
- No. 1: Raiders — Fernando Mendoza, QB (Indiana)
- No. 2: Jets — David Bailey, EDGE (Texas Tech)
- No. 3: Cardinals — Arvell Reese, EDGE (Ohio State)
- No. 4: Titans — Francis Mauigoa, OT (Miami)
- No. 5: Giants — Caleb Downs, S (Ohio State)
Projection B:
- No. 1: Raiders — Fernando Mendoza, QB (Indiana)
- No. 2: Jets — Arvell Reese, EDGE (Ohio State)
- No. 3: Cardinals — David Bailey, EDGE (Texas Tech)
- No. 4: Titans — Jeremiyah Love, RB (Notre Dame)
- No. 5: Giants — Sonny Styles, LB (Ohio State)
The differences, particularly after split opinion of Bailey vs. Reese, reflect the wide range of opinions around this class beyond the top pick.
QB market is fluid, with Carson Beck gaining steam
While Mendoza’s landing spot in Vegas is set, the rest of the quarterback board is far less defined in what is considered to be a poor year for talent at the position.
Alabama’s Ty Simpson is widely viewed as the second quarterback off the board, but even his range varies depending on who you ask. One college scouting director projected him inside the top 20, while others see him going somewhere between picks 24–35 — either late in the first round or very early on Day 2.
Beyond Simpson, there is a healthy debate as to who will be QB3 and when they will be picked. Miami’s Carson Beck, the No. 202 player in the CBS Sports prospect rankings, has emerged as one of the more intriguing wild cards.
Getty Images
The general consensus among personnel staffers is still Beck is more likely to be selected in the late second to third round. However, multiple sources — including a player personnel director, a Southeast area scout and a pass game coach — said they could see a team taking Beck earlier than expected, potentially even late in the first round or early in the second.
“I know the public perception but he’s an experienced, good, talented thrower that’s really smart and he’s ready to go,” a player personnel director said. “So I could see a team taking him as early as [Round 1].”
Beck started 43 games in college and threw for 3,813 yards and 30 touchdowns last season at Miami while completing 72.4% of his passes. He was once a darling of NFL evaluators, entering the 2024 season at Georgia as the projected QB1 of the 2025 draft class. Turnover-prone play and and an elbow injury compromised those projections and Beck transferred to Miami, where he has reemerged as an early round draft prospect.
Another QB still intriguing to some around the league is Penn State’s Drew Allar, despite uneven college tape. While a number of personnel staffers have said that Allar’s college tape left a lot to be desired, the 6-foot-5, 228-pound three-year starter, who was a former top-5 recruit, has supporters. One coach told CBS Sports that he likes Allar better than both Beck and Simpson.
“The one guy that could be kind of a surprise is Drew Allar,” the coach said. “I think his talents and skill set translate really well to the NFL. I think a lot of people would’ve said that going into the 2025 season and then people have probably dropped off on him since his 2025 season, but I personally think he has a lot of tools and resources that he’s going to be able to use that will translate. I think he’s got to learn a little bit, as every quarterback does coming to this level, but I think he’s kind of the sleeper that’s not getting a lot of talk.”
That coach believes Day 2 would be an appropriate range for Allar to be selected.
“He’s big. He’s tall. He’s more athletic than people expect, too,” the coach said. “He’s also got a natural throwing motion and arm strength that you can probably tighten up his accuracy a little bit by just conceptually teaching him reads and also cleaning up his feet. That was one of the things that popped out to me on tape when I first started watching him was just the top of his drop was a little bit off. If you can clean that up and smooth that out, I think his accuracy is going to improve.”
Prospects gaining late momentum
Several non-quarterbacks have also generated buzz in recent days as potential surprise first-round picks.
UCF edge rusher Malachi Lawrence and San Diego State cornerback Chris Johnson have been among the most frequently mentioned names by personnel staffers in conversations this week. Lawrence recorded seven sacks last season and tested well at the combine, while Johnson — a second-team All-American — posted a 4.40 40-yard dash.
“Kind of a sleeper, but I think he could go in the first,” a player personnel director said of Johnson.
Arizona safety Treydan Stukes is also viewed as a strong candidate to go early on Day 2 and could push into the back end of the first round.
Other names mentioned as players who could go earlier than expected include North Dakota State wide receiver Bryce Lance, Mississippi State wide receiver Brennan Thompson, Arkansas running back Mike Washington and Stephen F. Austin cornerback Charles Demmings.
Trade activity expected Thursday night
There’s a growing belief around the league that Thursday night could feature significant movement. That theory flies in the face of the idea that a shorter time on the clock may lead to trade paralysis, or that a weaker pool of prospects may fog up the trade value picture.
Multiple sources pointed to a lack of blue-chip depth in this class as a reason teams may look to either trade up for specific targets or move back to accumulate value.
“Seems like a lot of teams in the first round are looking to trade out because of lack of depth,” a player personnel director said. “You either go up to get your guy or you’re at the back of [Round 1] and you trade out and hope for kind of a value pick in the second.”
That dynamic could lead to a first round defined as much by movement as by the picks themselves.
